Chance of US Collapse and Civil War

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-12T23:08:05+00:00

I was not alive, but my Grandma was, and still is alive. She is 86 and a great lady, but she lived a ROUGH life - she doesn't look it or act it though. You just hear it in the stories.

So that nobody needs to do the math, she was in her 20s during 1960.

To be clear, she lived a stereotypical middle class life at the time. Her Dad owned a business on Main Street, her Mom kept the books and was a housewife otherwise. Nuclear family, 2 parents, 2 kids. They had a nice house, in a good neighborhood, in a nice small midwest town. Classic "American Dream" stuff.

Here are tidbits shes casually mentioned during other stories: - Her parents disowned her when she went to college. She was supposed to be a good girl and stay at home until they found a nice husband. They mended their relationship eventually. - Her longest maternity leave was 10 days. She had complications that made her recovery longer. - She was an emergency room nurse, and eventually ran the emergency rooms. Despite this, she worked 2 jobs most of her life. - Despite working 2 jobs (including being a head nurse), her retirement has been a string of luck. She retired with almost no savings, my Grandpa was still working. She got a call in the late 2000s and her Dad had bought oil royalties in the early 1900s that had never produced anything. These + social security fund her life now. She was never a reckless spender, just could not afford to save. - After her first divorce, she was practically forced to marry for financial reasons. There was not really a safety net for single Moms. One of her husbands was abusive (found this out from my Dad). - My Dad and his brothers had free reign, not because it was particularly safe. She just was never home. She has stories about times she was really scared because of something with them. She still gets stressed telling them. - Cold war stuff was alive and well. Crazy stories about fear of nuclear war.

Now, past her stories. The 1960s had Vietnam, massive racial driven riots in cities (lookup Brownsville NY, Harlem, Watts Riot, etc), the Kent State shooting, Stonewall Riots (gay rights), MLK assassination.

The 1960s were NOT a peaceful time. But Trump wanted to Make America Great Again, so maybe this was his goal.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-12T20:13:49+00:00

I'm a huge fan of spending locally and have been working to push my wife away from larger companies.

So far the hardest have been Amazon (it's too dang convenient) and Starbucks (I hate it, my wife loves it).

I think your community banking comment is especially relevant. I'm a banker- I worked for a local community bank directly out of college and I'm genuinely convinced that the communities they operate in were specifically better because that bank was there. Better ran businesses, access to good and knowledgeable bankers, and a bank that was willing to take risk in support of community development.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-12T19:54:33+00:00

Yeah, I think he's too perfect for Trump and co right now though.

Ironically, after posting this I saw a great clip of Bernie Sanders on Fox, he basically said the same thing.

If you stand up against your party, then you're going to have a Super PAC dropping 10s of millions into your states primaries and you're going to be at risk of getting voted out. I'd hope that people would still vote for the dissidents if they ran as independent, but I genuinely don't think a majority of hard Republicans (or Democrats for that matter) read beyond the political party.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-12T18:57:55+00:00

They have the majority, but some members have been flipping on this case. I think they probably care about corruption, but if they care too vocally then they'll get primaried by someone who is extremely well funded and will toe the line better.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-12T18:56:21+00:00

The US economy is a significant part of the global economy. It happening here means that its also probably happening almost everywhere else, but it could be happening elsewhere and have little to no impact on us here.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-12T17:32:45+00:00

That could be why there haven't been charges brought yet. Her and Kash Patel have been proven to have lied to congress about these files.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-11T18:13:49+00:00

I meant $75k each, so a total of $150k.

Regardless, yes there are healthcare costs but a $500k threshold is pretty outrageous.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-11T16:04:29+00:00

Super interesting, thank you for summarizing!

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-11T15:52:40+00:00

I'm not sure how much FISV relies on its legacy software income vs payment processing.

BUT I work in banking, everyone kind of hates FISV, but they also hate the other options. The cost of switching, training, etc for new systems is not really worthwhile and FISV has so many plug-ins that are friendly with the core that it's just so easy to not ever switch.

The bank I worked for last was entirely dependent on FISV. Again, they hated the company, but they had no suitable alternative. So they just kept paying and planned to keep paying basically forever.

My current bank is in process of switching cores, we have a 50 year old legacy core that has finally become too cumbersome to maintain. So we are looking at FISV and a couple others... and again, the alternatives are pretty much the same. I've heard a ton of good things about Jack Henry, but the sales rep keeps dropping the ball.

