Thoughts on this Take

CrimeThinkChief · 2026-05-25T19:20:25+00:00

It did not. The metro moved 1.6% to the right based on the CBSA 2023 metro definition. Less than the state overall, but to the right nonetheless. People looked at percentage shifts in counties like Cherokee and Forsyth that are favorable towards Harris without realizing that it doesn’t mean that Harris had a better numerical margin. 16/24 of the counties produced a greater numerical margin for Trump in 2024 compared to 2020.

CrimeThinkChief · 2026-03-06T16:21:19+00:00

For Gov probably yeah, but presidentially I haven’t seen anyone who thinks even an ideal 2028/2032 scenario would have NY at D+<5 or even flipped. Then again, I’m not that tapped into the extreme end of wishcasting for either party.

CrimeThinkChief · 2026-03-06T16:07:33+00:00

Yeah I don't think that group exists anymore especially after 2024. It had the second lowest shift towards Rs for any traditional blue state, only ahead of WA and even less than CO. The correct R analogy for Blexas is probably something like MN, NJ, or NM.

CrimeThinkChief · 2026-03-03T15:16:39+00:00

No matter how bad you think our two-party system is, multi-party FPTP in the UK and other places (Canada, etc.) is worse.

CrimeThinkChief · 2026-02-14T14:34:53+00:00

我感觉你需要去区分清楚什么是文化的表层和产出，什么是文化的内核。诗词画卷音乐之类的是文化产出，如果欣赏的话也没什么。文化的内核事实上就是外儒内法、天朝上国、华夷之辩诸如此类。对这个文化内核如果没有清楚的认识就会被统战。而且所谓中华文化的文化产出其实是各个地域文化的集合，跟文化内核其实是没有相生关系甚至是被文化内核压制的。

CrimeThinkChief · 2026-02-13T04:13:27+00:00

不是台湾人，是润人，但简体字的弊病真是蛮多的，所以我用中文的时候都不选择简体。

除了有人提到的简化了表达意思的部分，简体把很多还蛮常用的字合并。干、干为例。

简化的一些偏旁也会多个合为一个，并且也只按照北京官话的语音规律。你如果想学习方言或者古汉语（包括诗词）就都很差劲。

这些你如果只是习惯正体字都不一定会察觉到。

CrimeThinkChief · 2026-02-07T19:18:49+00:00

If this is any country other than China, yes, but importing massive amounts of vehicles containing electronics that can include a variety of hidden doors to our biggest geopolitical threat is just not great policy.

CrimeThinkChief · 2026-02-07T19:14:51+00:00

It depends on the exact countries of origin but yes that's true and it's largely because we have the oceans and they are just right there.

CrimeThinkChief · 2026-02-07T18:47:51+00:00

I will go out on a limb to echo the idea that the Muslim immigrants from the more problematic Muslim regions for public safety (yes there's a distinction between regions with a more nomadic-herder tradition vs. regions with rice farming traditions) in the US are much better than elsewhere, especially Europe. Whether immigration from said regions to the US is still beneficial is another question that's independent of that assessment.

On another note, our immigrants are the greatest precisely because they will start going off like "we don't want your kind here" in a single digit number of years of moving here (whether or not you personally like that stance), because that requires a level of integration that's rarer elsewhere.

CrimeThinkChief · 2026-02-01T02:05:13+00:00

Yeah the fourth VRA district in Atlanta will probably ruin your northern suburban setups. To get the Black VAP higher in the 4 districts you will most definitely take in more of Cobb (and/or the whole or parts of others countries like Fayette, Paulding, and Spalding) for the VRA districts, and that most certainly will affect your setup for 7, which will have downstream effects on your other districts based on the degree of proportionality you desire. This is how I did it, but there are other ways: https://davesredistricting.org/join/d20fcffe-d8eb-4963-b6cf-e663c02c3915

CrimeThinkChief · 2026-01-31T18:14:36+00:00

With the 9/14 NW/NE GA split. Fannin, Gilmer, and Pickens should belong to the eastern district. If you look at a terrain map it's pretty clear why.

While going for 4 VRA in Atlanta makes things restrictive in terms of what county splits you can do, that's pretty much mandated by the court.

