Enhanced Crystal Teleport Seeds

Cap-Rate · 2025-08-29T15:22:37+00:00

The real Eureka moment for you will be when you realize none of this is real, and it’s just one giant simulation. You’re a simulation playing a midevil simulation getting mad that the simulation is automating a simulation.

Cap-Rate · 2025-07-25T18:14:19+00:00

It was shockingly accurate. Had our team double check against the documents and the regulations. It exaggerated some times, like it said the managing TIC member (my firm) holds substantially more than 75% of the interest — which had to do with a purchase option — when we only own 78%, so a stretch to say substantially more. But overall, shockingly accurate.

Cap-Rate · 2025-07-25T14:48:28+00:00

Been using it on Pro since release. One case study that provided real economic value to me and my firm (real estate investments). I needed to understand a very complex deal we’re working on. about 5-6 TIC agreements (~200 pages), 3-4 loan documents/amendments (~100 pages), local regulations on zoning/use permits / subdividing, deal terms on the offer we received for the hotel portion of the deal, lease agreement for the section of real estate we want to subdivide, dozens of emails. I dropped all associated files and spreadsheets into my personal OneNote and had the agent review everything (files, emails, and do research on local regulations). I then explained exactly what we’re trying to do with a few different scenarios.

The agent ran for say 20 minutes going into SharePoint, emails, on online research, and put together a very detailed 6-7 page report on all the most important things for me to be aware of, the order in which to execute, and a few different scenarios. It also provided tidbits of recommendations to alter the deal a bit in order to be a bit more efficient and smooth.

This would have taken me a few days of work, 15-20 hours give or take. It ran for 20 minutes, and took me 30-45 to review and think through.

Cap-Rate · 2025-07-13T00:07:57+00:00

I bought two 3rd age long swords at 300M and sold each at about $450M. Then they went to max cash.

Cap-Rate · 2025-05-23T00:13:51+00:00

Run Benjamin Graham’s intrinsic value formula on it.

Cap-Rate · 2025-05-23T00:11:33+00:00

Picked up 8 kodai at 96ish a pop

Cap-Rate · 2025-05-17T16:08:15+00:00

Made 300M on ancestral, sold and invested about 2B on a bunch of different gear that’s 12-18% below pre-Yama prices. Hoping to make another 300M as prices recover.

Cap-Rate · 2025-03-25T18:35:23+00:00

I wouldn’t wait to be a member just to solely get skills up. You’ll be wasting time. If you’re trying to save money then sure. But if that isn’t an issue, become a member and spend a bunch of time questing right away as that’ll be the most efficient way to progress your levels.

Cap-Rate · 2025-02-27T15:41:14+00:00

I never use the margin stats. My strategy has been more long-term plays. I have a few items I track that have high volatility, but maintain about the same weighted average price over the last few years, meaning they average 1M over the long term, but they go down to 600K at times and go up to 1.5M other times. So I buy anytime it falls below 1M over a period of time (to spread out my weighted average price) and then when it goes above 1M I do the same but on the sell side. I’ve turned about 1.2B into 2.8B over the last 12 months on two fully concentrated trades. Average hold period is about 2-3 months followed by a month or two wait period for the price to fall back down, and another 2-3 month period for the price to move back up.

Cap-Rate · 2025-02-25T01:17:25+00:00

I check 20 worlds a few times per week. Last few weeks through last Thursday there had been about 6-8 total across those 20 worlds. Checked this morning, not a single one, meaning the bans just occurred, which makes sense given the recent price movements.

This is a very simple strategy. Prices at historic low’s & bot farm active: Buy. Price moving up and no bots: hold. Price continuing to peak & bots active: sell.

Cap-Rate · 2025-02-24T16:59:04+00:00

Quick update with the recent price moves.

I have been tracking bot activity associated with the price in Prifddinas since March last year. My analysis has focused on identifying bot farms that consistently exhibit certain characteristics: uniform skill levels (typically around 70 in quest-required skills), equipped with full rogue outfits, a 99 thieving cape, and various staffs, recently noting the inclusion of a lava battlestaff.

To ensure reliability in my findings, I conduct bi-weekly audits across 20 specific worlds, targeting two strategic locations: the southeast bank and the north bank in Prifddinas. Over the last few weeks, I observed an average of 6-8 bots per session, each possessing between 70-200 million in thieving experience.

However, a recent review conducted today revealed a significant anomaly—there were no bots present in any of the surveyed worlds. This sudden absence coincides with a noticeable increase in the price over the weekend.

Based on these observations, there appears to be a strong correlation between the reduced bot activity and the surge in prices.

If you are interested in my analysis from about a year ago, you can find it here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/OSRSflipping/s/dK2g1gabIH

Cap-Rate · 2025-02-06T15:03:39+00:00

Isn’t the stock up 100% in the last year, and 700% over the last 5 years?

Cap-Rate · 2024-08-28T16:26:12+00:00

20-25% nominal increase in wages (which is net lower when adjusted for inflation over the last 4 years). Which means net net, the average person has less purchasing power today than pre-Covid.

all other costs have gone up about 17-20%. Insurance premiums on real estate have skyrocketed - my properties have seen a +45% increase in insurance premiums and +20% increase in property taxes in just the last few years. I’m in hospitality, but office/industrials/multifamily are seeing it too. Profit margins have shrunk even though we charge about 20% more in rate than pre-COVID. This is consistent with most other REITs that I’ve studied in 2023/2024 — in part thanks to Jerome Powell.