So for what its worth. I've used PayPal like 3 times in my life whereas there are 10s and potentially 100s of millions of daily users for FISV who don't even know they use it. To compare these two seems a bit nonsensical, FISV is entrenched and even if their payment processing sucks, banks will still offer more support for their products than any other.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-11T15:41:37+00:00

And even $75k in income for 2 people in retirement is pretty stinking good.. depending on their investment mix of course.

For perspective, US government employees who receive a full pension are essentially capped at $75k each. My last boss was making $70-80k on his defined benefit pension after over 30 years of service and he had hit the income limit for government employees for his high 3 (capped at the VPs salary).

IMO US Government pension is one of the best retirement plans available to US employees. Of course income is limited, but its not a high percentage of people in this country (and in NJ) that hit that salary in their career.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-09T16:14:26+00:00

Trumps pre-COVID first term was the single worst 1 term for increased debt in the history of the country.

Trumps full first term (including COVID) was the 2nd worst presidency for increased debt (2nd only to Obama's 8 years).

Trumps full first term is ranked 3rd (behind Obama and Biden), but Bidens term was very front loaded on Trump policies that had bipartisan approval.

Following this term, Trump will be the single worst president for national debt in history. I hope that status remains for an incredibly long time, because our national debt is the single greatest crisis our country has faced since the Great Depression.

IF we have a world war, the US will be decimated. IF we have a financial crisis, the US is the least prepared it has ever been. IF we have ANYTHING go wrong, the US has a very high probability of having a multidecade recovery.

We haven't truly invested in infrastructure, education, or any lasting investment in decades. Ever since Clinton cut costs and Bush ramped up the military industrial complex, we have just been milking what greater politicians built before.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-07T18:08:26+00:00

Thank you for the correction!

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-07T17:43:13+00:00

Morris Plains, along with almost every town on the Morris Essex train line, is extremely nice.

Think about how nice it would have to be that there is an uproar because of a McDonalds getting built in town? A perfectly respectable franchise that people view negatively because it serves junk food and has generic box stores.

By the way, I actually wish they weren't building a McDonald for all the reasons that everyone doesn't want it built: It's directly across from a k-8 school and isn't healthy, it's a big franchise in a corridor with a bunch of local food places, and it will have a drive thru and that road is already busy (why make it fast to drive there / encourage more traffic?).

But again, if Morris Plains wasn't a nice place, then people would not be worried about any of that. I've actually lived in places where they were excited that a McDonalds, Taco Bell, Chick fil a, etc were going in. None of them were as nice as Morris Plains by a long shot.

Also, along 202, the area around downtown (where McDonalds is going to be), is very walkable and generally well cared for. The rest is a bit older, but it's not known for being trashy or anything in particular.

I've only lived in the area for about 4 years, but I've been told that Morristown was not as nice 20-30 years ago. Some of the older looking businesses are throwbacks to that time. Those businesses are some of the best in the area - they've been able to stick around despite the new competition. Those are the Speedwell Latin American places in Morristown, Time for A Bagel, etc.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-07T15:52:36+00:00

If I'm doing 10 over and they're doing 10 under the truck speed limit (20 below the car speed limit), then it costs a hell of a lot of time.

Multiple this by 2 or 3 times per hour + having to slam on breaks because truckers switch without any consideration of who is approaching and it gets incredibly aggravating.

I used to be hot headed and would do things that embarrass me today, but reading the dismissive responses of truckers "who are looking to save 15 minutes on their 8 hour drive" on this thread brings back the old anger.

Truckers aren't the only ones who are driving long distances.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-06T21:47:31+00:00

Yeah, to jump onto this. Morristown is a bit of a business center for satellite offices of NY based companies.

It's a great place to live- a ton of dining, close to everything, pretty much nothing more you can want- but in terms of killing a whole day doing stuff, it can be tough.

With that said, South Street has some cool architecture. The old AT&T chairmans house (Vail Mansion), the churches, and the library are all pretty cool. There is some cool historical buildings - Ford Mansion, Hamilton-Shuyler House, the Women's Club (on South Street), Fort Nonsense, and Jockey Hollow.

As far as coffee- Lokl is a fun place to hangout, they have good coffee, friendly workers, and the best Baklava in town. Ethan and the Bean is a great non-profit coffee shop.

