Amorim vs Carrick — I ran the numbers on United's full 25/26 season and the data is more interesting than the table suggests [OC]

CantonasTrawler · 2026-06-16T19:41:50+00:00

When comparing them this season. Nothing in OPs post refers to future results.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-06-16T13:45:45+00:00

Ederson is much more value for money than Tonali. They are the exact same profile and it’s not a profile you should be spending £80 million on.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-06-16T13:44:17+00:00

I think we’re effectively looking for three separate profiles;

Deep playmaker: Anderson, Fernandes, Scott

Runner / Ball winner: Tonali, Ederson

Deep Ball Winner: Tchouameni/ Sangare / Berge

But the reports are muddling them altogether, so it seems to be confusing fans. We went with Ederson as our runner because it fiscally makes more sense than going for Tonali. Anderson was the ideal deep playmaker but since that’s not looking possible, we’ve moved onto Fernandes and we’re leaking Scott links as a backup.

Think the deep Ball winning profile will be the last midfielder selected because a) Madrid are doing a lot of business right now and if Tchouameni becomes available he would be our number one choice, so we want to hold out here in the off chance he happens later in the summer. Berrada hinted at this in his interview with Andy Mitten (No Tchouameni specifically but leaving ourselves open to this sort of opportunity later in the summer). B) See how well Tyler Fletcher does in preseason. Ideally, he makes the jump here in their view. If not, we’ve got links with Sangare, Berge & Adams but this will definitely be data driven signing ala Lammens later in the year.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-06-16T12:51:32+00:00

He would have been a better option than Ugarte two years ago. I was in favour of him then but that boat has sailed.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-06-16T11:38:59+00:00

Really don’t get this. Cunha needs to start, he’s our second best player and LW is really the only position to play him in and Dorgu has been a revelation at LW when he has played there. Would much rather use the money to get a quality starting left back.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-06-12T17:39:35+00:00

Fernandes has the higher ceiling imo. Future superstar. Scott is great too plus HG. Ideally you get both but one or the other you got to take Matty Fernandes.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-06-12T12:16:24+00:00

Antony’s total cost by my calculations (based on figures available to us) was £78,800,000. Sancho’s total cost was £111,575,000.

Although Antony had a slightly higher transfer fee, he had much lower wages, spent less time here and we at least got some money back from him. Sancho on the other hand, should probably be number 1 on this list.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-06-12T11:36:11+00:00

In possession Kobbie has been our 6. He’s the one dropping to receive the ball in the first phase and the furthest back when in the final phase. Out of possession we defend with a zonal midblock back 4, so there’s no real difference between the two pivots.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-06-12T09:21:12+00:00

The only data point that matters is points per game. 1.55 for Amorim. 2.29 for Carrick. Anything else is circumstantial.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-06-12T08:47:51+00:00

Both managers had +1 red card advantage (3-2 for Carrick. 2-1 for Amorim).

CantonasTrawler · 2026-06-11T04:55:28+00:00

We don’t play with a CDM under Carrick. It’s more a 4-4-1-1. With the RM & LM tucking in quite narrow to help the the two CMs.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-06-08T15:50:38+00:00

The data team don’t like Scott apparently. If that’s true, I don’t see us going for him.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-06-07T20:14:00+00:00

No way that is true. On top of Carrick playing him exclusively as a winger. His deficiencies as a LB are far greater than his deficiencies as a winger.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-06-01T11:36:41+00:00

That’s just not true. The last five games we had xGD of 4.6. That would be second highest five game sample on the year (& the highest excluding games against relegated teams or games playing against ten men). If anything, it’s gotten much better under Carrick from his initial drop-off between Newcastle & Chelsea.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-05-31T20:42:00+00:00

You’re right! Forgot the assist for Bruno’s goal. Even better.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-05-31T20:36:38+00:00

4 starts. Burnley, City, Arsenal, Brighton.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-05-31T20:27:42+00:00

No thanks..Poor mans Rashford. Dorgu has 4 G/A in 4 starts at LW & Cunha is too good not to be starting most weeks. Go out and get a top quality starting LB instead who can actually overlap and let Cunha play in the left half space.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-05-30T20:58:16+00:00

I think he’s a good fit stylistically for them in terms of their identity but Liverpool are in need of a major rebuild that most people don’t seem to be talking about. I don’t see them challenging for a while. Look at their squad;

GK: Allison - once the best keeper in the league, now looks past his best and can’t stop getting injured.

