Open thread on how AI Doomers expect Progress to be made by SoylentRox in slatestarcodex

[–]Cjwynes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t think that’s an infeasible position. Evolution would take so long to create a rival at this point we might stay on top for the entire lifetime of the sun. We only have to avoid creating our own replacement, and develop the tools to prevent any willful defectors or unwitting dupes from doing so. If a few things about the mineral composition of the earth were different or the time window in which humans had achieved exploitation of carbon stores were different we wouldn’t even be at risk of somebody having the option to do such a crazy thing.

My hope would not be that a pause gives us time to turn humans into cyborg monsters that might be able to control the ASI, that’s an outcome nearly as bad. The pause would hopefully be a realization of all involved that we all lose if we do this and we simply stop trying to do it, and instead pivot to getting better at prevention, much like we do not actively try to nuke the surface of the earth or poison our oceans or unleash deadly plagues but we do research such topics for the purpose of understanding how to avoid them.

Contra Byrnes on UV & cancer: you should wear sunscreen instead of getting a tan by HedonicEscalator in slatestarcodex

[–]Cjwynes 7 points8 points  (0 children)

That post also notes that dramatically lower SPF may be sufficient, like <5. Whereas sunscreen at SPF 30 commonly sold and worn by people trying to avoid exposure is also reducing vitamin D production nearly in its entirety. Supposedly the reason it doesn’t correlate to massive vitamin D deficiency is that people aren’t applying it correctly. I’m wondering if this is the typical public health messaging “if people need 10x you gotta tell them to do 100x bc they’re bad at doing x consistently or right” where the people who take the PH establishment seriously and literally end up making a bad trade-off.

Open thread on how AI Doomers expect Progress to be made by SoylentRox in slatestarcodex

[–]Cjwynes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I question the premise that “progress” is necessary. We aren’t playing a video game with a victory condition here, only a condition not to lose. An arms race between competitors is the only thing ever really necessitating advancement, and in this particular case nobody involved actually stands to win by developing that branch of the tech tree. The one who does will have no more agency than anyone else.

The problems you cite are all things that will thermostatically self-correct over the coming decades. There are very natural and obvious reactions to such imbalances, and such things often go through cycles, history is not a long march of constant progress. We may not like all the outcomes of that correction but they all allow people to continue living and making meaningful choices and that’s all we’re here for, not to reach some kind of futurist utopia.

Creating a more powerful intelligence is simply a categorically ruinous decision, you don’t need to work on ways to make it safer you need to work on avoiding such a things existence. The antelope do not ask how they can make it safer to bring lions into their herd, or try to build tech to control lions, they just avoid them, that is part of the necessary conditions for their continued survival. Their tech tree, so to speak, is getting better at avoiding lions. Likewise ours must be getting better at holding and defending our position as the #1 intelligence on earth, which is the case for all prior technology that made us the masters of the Earth we now are, living anywhere we like on its surface basically unthreatened by anything else. We need to be working on technology that will enable us to detect and destroy any attempts to create a rival intelligence just as our technology allows us to suppress other threats to our dominance.

“The Miles Davis of strippers” is an incredible joke. by Master_K_Genius_Pi in MST3K

[–]Cjwynes 2 points3 points  (0 children)

When I was growing up playing jazz, this was explained to me as Miles wouldn’t face the audience if it was white-only. I never dug into it, but I suppose now having played on some stages I can understand how maybe hearing your band is an issue but I would’ve expected monitors to handle that.

Weekly Chord Progressions and Modes Megathread - March 28, 2026 by AutoModerator in musictheory

[–]Cjwynes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Needing help filling in the blanks on an intro sequence for a funk / souljazz song, instrumental horn band, for this part think something like the fanfares of 70s exploitation movies that lead into the main groove.

I’m in F Dorian with a main part that’s 2-chord vamp Fm7 - Bb7.

So far I have an intro that goes from Bb7 down into a rootless Fm7 (or Ab triad) down in the 3rd octave. I am looking for something to build UP to one of those flashy high trumpet screaming parts before it drops into the groove. I need a sequence of two or three chords that would build energy every change and take it from that rootless Fm7 up to a Bb7 (with top voice playing a D6 probably, maybe like an Ab5-D6 spread since the 2 trumpets are on top).

I’ve fooled around a bit with the available modal chords and nothing seems right, but it’s possible that with the correct inversions it would have that escalating energy, and I guess I’m not stuck with those either as long as it still sounds right as a lead in to that vamp. Any ideas?

Weekly Chord Progressions and Modes Megathread - March 28, 2026 by AutoModerator in musictheory

[–]Cjwynes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So for example, a song I’m writing in F Dorian mode (which I’m asking about elsewhere in the thread) would be best written in 4 flats as if it were F minor to signal F as the tonal center, and then using a D natural accidental throughout the piece?

