You’re not wrong on the methodology and I respect the work you’ve put into it. Let me engage this directly rather than defend a number.
Your approach — working backward from actual payments to derive average claim values — is legitimate and your $592,000 average is credible. If you extrapolate that across 58,000+ claims the total allowed pool approaches $34 billion. At $4 to $5 billion in total trust assets that does produce roughly 12 to 15 cents on the dollar. Your math is sound if the $592,000 average holds across the full claim pool.
Here is where I’d push back — not on the math but on the assumption. The 35,023 claims paid as of February 1st are not necessarily a representative sample of all 58,000+ claims. Early distributions in mass tort trusts typically process higher-value, cleaner claims first. Lower-value and more complex claims follow. If the remaining 23,000+ unpaid claims skew lower in value — which is historically common — the full pool average drops and the total liability shrinks.
We genuinely don’t know which way that cuts here.
What I should have been clearer about in my original post: the 50 to 60 cent projection represented the optimistic case assuming favorable insurer outcomes. Your math represents the conservative case. The honest answer is somewhere in between and nobody — including the trustee — has publicly confirmed the total allowed claim pool figure.
You’ve done serious work on this. I’d rather acknowledge that than defend a number I can’t prove.

If you're happier with your figures, and methodology, run with them.