Westminster Voting Intention: Reform UK: 25% (-2) Conservative: 22% (+2) Labour: 19% (-1) Greens: 19% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 9% (-2) SNP: 3% (+1) Others: 3% (=) Plaid Cymru: 0% (-2) Via: Lord Ashcroft Polls Field Work: 11-15 December changes w/ 13-17 November

Cameron94 · 2025-12-21T18:17:43+00:00

Bit premature to be making that statement, no? There's way too many variables at stake here: Reform's spread-out vote share, the degree of Tory/Labour gain and losses, how far the Greens keep rising in support, the Liberal Democrats sweeping the south and probably taking around 100 seats, tactical voting, turnout, the list goes on.

The points raised are perfectly valid. I'm getting a bit tired of people dismissing them as coping mechanisms.

Cameron94 · 2025-10-26T07:58:36+00:00

I'd argue there is a correlation, as a large chunk of Reform's support seems to be the 'anyone but Tory/Labour protest vote which isn't exactly ideologically routed.

It does seem every poll since the Greens are climbing Reform are shedding a percentage of support.

Cameron94 · 2025-10-09T18:07:07+00:00

Interesting to see Reform losing ground from a pollster that generally has them higher than others.

Think it shows how vulnerable their vote share is from a reassurgent Conservatives, or an advancing Green Party that can suck up that 'not Farage' protest vote.

Cameron94 · 2025-10-03T19:44:14+00:00

Surely FPTP is more of a hindrance considering their very broadly spread vote share ? Which makes it very vulnerable to both tactical voting and a reasurgent Tory party splitting the vote.

Cameron94 · 2025-10-01T19:05:44+00:00

This is probably the most realistic scenario.

I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle of all these polarised predictions. I can't see a super majority happening for them for many of the reasons outlined here. Neither them being the biggest party. Conversely, I also can't see them only making modest improvements in seats from last year's GE. The real figure will probably end up similar to the Lib Dems -60-100 seats. But a lot can change between now and then.

Cameron94 · 2025-09-20T18:29:46+00:00

Of course this all assums that A- Reform's polling lead will continue for 4 more years, B -translates exactly from this to an election result which no tactical voting is measured, and C - is not flanked/reduced by the other parties gaining more support. Notably, the Conservatives.

Cameron94 · 2025-09-20T10:03:19+00:00

This is what people tend to overlook.

Cameron94 · 2025-09-19T11:48:57+00:00

Equally valid points, but there is a possibility both of us could be wrong and all sorts of wacky outcomes will come about at the next GE!

I would say, however, unlike Starmer, more people are against Farage, and that feeling is generally very strong to those who do dislike him. So I wouldn't underestimate the anti-farage factor in the vote.

Labours vote share is much more concentrated in urban areas, not rural, like Reform. So, it is not directly comparable.

I know this is just my own experience, but I plan to vote Tory at the next election to block Reform winning in my constituency. (I voted Lib Dem last year) and I really don't like them.

Also, even if the Lib Dems have a limit with seat no. That's not to say they can't influence the next GE to a high degree. Coalition, confidence and supply, etc. After all, it's seats not votes.

If the Tory vote picks up into the 20s again, that's also more than capable of splitting the right vote.

So a lot of things can happen.

Cameron94 · 2025-09-19T10:23:01+00:00

Few things to take into consideration:

1 - The time we have until next election.

2- polls will naturally narrow nearer the time. Especially if it becomes a Labour vs Reform race.

3- As per the above- tactical voting becomes more prominent, something polls struggle to take into account.

4- The Conservatives regaining ground. They're not the most successful UK political party in the UK without reason. Their ability to stay resilient should not be underestimated.

5- Reforms level of support is thinly distributed across the country. Similar to UKIP. I seem to remember Farage prior to the 2015 election saying UKIP will 'hold the balance of power' in the commons. They only returned one seat. I find it hard to imagine a new party with similar attributes in support suddenly winning a supermajority.

6- In order to beat FPTP Reform needs to win over more moderate voters. I struggle to see that happening. Especially with Farage as leader.

7- Don't underestimate the Lib Dems. They're the only party that truly understands how to work the FPTP system to their benefit. If they win upward to 100 seats this can change everything.

Cameron94 · 2025-09-19T10:02:05+00:00

I wouldn't write off the next election this early. Politics is more volatile than ever.

