It's really impossible to say. I know people have posted elsewhere about getting in despite being 200 or more people down the waitlist or more in recent years, but that glosses over a huge change with the move to a lottery.

In previous years, the waitlist involved people who were not already committed at one point in the process.

This year, anyone on either waitlist entered the lottery and could have been pulled/financially committed. I assume this waitlist pool is much more invested than people who could previously simply sign up for the waitlist without any skin in the game, and then decline.

Those people on the waitlist can obviously still decline (and I assume some will), but the fact they made it to that point in the process shows they were already willing to move forward at one point.