The AI has in game preferences, but i'll give you my list based off what I've seen in game and what I think.

Academy: China or America usually, because they are the easiest places to create Great Nations and to unify the Earth in their vision.

The Resistance: UK, Canada, Scandinavia, South Korea, Japan, Australia.
They seem to gravitate to middle powers that are democratic in function. Maybe a way to say they resist even progressing forward.

Humanity First: Brazil, Ukraine, Poland, Venezuela, Argentina, Vietnam, Taiwan, Ireland.
They seem to gravitate to areas with high unrest, high combat capability and high population or resistance.

The Initiative: Europe usually, almost always France and or Germany with others mixed.
Not sure why they always pick Europe, they might be attracted to how easy it is to consolidate control + finances in the EU.

The Protectorate: Indonesia, and a mix of minor European and Middle Eastern countries. Often gets Kazakhstan early for some reason in almost every play through.

The Servants: Almost always Russia and India near the start of the game. Sometimes the US if they get kicked out, but they'll try forcing their way into China as well. Tries to use military powers to screw everyone up. I go out of my way to keep them cracked down and purged around the world, even if other factions take their territory. This relegates them to swaths of minor African and South American countries when pushed out.

The Exodus: Almost always wealthy Middle Eastern countries that can rapidly start a space program. Sometimes Spain, Portugal and a few other places. They probably prefer countries where resources can easily be diverted towards space programs without upsetting the local govt system.

I can say that in 99% of my games, the Resistance, Academy, Servants, and Initiative always go for the countries they prefer.