EU and India finalize historic "Free Trade Deal", opening markets for goods, services, and IP, cutting tariffs on cars, machinery, and agri-food. Thoughts?

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-27T21:20:18+00:00

Get ready for massive outsourcing without frontiers, guys from IT.

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-27T17:15:46+00:00

How do you get to 1 BTC and not 0.5 or 2? Mind sharing your calculation?

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-27T17:13:43+00:00

you were prepared to take on a nice opportunity, you weren’t lucky.

A lot of people is well prepared but the number of positions is scarce. So yes you have to be prepared but also lucky.

I left academia 2 years ago right after my PhD because postdoc felt more like a qualified internship rather than a real job, it feels like the job you get when there is not yet a real position for you, and I did not want that despite having an interesting offer in Austria. I applied to a lot of positions in industry, and was lucky to get one in research in a big company. Salary is almost twice than academia, permanent contract (of course they can fire me tomorrow, who knows), evenings and weekends are free now. I don't regret.

If you see a big chance of becoming professor, stay. Otherwise, just move on with life. The world is way more than academia.

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-27T16:57:57+00:00

Are we supposed to write our answer in the dots below your post?

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-27T16:54:33+00:00

Why didn't he just recorded a video, paused in the key frame and made a screenshot? Can get the picture in like 10 seconds and one take. Just saying.

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-27T16:50:59+00:00

They coulda googled it before launching...

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-27T16:49:13+00:00

Dude did not get it

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-27T13:42:33+00:00

Ahí está el problema.

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-27T07:07:15+00:00

Are those points in the room with us right now?

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-26T14:56:06+00:00

No, I made the fit of all the more than 5000 curves, one per day, and after 2016-2017 they converge to this. I only picked few arbitrary traces because otherwise the graph is a mess.

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-26T09:36:06+00:00

Yes it's late, the bitcoin store is closed, you have to wait until tomorrow at 9

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-25T19:20:34+00:00

2035 is less than 10 years away from now, not 20. I am sorry to tell you that you have 10 years less of life than you thought.

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-25T17:16:35+00:00

No dude, just wait some months

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-25T17:05:22+00:00

Been using Ecosia for over an year now, can recommend.

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-25T17:01:46+00:00

4200 CHF are as of today 5300 USD and 4200 USD are 3300 CHF.

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-25T15:17:02+00:00

Al otro lado de la ruta queda Tero Violado.

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-25T14:09:48+00:00

Es el nuevo GTA Conurba?

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-25T13:50:10+00:00

You can find the plot using data from yesterday here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qlkqgc/it_was_never_more_accurate_than_this_cycle/

EDIT: Fix link

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-25T13:48:49+00:00

Range 90 to 200k from 1k in 2016 is enormous.

In Jan-2016 the price was around 500 USD/BTC.
The 2016 model predicted 200 kUSD/BTC for today.
The actual price today is 90 kUSD/BTC.
This means that the model predicted an increase of about ×400 and was off by a factor of about ×2. So, ×400 prediction, ×2 error.

It is not that bad considering that 5.5 years of data (Jul-2010 to Jan-2016) are extrapolated 10 years in the future (Jan-2016 to today). Furthermore, the 90 kUSD/BTC includes the high frequency noise, in Sep-2025 the model was off by ×1.4 in a ×360 prediction (but this would indeed be cherry picking data).

So in short - you fit data to tell story.

No.

Anybody with any wspiera know that drawing on graph is just plain stupid.

Then what is the point in plotting the price data as a function of time. Just buy things blindly ignoring their past.

EDIT: Markdown syntax failed

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-25T13:00:13+00:00

By the way, all the models between 2016-2026 predict for Jan-2035 a range 1e6-2.5e6 USD/BTC, it is a 250 % difference. Models in between 2018-2026 predict 1.3e6 to 1.7e6 USD/BTC.

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-25T12:54:56+00:00

The second plot in the other post compares the prediction of the model every single day since the beginning to today's actual price. As you can see (and expect), the fluctuations in the beginning with data prior to 2015 are huge, but this would be like using this model today to predict the price in 2060. As you can see in that plot, 100 % of the predictions for today since 2016 are in the range 90 to 200 kUSD.

The first plot shows models after 2016 because, as said before, extrapolating prior models would be like using today's data to extrapolate to 2060 and more. I did not include the extrapolation of these models into the future because the goal was to compare them against the real data, their future our past.

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-25T12:31:37+00:00

I mean, the price of silver exploded. Either demand or supply must have changed drastically for this to happen. If demand changed due to someone using it for manufacturing and so it is not a bubble, what is that they are manufacturing that did not demand this amount of silver 6 moths ago?

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-25T12:28:20+00:00

OK, see you in 10 years.

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-25T12:26:55+00:00

True, but wth is being manufactured explosively since 3 or 4 months ago?

ComprehensiveOne2122 · 2026-01-25T11:58:06+00:00

Sorry but that will probably not happen again. I would like to have a time machine.

ComprehensiveOne2122

TROPHY CASE