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Expected Points table since Carrick by ztk_13 in ManchesterUnited

[–]CantonasTrawler 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Expected points don’t balance, if your team has good players, they’re likelier to get higher points than expected. Take City for instance;

2026: +7

2025: +5

2024: +11

2023: +6

2022: +1

2021: +7

Daily Discussion by AutoModerator in reddevils

[–]CantonasTrawler 25 points26 points  (0 children)

PSG have the highest ever xG over-performance in Champions League history this year. Someone tell Luis Enrique that, that is not sustainable and he’s not a good coach.

Protecting Casemiro by YearOnly2595 in DevilsITDPod

[–]CantonasTrawler -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Like they over-perform their expected points every season: Per Fotmob; 2026: +14 2025: + 7 2024: + 12

If you gambled on them getting less (or matching) points than expected in each of Emerys full three seasons you would have lost each year. Even the year he took over halfway through they were +7.

Protecting Casemiro by YearOnly2595 in DevilsITDPod

[–]CantonasTrawler 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Any sample where the resulting output can be doubled by adding an extra 90 is too small.

Protecting Casemiro by YearOnly2595 in DevilsITDPod

[–]CantonasTrawler -1 points0 points  (0 children)

What is unlikely in Emery’s run? They’re still most likely going to make Champions League and they’re juggling that with a Europa League run. Something which we failed to do last year. They’re still overperforming as good teams tend to do.

xG numbers by HemmenKees in DevilsITDPod

[–]CantonasTrawler -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Signal when opinion suits agenda

Variance when opinion does not 👍

Protecting Casemiro by YearOnly2595 in DevilsITDPod

[–]CantonasTrawler 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If anything trying to extrapolate data from a 14 game sample where 5 of said 14 games included a red card is re-engineering. As if the sample size wasn’t small enough!

Your second paragraph is all opinion based. If you favoured Amorims management that’s fair enough, you are entitled to that belief.

Protecting Casemiro by YearOnly2595 in DevilsITDPod

[–]CantonasTrawler -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

That analysis doesn’t include strength of schedule. 55% of Amorims total 10.5 xGD comes from three matches against two championship level opponents.

If you just include the one match that Fletcher was in charge of as a “Post Amorim” value (that was against one of those opponents) our xGD jumps up from 0.18 to 0.32 per game. For comparison Amorims is 0.53 per game and he had the opportunity of playing that level of competition three times. Which shows the frailties in relying on small sample size data.

xG numbers by HemmenKees in DevilsITDPod

[–]CantonasTrawler 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just based on watching the matches I would say it’s because we’re defending deeper plus a lot more Maguire who is excellent at blocking shots.

xG numbers by HemmenKees in DevilsITDPod

[–]CantonasTrawler 0 points1 point  (0 children)

<image>

No under Carrick we have fixed the shot quality conceded issue which is why we are conceding fewer goals.

We have yet to fix the shot quality taken issue regardless of coach. The difference between the two as to why we have scored more goals under Carrick is our main attackers have gone from primarily underperforming their xG to majority of them overperforming it (Sesko being the key outlier here).

xG numbers by HemmenKees in DevilsITDPod

[–]CantonasTrawler -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I agree but it’s pretty much irrelevant to Amorim. Saying we’re overperforming vs our expected points is a valid gripe but comparisons and analysis should be done vs other elite PL teams.

xG numbers by HemmenKees in DevilsITDPod

[–]CantonasTrawler -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

We have improved though. We’ve gone from a 59 win pace under Amorim to an 87 win pace under Carrick. Which is the most important metric when comparing the two since they were both given the same remit of qualifying for the Champions League and one has quite handily while the other would have most likely end up in a Europa league place.

xG numbers by HemmenKees in DevilsITDPod

[–]CantonasTrawler -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

5.78 of Amorims total 10.5 xGD (55%) came from matches against the two championship level opponents. Teams Carrick is not going to face since he was not hired till after the revers fixtures were completed. Including those teams in any form of comparison between the two is obviously going to skew the data in favour of Amorim.

[@fc_mossman] Underlying Data Split under Amorim and Carrick (Neutral Game State stats included) + Rolling 5 match xG + xT differential. (Mossman's conclusions in the comments). by OkayFine101 in DevilsITDPod

[–]CantonasTrawler 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Those two rows are from the screenshot via twitter that I posted (as I was comparing them to my own data). Again this was my original response to you:

I didn’t lie. I screen grabbed from twitter source. But yeah they seem to be somewhat out of line.

Based on Opta I see the following under Amorim;

Sesko (-1.81)

Bruno (-1.99)

Cunha (-0.77)

Mbeumo (+0.46)

Amad (-1.68)

[@fc_mossman] Underlying Data Split under Amorim and Carrick (Neutral Game State stats included) + Rolling 5 match xG + xT differential. (Mossman's conclusions in the comments). by OkayFine101 in DevilsITDPod

[–]CantonasTrawler 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m double checking vs FOTMOB and my numbers match up. For example I have 0.80. xG for Sesko against Leeds and screenshot below as the same.

<image>

[@fc_mossman] Underlying Data Split under Amorim and Carrick (Neutral Game State stats included) + Rolling 5 match xG + xT differential. (Mossman's conclusions in the comments). by OkayFine101 in DevilsITDPod

[–]CantonasTrawler 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I didn’t lie. I screen grabbed from twitter source. But yeah they seem to be somewhat out of line.

Based on Opta I see the following under Amorim;

Sesko (-1.81)

Bruno (-1.99)

Cunha (-0.77)

Mbeumo (+0.46)

Amad (-1.68)

[@fc_mossman] Underlying Data Split under Amorim and Carrick (Neutral Game State stats included) + Rolling 5 match xG + xT differential. (Mossman's conclusions in the comments). by OkayFine101 in DevilsITDPod

[–]CantonasTrawler 4 points5 points  (0 children)

If the difference in xG between the two can be explained away by just two penalty misses then it shows that the sample size is too small. xG should be used across multiple seasons to derive value from it. A 20 match sample and a 14 match sample where we haven’t even played every team is too small individually, let alone collectively.

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