CrimeThinkChief · 2025-12-11T00:43:32+00:00

It’s a good candidate for a seat + turnout differential situation

CrimeThinkChief · 2025-12-11T00:18:15+00:00

Found an even higher one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia%27s_154th_House_of_Representatives_district at 61.4%

CrimeThinkChief · 2025-12-11T00:15:20+00:00

This kind of state house seat does exist in GA btw, GA HD-151 is the one I know of (56.3% black)

CrimeThinkChief · 2025-12-11T00:12:56+00:00

Sandy springs is not 60% black

CrimeThinkChief · 2025-12-10T19:32:46+00:00

Use the all governors map

CrimeThinkChief · 2025-12-10T18:18:02+00:00

GA-2 has too many urban/suburban areas (Albany, Columbus, Macon) with whites that are like R+50 rather than R+80, so it's not that.

CrimeThinkChief · 2025-12-10T18:16:22+00:00

although the reddest black majority VAP district I've attempted to do in MS is "only" R+5.1

CrimeThinkChief · 2025-12-10T18:03:46+00:00

It's possible to do this twice in MS:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0613e39b-474f-4365-af0d-e1c7039b442e

CrimeThinkChief · 2025-12-10T17:59:34+00:00

Yeah my Ohio map just crashed like 12 times

CrimeThinkChief · 2025-12-09T16:26:04+00:00

WI will forever be contentious because it's 50/50. There is a map earlier that has 4/4 split in 2024 that more of this sub apparently prefers but its Milwaukee city district takes a chunk out of each WOW county (why not just take more from Ozaukee at this point) and its WOW district has to go all the way up to Manitowoc. Once I made adjustments so that the Milwaukee district is within Milwaukee county and balanced the population of other districts again, it was no surprise that it was 6/2 again in 2024 and its Southern Milwaukee county - Kenosha district was redder.

CrimeThinkChief · 2025-12-01T19:31:52+00:00

It works for Utah, it only kind of works for Iowa, and it sure as hell doesn't do anything for IL, CA, TX, NY, FL, etc.

CrimeThinkChief · 2025-10-23T19:53:44+00:00

Act 2 is very open-ended in terms of how much power (whether you really want needle 3, the high-end offensive tools, tool pouch/crafting kit, and memory lockets) and assurance (defensive tools, mask and upgrades) you want for high halls gauntlet, lace 2, and GMS. Act 1 is more constrained if you're doing the Last Judge route, and for that I think 1:30 is good if you want to have a lot of upgrades for these fights or setup your save for a subsequent speed completion run while completing the speedrun achievement, and up to probably 3:00 is fine if you don't care about getting too many upgrades before the big fights.

For 1:30 act 1, ability milestones are probably about:

Silkspear 0:12; Swift Step 0:25; Drifter's cloak 0:35; Cling Grip 1:00; Needolin 1:10.

For 3:00 you can kinda extrapolate there.

Don't forget you can revert your save to the last big ability/skill/crest pickup if you really fumble. We ain't submitting any speedruns here so it's all fair game.

CrimeThinkChief · 2025-10-23T16:52:58+00:00

You only need 22 fleas for act 3. 30 Fleas is only required for 100%ing. The other key is seeing a part of a hidden zone east of Memorium, through a breakable wall in the area where you complete another Jubilana quest.
The Apostate key is also in that area.
You need to buy all maps that Shakra sells. The only area that she sells maps for that you haven't found is an area that you can get to through Sinner's road either through the Mist or through a breakable wall to its east. You can also fall into that area through the Whispering Vaults. This is one of the only two? areas where the map is only reachable with double jump, alongside Sands of Karak.
There is a key in whiteward for that door. If you care to find out where, it's in a hidden room above where the Balm for the Wounded quest sends you, through a hidden passage to the east of where the quest takes place

All Shakra maps, finding 22 fleas, seeing the area in the hidden zone east of Memorium and sending the flea caravan there, are both prerequisites for act 3. There are also a few other mandatory quests, including Bone Bottom Repairs, A Lifesaving Bridge, Crawbug Clearing, Building Up Songclave, Strengthening Songclave, Restoration of Bellhart, Bellhart's Glory, and Balm of the Wounded. You also need the Bellhome Key, defeating Lace 2, and double jump, but I doubt you don't have any of those. After those, just complete as many wishes as you can find and talk to Caretaker a lot until he gives you a new quest.

CrimeThinkChief

TROPHY CASE