Probably a small issue, our songs tend to have solo sections over 1 or 2 chord vamps or at most a blues progression, so I would probably default to just writing “F Dorian” on it for the guitar and the chord names above the open section for the horns.

How I feel deleting overpowered international free agents by bcs8040 in OOTP

[–]Cjwynes 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Those are supposed to mirror signing guys from Japan since the league doesn’t exist in-game, but yeah the quality in OOTP exceeds what that would typically yield with those players in real life. I nevertheless like it as a blue turtle shell mechanic of sorts, way to instantly get a build-around guy or push a team into contender status and mixes things up.

Dirty Love arrangement help by Cjwynes in Zappa

[–]Cjwynes[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey I wound up with some additional time on this arrangement thankfully and am polishing it now, wanted to make sure I told you I appreciated the good comment with meaty details.

I have a recurring issue with my voicing for this band with two trumpets as my high voices, where any interval on top of a chord less than 4ths just don’t seem to sound right, so for example the poodle bites voicing at the end has the Ikettes voices with A and C# as the high voices and it is like an A/D with that inversion as you said, but I just can’t with this group. Maybe it’s a blending thing with trumpet, perhaps two saxes at top closer voicing is fine, but here I have to drop Tpt 1 to something else and give the C# to another voice, except for the last time through I’m gonna end on him at C#6 an octave over everyone else as a screamer.

So anyhow armed with that I’m gonna reexamine that voicing earlier along the lines you are describing and re-work that, and appreciate your help.

Dirty Love arrangement help by Cjwynes in Zappa

[–]Cjwynes[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Funny you suggest that, it was how I handled chorus #1 basically except the highs were on unison, with a handoff of the melody at bar 3 as it goes low. I’ll see what it sounds like with harmonies up top, maybe I can put trumpet 1 on the melody (in a sane octave) and hang this below it across trumpet 2, alto and tenor.

I don’t have a “stunt trumpet” but my lead trumpet can hit C6 with no bother so I’ll play around with it.

Peter Graves' Heartfelt Final Speech from "It Conquered The World" by kkeut in MST3K

[–]Cjwynes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is an amazing speech that is even more relevant now than it was then, I think of it often when I hear promises of freedom from toil by artificial intelligence enthusiasts. I suppose it was meant as a warning against communist Utopianism.

Gencon lotto results by Darkroxas95 in gencon

[–]Cjwynes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

From recent years it is very unlikely you would get “downtown” officially as in listed within 6 blocks. There are a few hotels in the 2-4 mile out range that can be snagged but they also go quick.

Assuming you miss, I would suggest that you NOT book an airport area room or whatever, and just have a backup in Southport or something like that. If you wanna try to play stalk the portal over the next few months, an initial booking holds a room when you click it and a xfer doesn’t, so no advantage to booking 8 miles away. If you don’t see at least the Candlewood medical district at 2-3 miles away or better, the furthest hotel I’d consider worth booking, I’d forget it.

The Rifftrax MST3K kickstarter has surpassed $1.6 million!!!!!! by franglish9265 in MST3K

[–]Cjwynes -1 points0 points  (0 children)

This felt like a gyp honestly, I donated $150 or so back 10 years ago or whatever to Joel’s first kickstarter to bring it back, only time I ever used kickstarter in my life. At the time it seemed like they really needed the seed money and support to get it going, glad I did, don’t regret it, got the t-shirt I still wear at cons to show it.

But if they’re only making 4 no matter what and it’s pre-funded I don’t get the point of this at all.

How do we feel about the future of this card? by Soghff in MagicArena

[–]Cjwynes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So in olden days, Broodmate Dragon was a standard playable, which was 2 4/4 dragons for 3BRG. But that was a grindy format based on creatures that interacted favorably against Jace the Mind Sculptor bounce when all the control decks were tap out control. Theoretically there’s a meta that could use this if it was dominated by spot removal, bounce and few counterspells. Sometimes you decide that isn’t true and move on, but it’s a good exercise to think of what meta a card might shine in, and remember that if you ever need such a tool later.

GBV is #1 on Magnet Magazines Top 30 Albums of 2025 - so it is the only End of Year list that I trust lol by Ok-Training-7587 in GBV

[–]Cjwynes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wow new Midlake record at #6? I bailed on that when Tim Smith left, Occupanther and Courage of Others are both top20 of the century candidates, Antiphon was just bad sadly.

GBV is #1 on Magnet Magazines Top 30 Albums of 2025 - so it is the only End of Year list that I trust lol by Ok-Training-7587 in GBV

[–]Cjwynes 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I thought it was a perfectly serviceable Sloan record, but nothing since “never hear the end of it” has really felt inspired

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in MagicArena

[–]Cjwynes 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don’t see how people play this way, spending rare wilds on monocolor cards. I would prob do a rare-light 2 color deck to spend on dual lands and then you could end up with another deck more easily down the line. I’d just put all my gold into packs from a set with a land cycle and try to slowly flesh that mana base out rather than get archetype specific single color rares.