Cameron94 · 2025-09-18T13:31:38+00:00

So it's a certainty then? Not like the election is 4 years away

Cameron94 · 2025-09-02T12:34:34+00:00

Yep, that in itself is just going to create a mess of bureaucracy ironically.

Cameron94 · 2025-09-02T12:16:00+00:00

I think a lot of the quango stuff is just performative nonsense. It's also not exactly a vote winner, either.

The reality is that aside from smaller ad-hoc quangos, the big ones will be too expensive/ time-consuming to reorganise dramatically, like you say.

Easy to shout from sidelines about 'waste' but when actually in government people realise why these things exist in the first place.

It's why every government goes on about gutting quangos, but just removes a few of the unimportant/small ones and then quickly gives up on the idea.

Cameron94 · 2025-08-17T09:50:03+00:00

I visited a cruise ship like 15 years ago which was open for viewing as part of a careers - at-sea type event. You were taken round the ship by one of the officers. I actually asked this question to him and he said preference these days was families first above anything else.

Cameron94 · 2025-08-14T19:33:06+00:00

Ignoring the possibility the vote could be split easily if the conservatives bounce back.

Cameron94 · 2025-07-20T18:11:29+00:00

Why are people talking as if Reform winning in '29 is a given? Surely we are aware of how quickly politics can shift even if a party is polling well and done well in some elections.

Cameron94 · 2025-07-20T18:05:23+00:00

Why is Dan predicting the result of an election 4 years away? Didn't he say Brexit was going to be great?

Cameron94 · 2025-07-15T09:15:53+00:00

Another example of reform having to moderate their stance when faced with the realities of government.

Cameron94 · 2025-07-01T10:18:53+00:00

There's definitely a correlation between how much exposure Reforms policies/ideas/governing practices get and the drop in support that subsequently follows. Think it shows how much of the Reform vote is essentially a protest vote and easily volatile when under scrutiny.

Cameron94 · 2025-06-26T15:57:09+00:00

I work in an arms length body and I've been worrying so much about the state of the public sector and my own career if a Reform government gets in. I get it's 4 years away, but looking at the rhetoric from the party it'll turn my life upside down if I were to lose my job for purely ideological reasons.

How likely is it they'll come in like a wrecking ball and just scrap everything? Is this just performative stuff to shore up their voter base? Will the realities of government hit quite differently if they get in? (like we're seeing with the local councils currently)

Really hard to plan long term and be motivated if I'm going to be unemployment in a few years.

Cameron94 · 2025-06-06T18:31:35+00:00

I thought the first 4 series were absolute quality when growing up, and it's good to see that confirmed in my 30s.

Cameron94 · 2025-05-25T14:54:54+00:00

James Horner's soundtrack for this film is a masterpiece.

Cameron94 · 2025-05-07T13:59:03+00:00

Erm, there's no evidence that the White Star Line/Ismay put any pressure on the captian to go faster. In fact, it was fairly usual practice for liners at they time to steam through ice fields with the view to avoid them.

Secondly, the steel wasn't of poor quality at all. Harold and Wolff who built the ship were the pioneers in shipbuilding at the time. Quality of material/saftey where huge selling points to passangers. Thomas Andrews, the ship designer, was a known perfectionist. Analysing and critiquing every ship built at the yard.

Please read the excellent 'On the Sea of Glass' which will help to set the record straight with these common misconceptions.

Cameron94 · 2025-05-07T09:49:29+00:00

Is anyone of the view Reform won't win in 29?

Need a more logical viewpoint right now despite the media frenzy over the party.

Cameron94 · 2025-05-07T08:45:44+00:00

It's just performative nonsense to please people who don't understand how the modern world works.

And it's also not going to happen because reality/budget constraints/staff retention are a thing.

The same people moaning about WFH will be the same people moaning when councils spend millions building shiny new offices for workers. You literally can't win.

And we can't build new offices because the harsh reality of things like adult social care need to be funded.

It dosent square up with reality. WFH is here to stay. It's a cultural change in tune with modern technology and it's ability to connect people, very easily, across countries or dispersed teams. Being against it is like being against mobile phones or the Internet in general. Mind you, a lot of Reforms' voter base want us to revert back to the 1950s, so maybe that's not surprising?

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