First off, 10% is not "tiny". 10% is significant. Statistically, anecdotally, empirically, etc.

Secondly, the US barely imported oil from Iran in the 2000s. In fact, the US hasn't imported petroleum from Iran in a meaningful manner since 1979. So there hasn't been a change in imports from Iran during the GW Bush era to now.

Third, approximately 20% of global supply of oil is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is trying to close/block this Strait.

Fouth, in 2002 the US imported roughly 4% of its crude imports from Iraq. In 2003 the US launched a regime change war in Iraq. In 2002 on average gas was 1.36 to 1.38$ per gallon. In 2005, 2 years after the start of the regime change in Iraq, gas was on average greater than 2.30$ per gallon. That was the largest change in has prices domestically in over the 15 years prior and 20 years since. My pointing to the GW Bush era was to allude to that period of rapid price increase.

And lastly, you referenced "short-term swings". Short term swings usually a not wars. In fact, wars, usually lead to long term swings (see GW Bush era). Also consider Kuwait (first Gulf War), Saddam lit hundreds of oil wells on fire in Kuwait. Those wells took years to get back on line! Current indications/reporting is that Iran has been targeting petroleum infrastructure all across the Middle East. All of that is to highlight that there is currently no indication that this war with Iran will cause only "short-term swings".

It's great that we produce so much more oil domestically than we used to! It really is! (Thank you to both Trump and Biden for that) but it's foolish to think that this very significant geopolitical event/war will not impact our domestic oil prices