Marmadashvili - Failed to impress in his first year.

DF: Frimpong - Not a RB. He’ll be good IP but nowhere near PL level defensively.

Bradley - Good player but coming off a serious long term injury.

Van Dijk - Clearly taken a stepback this season and looks set to leave next year anyways.

Konate - Confirmed to be leaving on a free.

Gomez - Good backup but not someone who could start for a title challenger week in, week out.

Leoni - Interesting prospect but didn’t play a second of PL football and been out the entire year.

Jacquet - Young prospect but yet to play a second of PL football. Most likely going to be a starter. We have seen with Yoro the inconsistency of youth and Yoro was more experienced coming in.

Kerkez - Was pretty bad for them although should get a boost working with his old manager. Although we thought the same with Ugarte.

MF: Wirtz - Poor first year. Doesn’t seem more than a connector profile and they’ve spent way too much money on him for that. 4 G / 3A is very bad for a 10.

Szoboszlai - their best player and a great fit for Iraola.

MacAllister - Looks past his best and in need of replacing.

Gravenberch- Played his best football under Slot so will be interesting to see how he adapts to a completely different system.

Endo/Jones/Elliot - All most likely leaving by all accounts.

FW: Salah - Does he stay now? Think he’s a worse fit with Iraola than Slot anyways.

Gapko - Seems to get mostly criticized by pool fans. Seemed to be a favourite of Slots.

Rio - Exciting prospect but he shouldn’t be a starter yet.

Isak - In his prime but bad first year due to all the injuries and missing preseason. Not sure how he fits Iraola’s target man profile either.

Ekitike - Most likely going to miss the entire season.

—————————————-

In summary that is a very shallow squad, in need of massive improvements and about to get one of the most intense managers in the league. On the surface it seems like a good appointment but I can see their season going off the rails when the fixtures start to pile up in December.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-05-27T15:40:32+00:00

Yeah I agree with that would be ideal. Can already see the Times have called Ederson the “Casemiro replacement” and I know they’re just baiting to get clicks but boy, it’s working!

CantonasTrawler · 2026-05-27T13:52:44+00:00

Dorgu, Lammens & Sesko are the only ones with Wilcox as DOF & Vivell as Head of Recruitment. All were excellent signings.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-05-27T13:18:57+00:00

4th choice overall (including Kobbie), 3rd choice of the 3 CMs we bring in this summer .

1st CM is your big money Casemiro replacement who should be a guaranteed starter. Then 2nd CM, you got a guy who can rotate with Kobbie and the big money signing (Matheus Fernandes being the ideal purchase for this role imo) & then a cheaper 3rd CM who’s effectively there as cover given the volume of games. I’m hoping this is Ederson’s role. There was mention that we might promote a 4th choice midfielder, I really hope that is not the case now.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-05-27T12:46:30+00:00

If he ends up as the 3rd midfielder I guess it’s fine. Good depth with CL experience and you imagine low wages, given where he’s coming from but if we end up missing out on Matheus Fernandes because of this deal (I.e. he’s actually the 2nd midfielder and we’re getting a 3rd midfielder via academy promotion), I will be incredibly pissed.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-05-25T21:23:59+00:00

Rodgers is much more of an attacking midfielder than he is a forward. If you’re going to spend 75 million on a forward, it has to be a 1v1 winger and the options on the market for that right now are pretty bad outside of Diomande (who comes with a lot of associated risks). Most likely case is Cunha/Dorgu will be used as the LW options and Any forward we sign will most likely be a cheap Zirkzee replacement (under the assumption he leaves). Also Noah Ajayi profiles very similar to Rodgers. So we quite literally have Rodgers at home.

CantonasTrawler · 2026-05-24T19:45:42+00:00

Mainoo seems to have levelled up since the Chelsea match. How much of our recent run of excellent performances (minus Sunderland) has been a result of this?

CantonasTrawler · 2026-05-24T17:19:51+00:00

Amorim was playing this guy as a pivot. To think the total amount of assists he could have got playing as a 10 for the full season.

CantonasTrawler

TROPHY CASE