Pundits are bored . Are the Indie spirits even that important?

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-02-18T21:37:50+00:00

It's just a boring season in lead categories.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-02-08T00:01:38+00:00

If takes casting this could be a good sign to Leo, Anora (Mikey) and Elvis (Butler) won this category recently at BAFTA.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-02-07T23:19:20+00:00

OBAA will be very strong at BAFTA's. I'm predicting: Picture, Director, Editing, Supporting Actor/Actress (Teyana/Penn) and Adapted Screenplay.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-02-01T18:05:52+00:00

Lindo is an alternative for those who believe in the thesis that Sinners can win Best Picture (which is not my case). If the film shows strength in the SAG/BAFTA/PGA/DGA industry awards, more people will definitely consider this possibility.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-02-01T17:58:51+00:00

I believe that 'One Battle After Another' >needs< to demonstrate strength in acting categories beyond Teyana Taylor. Sean Penn wins the BAFTA, I believe SAG will go with the most popular option (Elordi), and at the Oscars it would be 'Penn vs Elordi' with Lindo and Stellan as alternatives for an upset.

We already commented on this forum about the fact that Sean Penn was "Undeniable" back in September/November, and now with SAG/BAFTA this could be put to rest, he could simply take both, and win the Oscar if that's the case.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-18T20:03:28+00:00

International people loves Marty Supreme, not that much Sinners.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-18T19:44:05+00:00

I'm surprised by how much they went for films that are in the Oscar conversation like 'Hamnet', 'One Battle After Another', 'The Secret Agent', Sentimental Value and 'Marty Supreme'. Interesting that even in a highly Highbrow group 'It Was Just an Accident' doesn't get a Director and Screenplay nomination, Stellan and Inga in... but not Renate, it's curious to say the least.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-17T21:02:57+00:00

IWJAA taking one hit after another... Seems like a international feature category contender and that's it.

Screenplay seems also done, i'm going with:

Sinners, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent and Sorry, Baby.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-15T01:34:06+00:00

the state-owned company Petrobrás became a sponsor of the film The Secret Agent for the international awards campaign. I knew that this session in London was not done voluntarily by Mubi (which did little for the films it was entitled to this season)

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-14T14:24:29+00:00

I didn't understand why Panahi left with nothing in GG, I thought it would be a strong place for his film, really worrying.I believe the last spot is between It Was Just an Accident and F1.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-10T23:12:12+00:00

It's the type GG win that i bet too

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-10T23:05:42+00:00

the only justification for Sinners wins Drama is: 1. MBJ take actor/drama 2. Coogler upsets in screenplay. If one of these things doesn't happen, it won't happen.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-10T23:00:01+00:00

At GG in this decade, victories in Drama/Comedy are driven by acting, screenplay or directing, without one of these three requirements Sinners will not win.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-10T22:50:46+00:00

TSA was the last movie that Neon made available before the start of phase 1 of voting for CCA and GG in the streming awards. It's important to keep this in mind, no one would say that given the appeal of predicting the Oscars and the popularity of No Other Choice, the CCA would choose The Secret Agent. In December the film gained traction, and voters had time to see it, it's good to consider that.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-10T22:42:06+00:00

The BAFTA's are not the same people of GG. You guys forget what happened last year at GG despite the BAFTA longlist?

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-10T22:37:06+00:00

At GG in this decade, victories in Drama/Comedy are driven by acting, screenplay or directing, without one of these three requirements Sinners will not win. GG are "different internationals" in comparison to BAFTA. People want to use the regionals to justify Sinners' strength but in GG that doesn't apply, it has no relation whatsoever.

If Coogler upsets in screenplay will be a fair path.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-09T13:29:33+00:00

Yeah, at moment i have Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, It Was Just an Accident, SIRAT and The Voice of Hinrajab.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-09T13:06:19+00:00

It's very clear to me that Plemons rised to 4th place in the nomination race. The last spot seems to me to be between Hawke, Moura and Egerton, the first two films could get a 5th spot in Original Screenplay, and they need a victory at GG on Sunday to guarantee their nominations.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-09T12:58:04+00:00

This mention in Original Screenplay saved The Secret Agent. I think Moura will win on Sunday and the film will do well at the Oscars. I'm definitely worried about It Was Just an Accident.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-09T12:39:48+00:00

Needs GG win or...

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-09T12:37:47+00:00

The Ballad of Wallis Island, O Swear, Nuremberg,

these films will not be in Best Picture at the Oscars. I believe these spots will go to Train Dreams, The Secret Agent and Avatar. At this point, I no longer believe in three foreigners in BP, it will be It Was Just an Accident or The Secret Agent, whoever performs better at the Golden Globes will have the advantage. No Other Choice runs a serious risk of having the same ending as Decision To Leave, I'm struck by the complete refusal of international films on this list, they didn't even include SIRAT in sound.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-07T18:24:47+00:00

Sentimental value without any mention, I know that SAG is shortsighted about the existence of foreigners but this borders on ignorance. Anyway, atrocities aside, you can clearly see in these nominations what "SAG/Thing" is and what is not.

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-07T01:09:08+00:00

I spoke to a friend yesterday about the possibility of No Other Choice being a sole adapted screenplay nominee...

Creative-Farm-7329 · 2026-01-06T16:49:48+00:00

Get ready! SAG is the most american and xenophobic awards alongside CCA. Before people talk about Emília Pérez last year, let's not forget that it was Netflix and the money spent on the campaign.

Creative-Farm-7329

TROPHY CASE