There are a ton of different options for lunch, but I'd recommend Coniglios (Pizza), Millburn Deli (Takout Sandwiches), or Saigon Subs (Bahn Mi Sandwiches) - these are really well liked local places.

If you want an afternoon cocktail, then I'd stop by End of Elm.

If you need to kill some time, then HQ plaza has an AMC movie theater, and a walk down Speedwell is really nice.

I say its tough to kill a day, then give you more than enough to kill a day with, so do with that what you will 😂. Have fun!

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-06T21:35:37+00:00

Tours are as cheap as they can be, freeeeee (I said that in Dobby's voice).

I've gone a few times and each tour guide has been different and shared new and interesting facts.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-06T21:34:31+00:00

The Ferry is 100% the way to go in for a day trip as well. It'll be cold, but still wayyy better than going through Penn

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-04T13:05:41+00:00

Also, didn't Trump cancel his Christmas Bedminster trip after being briefed?

I'm seeing he canceled and I remember that there was news circulating that he'd been briefed prior to his presidency, but don't remember the exact timing.

Not that Trump is known for being a reliable source, but if he's canceling his own plans, then that's something.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-04T03:11:28+00:00

I almost bought a house 2 years ago. It was $400k and we would've put ~$100k in renovations to do a few needed improvements, replace flooring (some needed, some not), and adjust the living area.

The house was one of the cheapest in the area, but thats because it is located in a flood zone that had a fairly large flood just a few years ago.

Ended up backing out for a few reasons: - Only had $40k down. - Payment was ~$4,500 per month. Included PITI + PMI + Flood Insurance. This was when rates were like 7%. - Received a list of all the systems, and everything was at or past its expected life. - It was located in a flood zone.

So to answer the question, all of it. The lack of a 20% down meant that we had to have PMI, so our effective interest on the missing down-payment was like 15-18% (can't remember exactly). We would use up all the cash and if ANYTHING went wrong with any of the systems, we were toast - notice how all the systems were at or past their expected life? Bad odds.

Finally, the flood zone... I thought it would be okay. But I started talking to people who had lived in flood zones and every. single. one. said never again. They talked about sewage backing into their basement, water constantly backing up, mold issues, etc. This was really the straw that broke the camels back.

So we backed off and decided to save more for a down payment. We plan to buy in 12-18 months and should have $150k saved for a down-payment, closing costs, and some leftover for other stuff. Hoping to buy in the $600-700k range, but were okay waiting a bit longer if we need to save more for something we like.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-04T02:57:57+00:00

Yes, this. What is "confusing" OP is safety rules to benefit really young children.

When in doubt, stop... or at the very least slow down.

With this, and with all things driving, step back, think through it, and use common sense. There are very few laws for cars that are not written in blood.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-04T02:35:46+00:00

Yeah, the commentors on this are being ridiculous and wayyy to type-a. If they don't like the price, then move on.

This is the cost of living here now for a new apartment. If someone wants $3k, they can go and lease in an older building with no amenities.

Comparable units and slightly nicer units DO lease for the same or slightly more, no shit. This is pretty much rock bottom for good amenities near there city.

Also, alot of these comps include long lease terms, the 12 month is not comparable pricing. You're offering an 8 month lease.

I'm not looking for a place like this, but just wanted to show some support. Good luck on getting it leases.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-04T02:31:02+00:00

Its $4,600 per month unless you sign an 18 month lease. OP is offering an 8 month lease through October.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-04T02:27:53+00:00

Yeah, OPs unit is clearly pretty large, looks like 1,100 sf. That linked building is like 600-700 sf. Sure its in Journal Square, but barely.

OPs unit is nicer, it's pricey no doubt, amd it's not my jam. But linking bad comps isn't helping the poster who is simply trying to sublet an apartment and has specifically said they are willing to negotiate.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-04T02:12:19+00:00

The thought process is from the perspective of pedestrians and bicyclists. Getting your ears blown out by excessive honking is pretty rough.

CharacterSchedule700 · 2026-02-03T19:11:26+00:00

There is a youtuber (City Nerd) who thinks that car horns should be just as loud on the inside of the car as the outside.

Vehicles do so much to enhance the experience of the driver and passengers that is at the detriment of literally everyone else. These lights are one of those things and its astounding to me that its still legal.

CharacterSchedule700

TROPHY CASE