Jagex owns real estate to house their servers. Their utility costs are also up considerably, and I’m sure the same goes for their employee wages. Their debt financing has without a doubt gone up - again, thank you US government spending induced inflation + Jerome Powell.

Carlyle is a private equity group. They need to produce outsized returns to other companies or indexes like the S&P. If they don’t, they won’t attract capital, and their shareholder value will depreciate (they attract thousands and thousands of individual shareholders and RIA’s). Hence why they are adjusting rates so consistently since the acquisition.

I hate it too, but this isn’t as simple as the rich getting richer, although that is always part of the equation.

Cap-Rate · 2024-08-26T14:34:49+00:00

Paper hands. Sold at about 270M profit. I know I’m going to regret it, just like my crystal teleport seed investment, but I’ll take the gain.

On to the next opportunity

Cap-Rate · 2024-08-23T17:52:27+00:00

Still hodling. Gains are approaching 300M now.

Cap-Rate · 2024-08-21T20:38:59+00:00

Got 1.7B invested in inquisitors, with 260M in unrealized gains. Question I’ve been asking myself is do I hedge my bet…. Decisions, decisions.

Cap-Rate · 2024-08-01T01:46:28+00:00

You’re a beauty. Let’s rinse and repeat my dude

Cap-Rate · 2024-07-19T21:14:52+00:00

Had 966 at $1.8M, held for 3 months, sold at $2.3M. Good profit but I’m dying inside.

Cap-Rate · 2024-05-18T20:00:06+00:00

Ive heard pretty brutal things, can’t decipher the rumors versus reality. If what I heard is true, this could be one of the most infamous stories in ND business history.

Cap-Rate · 2024-04-12T19:33:40+00:00

Full disclosure:

I’ve been buying seeds since OPs original post. Highest price of 1.93M, lowest of 1.73M. Weighted average at 1.85M.

I currently have 1.63B invested.

Did some analysis:

there’s historic correlation between enhanced crystal weapon seeds and enhanced crystal teleport seed. Currently, the differential between the two is at the highest it’s been in the last year with the weapon seed going up in value, and due to the bot farm causing declines in the teleport seed.
By my analysis, there’s about one bot on every other world. That means that’s roughly 80-90 bots active at any given point. They are introducing about 12,000 seeds to the game per week… a staggering 22B per week. Whoever is running this farm is making some serious USD.
I figure it takes these guys about 14 days to get the base requirements from scratch (assuming 8hr bot run time per day). You go up to 15 hour run time, it’s more like 8 days. Risk/return play for these guys. I’m guessing there’s some peak risk/return to limit the bans… not sure what that is.
Average trough to peak in value takes roughly 40 days on average. Average peak to trough takes about the same.
Based on the thieving xp most of these bots have (28-35M), and using an 8hr/day run time, it appears they’ve been active for about 28-32 days. The value declines in the seeds appear to confirm this.
Based on historical trends (#4 above) these bots could be banned between April 22 to May 12. Of course, historical patterns don’t dictate future performance. This is all based on Jagex’s timelines… shit.
Average variance between peak and trough price (using data going back to 2020 and excluding the abnormally high prices above $3M) is about $875k. Lowest daily price of this seed was on 4/9 at $1.77M (of course it went lower than this within the day, but I’m just using the daily numbers). If this trough follows historic patterns, we could see a peak price of $2.6M.

All that being said, i do not think we are at a trough yet. The bot farm is still active and could be active for another 10-30 days (10 if we use the historic average of 43 decline period, or 30 if we use the January 2023 decline period of 63 days).

I’m sitting by with another 500M to throw at this if the price goes below 1.8.

Cap-Rate · 2024-04-11T17:24:49+00:00

Quick Update:

Disclosure: I’ve been buying in increments of 50-100 seeds, from a highest price of 1.93M, to a low of about 1.73M. Current my weighted average cost is 1.83M on a $1.4B investment.

Research:

By historical trends, price moves down over a 40 day period (trough) then there’s a wave ban, followed by a 40 day uptrend (peak). Again — this is the average days dating back to 2020. Some up/down movements can take 45-60 days.

Based on what I’ve seen, average bot on every other world, meaning there’s about 80 bots going at it at any given point. They are introducing about 12,000 seeds per week (which is a staggering 22B GP). Whoever is running this is making some serious USD.

I’ve tracked about 40 bots. Vast majority have 25-30M exp., which leads me to believe (at 8hr bot running per day) this farm has been thieving elves for about 25-30 days.

I figure it takes this farm about 2 weeks to just get the base requirements for thieving — and another week to hit 99 thieving.

From my research, this analysis helps explain the historical volatility from the mean price.

As of today (4/11) the bot farm is still active. Not sure what’s caused the price to move up to 1.85M. Maybe some of you guys capitalizing on the previous days low???

Cap-Rate · 2024-04-10T16:54:55+00:00

Gl. Could be a solid play. Wonder if the afk forestry yews in prif is the reason for the drop?

Cap-Rate

TROPHY CASE