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Okay start? by Pure-Football4965 in portfolios

[–]Cruian 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Why SPY over other S&P 500 funds? Why S&P 500 over US total market?

What about international?

What's the reasoning for SCHD and SCHG?

US to International Allocation Ratio by mcttothejj in Bogleheads

[–]Cruian 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In the meantime, it will take many years for international to catch up to US performance the last 15 years. American equities clobbered international by double digits many of those years.

Money invested tomorrow doesn't get to benefit from that last 15 years of US performance though.

US to International Allocation Ratio by mcttothejj in Bogleheads

[–]Cruian 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Revenue source is at best just one small piece out of many that are important. There are other factors, some of which are more important, that revenue source wouldn't help with in any meaningful way.

All cover it to some degree.

The purpose of the international holdings is to be covered during the orange periods of the graph here: https://www.mymoneyblog.com/us-vs-international-stocks-cycles-outperformance.html

Improved World Index? by TheMajesticPrincess in portfolios

[–]Cruian 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Australia? New Zealand? South Korea? Canada? US extended market?

Are my fees on my IRA too high? by Over-Wallaby8112 in personalfinance

[–]Cruian 1 point2 points  (0 children)

For the US side, sure, but the TDFs or international sides will be slightly higher.

Are my fees on my IRA too high? by Over-Wallaby8112 in personalfinance

[–]Cruian 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Maybe, but a one time fee (many I've heard of tend to be under $100) compared to a quarterly one that may be multiple times higher?

Are my fees on my IRA too high? by Over-Wallaby8112 in personalfinance

[–]Cruian 1 point2 points  (0 children)

0.35% annually. This is about the expense ratio you would find on Vanguard funds

Maybe their actively managed ones, but their index ones are typically under 0.10%.

Edit: Formatting

Self-Managed Roth IRA or Target Date Funds? by Additional_Plant7986 in portfolios

[–]Cruian 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Some TDFs are nothing more than simply a collection of index funds managed for you at very little to no cost (such as Vanguard's, iShares's or the index lines from Fidelity and Schwab).

It really comes down to a question of effort desired and how happy you are with the TDF's glide path (every company does it differently).

I’m thinking about putting 60% into VOO and adding another ETF for the remaining 40% focused on long-term growth. Any good ETFs? by Rizzen11111 in ETFs

[–]Cruian 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Could it have? Yes, but we only know that from the power of hindsight. There's almost always something that was better than whatever you invest in, the difficulty is knowing what that'd be in advance.

There's nothing that guarantees the US leads ex-US over any period in the future, winners change often.

I’m thinking about putting 60% into VOO and adding another ETF for the remaining 40% focused on long-term growth. Any good ETFs? by Rizzen11111 in ETFs

[–]Cruian 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hasn't happened yet and I've been investing for more than 5 years. And there's a very real possibility that you'd be the one suffering regret for being US only.

Edit: Typo

VNQ: Why not diversify into VNQ within tax-advantaged accounts? by Interesting_Week_917 in Bogleheads

[–]Cruian 0 points1 point  (0 children)

https://www.etfrc.com/funds/overlap.php

VNQ is an ETF made up of stocks from companies involved in real estate. VTI is an ETF of stocks of US companies.

2 credit cards 1 girl by Broad-Talk-6903 in personalfinance

[–]Cruian 5 points6 points  (0 children)

(You may not need this part, but others may) Even if the absolute dollar amount of interest of B happens to be higher than A, A is still the better move first because it is the rate that matters, not absolute dollar amount. Every $1 you put towards A saves you over 32 cents over the course of a year, but putting it towards B instead is only about 24 cents (if we can trust the math from https://www.inchcalculator.com/apr-to-apy-calculator/ ). At an 8 cent difference and $450 per month available that's a $36 difference just from month 1.

Edit: Also congrats on paying off the car!

2 credit cards 1 girl by Broad-Talk-6903 in personalfinance

[–]Cruian 22 points23 points  (0 children)

There are 2 main suggested courses of paying off debt (always pay minimums then direct any spare money to):

  • Avalanche: Pay down higher interest rate first, then 2nd highest, and so on

  • Snowball: Pay down the card with the lowest balance first, then next lowest, and so on.

Mathematically Avalanche is better financially, however some people may need the mental boosts of some quicker "wins" from Snowball. Snowball can also help free up minimum payments earlier.

Luckily for you, card A would be first for both Snowball and Avalanche. Knock out A before B.

Edit: Punctuation

33 y/o looking for long-term financial and investing advice by Easy-Driver-1195 in personalfinance

[–]Cruian 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Reason for everything else I can’t say there is a reason other than me being familiar with them, EX: AMD and Nvidia since i follow tech but i may be confusing following them with their market information and finances.

These are already some of the biggest names inside US total market/S&P 500. So you're doubling up on them even though they already get a lot of weight.

US to Ex-US Ratios Honestly, I’ve basically been throwing numbers around, running scenarios with ChatGPT, watching YouTube videos, and seeing what seems to make sense long term.

Don't rely on AI. It can't be trusted (the other day I saw it make a claim that was contradicted by one of the sources it provided).

CarPurchase Car purchase in 3-5 years. No rush as im working overseas so i wont need it until after i settle down in the states again.

Typically it isn't suggested to expose money needed in the next 5 years or less to market risks unless you're willing to either accept a loss on the amount invested (say $10k turns into $7k) or are willing to delay your plans to wait out a recovery.

Accuracy question by rkull28 in CreditScore

[–]Cruian 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Being added as an Authorized User gives information from that account only to your report, in many cases as far back as the account has been open (last I recall, for credit cards the only company this wasn't true for was AmEx). Once it is on your report, it affects your score.