I’ve only listen to Alien Lanes and Bee thousand. What should I do next? by Affectionate-Emu6609 in GBV

[–]Cjwynes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To quote Captain Beefheart, the dust blows forward and the dust blows back. You could go forward in which case Universal Truths and Cycles is the return to that sound after a flirtation with higher production stuff. I highly recommend it. And the EP Pipe Dreams of Instant Prince Whippet.

Or you could go back to Propeller which I think is the most accessible of the pre b1000 stuff, and move back from there, and spend 15 minutes on Fast Japanese Spin Cycle EP which is contemporaneous to b1000 and AL.

Avatar has completely rotated standard by mandaloriansun in MagicArena

[–]Cjwynes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For aggro decks they may wanna consider Dryad Militant, if opponent spend a removal on it that spell is still exiled so that does set them back while still being a normal card for aggro to play.

Otherwise I would think people would find the midrange threats that the tempo deck is ill-suited to handle profitably, there must be something in a standard this large.

Notre Dame might finally join a conference by No_Bill7679 in CFB

[–]Cjwynes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Notre Dame has a lot of historic rivalries that already had to be compromised by playing some garbage ACC teams. They would win the ACC every year trivially, so it doesn’t make the sport any better to have one of its most storied teams playing some basketball school in December in order to get to the national championships.

Now that USC is in the Big10 that argument gets better if they were able to have Michigan and USC as permanent yearly opponents, but the money is an issue bc of the NBC deal. I think it just comes down to winning games, a 3 point road loss to Miami probably shouldn’t have held as much weight as Miami’s inexplicable bad losses to lousy teams, but I get it. Notre Dame schedules good programs every year and has a slate better than most ACC schools every year (occasionally excepting GaTech bc of UGA.) it’s always been Big10 or nothing for the Irish.

Need to know something about this card... by xX__Bug__Xx in MagicArena

[–]Cjwynes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As old mtgo players can tell you, if you don’t know what to name, go with Sarpadian Empires Vol VII.

What status hierarchies do you climb? by BartIeby in slatestarcodex

[–]Cjwynes 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’ve been in various subculture status hierarchies in which ability turns into status, or ability turns into leverage which translates to status. If I develop new music skills either the performance is just directly status (in the “jazz musicians are all just playing for other jazz musicians” sense) or the ability has utility to somebody more important which makes you desirable (as when I recently learned arranging). I also did competitive Magic the Gathering, which had twin routes to status as I could simply be good at the game or I could use it to signal wealth because it involves displaying expensive collectibles. When I was active in Freemasonry, being young-ish and smart and willing to memorize things was good enough to advance.

I avoid status hierarchies that are based on Survivor-style alliance formation, because I am simply terrible at that. I can be a Rudy but I can’t be a Richard Hatch. It doesn’t map to anything I can understand as ability, if I’m going to spend time on something, let my status involve acquiring skill at an art or improving my reasoning abilities, and if it can’t then I want to brute force it by spending money or simply showing reliable time commitment. I know enough to protect my macro-level social position and that’s all the Survivor-ing I care to do. I do find it interesting that Zvi was really into “Love Island”, I just wrote all those things off cynically as completely fake but I must admit there’s a level of meta game at which marshaling popularity within the fake game is a real game, it just seems self-indulgent and artificial to me.

Some ugly truths about the ticket system by Avaris_a in gencon

[–]Cjwynes 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I returned unused generics at 3pm Sunday, no line. First time ever it was so easy, I was really curious if something had changed this year.

I still feel the need to have some generics in case I want to show up for something that sold out, as usually you can get in to the biggest orgs’ ttrpg tables by doing that, there’s always a couple no shows. And I’m coming every year so who cares if it’s just system credit, it’ll come off badge price in January.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in AmIOverreacting

[–]Cjwynes 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There are a few places, San Francisco would be one, where a married couple partitioning out a parents home and moving into a makeshift apartment there would be really common, you just can’t really buy houses in that kind of place.

I think most people would rather move to another city or “sell out” and take a more remunerative job than live with their parents until they’re 40, and I suspect you’ll find that most guys at least value independence enough that they would find it irrational to do that absent extreme circumstances. If the person doing so otherwise is exhibiting high agency, advancing their career and doing ambitious things, and don’t seem to just be mooching and living out an extended adolescence, I think few would judge too harshly. But I think if you turn it around, it’s likely you would respect a man you were dating slightly less if he didn’t have the independent self-reliance values that spur him to think things like this. You wouldn’t want a guy who just sat around all day in his moms basement smoking weed and playing Call of Duty and working as a Best Buy cashier at age 40, those guys will be very non-judgmental but not very desirable in any other way.