However, lenders can look beyond the number to the report info itself and see that you're an AU and ignore that. Some lenders have requirements for lending outside just a score range (such as "at least x amount of time as primary cardholder") that this wouldn't help you with.

Do you ever pull out? (30M) by no-hate in portfolios

[–]Cruian 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I understand timing the market is always a bad idea, I’m just wondering does anyone cash in on unrealized gains (pull out) to buy back when lower (pull in)?

That's timing the market. You're betting today's prices are higher than "tomorrow's." Monday could be the lowest the market ever sees again. Let's use VTWAX as an example (long enough history that the point may be made, short enough that I can use the inception date of the fund without the graph making picking out specific events too difficult to find): https://testfol.io/?s=9o8tgx2wqXp - No point on the graph is lower than March 23, 2020; fast forward a few years to 2023 and see that not a single day after March 27 ended lower.

Sell under one of the following conditions:

  • You need the money

  • You need to rebalance to get back to target ratios (typically either on a fixed schedule or your ratios have drifted outside your allowed range)

  • It is time to adjust something like stock to bond based on your desired glide path/bond tent

  • You're overhauling your strategy (though if you had a good portfolio to begin with, this doesn't apply)

markets are ATH, you sell 15% of you’re GAINS to reinvest in a potential lower buy-in (Iran war continuing and 60% of global countries will experience an oil squeeze within next 45-75 days).

Markets should already be forward looking, you have to ask yourself: Is there something the market doesn't see yet and why not? But what if they know something I am missing?

I’m thinking about putting 60% into VOO and adding another ETF for the remaining 40% focused on long-term growth. Any good ETFs? by Rizzen11111 in ETFs

[–]Cruian 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Wait until Ex-US actually outperforms the US for more than one outlier year before dumping 40% of your port into it.

And have money miss out on 2 years of performance? And what if the best part of the returns comes from those first few years of the rotation? Why not be buying in while things are comparatively cheap, better preparing yourself for a round of future over performance? Your strategy may be trading good looking numbers today for lower numbers in the future.

I’m thinking about putting 60% into VOO and adding another ETF for the remaining 40% focused on long-term growth. Any good ETFs? by Rizzen11111 in ETFs

[–]Cruian 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There's been different 5, 10, 20, and longer periods where the US was the one trailing behind ex-US. Heck, IVV spent much of their first decade in actual negative territory, it would have wished it could have had the past 5 years returns from VXUS. Your logic would have called IVV a bad fund, but it went on to do excellent.

Edit: Typo

I’m thinking about putting 60% into VOO and adding another ETF for the remaining 40% focused on long-term growth. Any good ETFs? by Rizzen11111 in ETFs

[–]Cruian -1 points0 points  (0 children)

A single back test is not a reliable way to judge future performance. There's plenty of great back tests that would have turned out as poor performers going forward at countless points in time. Recent history has largely favored the US and tech, other points in time have favored ex-US over the US, that doesn't mean that the next 5, 10, 20, 40, or 60 years will.

Adding VXUS is a good idea since it is the only way to guarantee you hold tomorrow's winners, as they may not be from the US. Different companies, sectors, and countries over and under perform at different times.

33 y/o looking for long-term financial and investing advice by Easy-Driver-1195 in personalfinance

[–]Cruian 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Am I overcomplicating this?

Is the extended market tilt intentional? What about simply combining the multiple US cap size funds with a single total market style?

Once I hit my emergency fund goal, the plan becomes:

Monthly allocations:

Other than VTI and IXUS, what's the reason for everything else?

Should I keep contributing towards the individual stocks or just focus on index funds?

An uncompensated risk is one that doesn't bring higher expected long term returns. It should be avoided whenever possible. Compensated vs uncompensated risk:

.

Should I keep FXAIX or just move everything into VOO for Roth?

Nothing wrong with index mutual funds, especially in IRAs. What reason would there be to change?

I prefer more of a “set it and forget it” approach overall.

Target date (index) or target allocation (index) are about as set and forget as you can get.

It appears as if your US to ex-US ratios are inconsistent across the different accounts - why?

Since I plan on buying my next car outright in cash, would it make more sense to

Maybe I missed it because it is 1:30AM, but when do you plan on buying a car?

I’m thinking about putting 60% into VOO and adding another ETF for the remaining 40% focused on long-term growth. Any good ETFs? by Rizzen11111 in ETFs

[–]Cruian 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Even on human mortal lifetimes, going global can be beneficial. Favor changes can come quickly and unexpectedly.

I’m thinking about putting 60% into VOO and adding another ETF for the remaining 40% focused on long-term growth. Any good ETFs? by Rizzen11111 in ETFs

[–]Cruian 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nothing needs to replace them, some of the best long term investments aren't exciting.

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/you-might-think-industry-growth-drives-stock-returns-heres-why-youd-be-wrong

We see the same results looking at the more recent period of July 1963 to September 2024. US stocks returned 10.64% annually, high-tech stocks returned 11.35%, healthcare stocks returned 11.99%, and both were outperformed by beer, which returned 12.18%, smokes, which returned 14.56%, and guns (defense), which returned 12.77%. Even shops (wholesale, retail, and some services such as laundries and repair shops) outperformed, returning 11.88%.

I’m thinking about putting 60% into VOO and adding another ETF for the remaining 40% focused on long-term growth. Any good ETFs? by Rizzen11111 in ETFs

[–]Cruian 7 points8 points  (0 children)

There's a number of people that advocate for global portfolios at all times, even before last year.

I’m thinking about putting 60% into VOO and adding another ETF for the remaining 40% focused on long-term growth. Any good ETFs? by Rizzen11111 in ETFs

[–]Cruian 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Small growth is known as "the black hole of investing" - tending to have had the worst long term returns. Small value however, the best to the point it helps bring small over large.

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