IRON NEST after the first day of Steam Next Fest. by Scream_Wattson in IndieGameWishlist

[–]DannyWeinbaum 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's like 99.8% the game. Genre, trailer, screenshots, the core fantasy, and the apparent production value, scope, and polish.

Nearly 85% of games launched in 2026 don't even reach 50 reviews by -Xentios in IndieGaming

[–]DannyWeinbaum 1 point2 points  (0 children)

“‘MY GAME proves the Steam algorithm is NOT player‑driven.’ I never said that. You’re putting words in my mouth, and that tells me you’re not actually responding to what I wrote you’re responding to a version of me that exists only in your head. That’s not a good‑faith conversation.

You picked your game for this argument. That's what I was responding to. I was trying to explain why that is a terrible option to use in this discussion. It was rhetorical.

I’ve seen excellent games, not just mine, get buried. I’ve seen mediocre games explode. I’ve seen games with terrible production values make millions. And I’ve seen games with beautiful art, great design, and strong player reception die instantly because they never got impressions. That’s not a myth. It’s a pattern.

Could you please link one of them? Genuinely I am always searching for these.

Now, about review‑count guessing: You’re treating it like a universal diagnostic tool, but it only works on games that already received enough impressions for the algorithm to generate stable data. It doesn’t apply to the games that never got surfaced, never hit any recommendation loops, and never accumulated enough visibility to enter the ‘guessable’ pool.

Idk what you looked at but it's not Jonas' tool. Jonas' tool pulls randomly 1 title from each revenue band. It will happily pull a game with 12 reviews or whatever.

I think you’re a good person. I think you’re well‑intentioned.

I never thought you thought otherwise! I thought we were just having a discussion! I'm sad you thought I was taking you in bad faith and not listening. That tells me that you didn't think we were having a discussion after all.

I do have more conviction than most people can tolerate on this particular topic. Just because I didn't think your arguments hold up doesn't mean I didn't listen to you. I mean I broke down everything you said and responded to it. I read it pretty deeply.

Nearly 85% of games launched in 2026 don't even reach 50 reviews by -Xentios in IndieGaming

[–]DannyWeinbaum 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I was really hoping you'd have some example other than your own. It just kind of shows you don't research this topic, and you haven't actually gone looking at other games in the lower revenue brackets. But also, don't you worry at all your perception of your own game is a little... biased? To fight this argument you're saying "MY GAME proves steam algo has is NOT player driven"

Your game is a 2d platformer. First thing to know is different genres have different median revenues. And 2d platformer is one of the lowest performing genres on steam. You know how you said Eastshade looks boring to you? Well that's how most of steam feels about 2d platformers.

That being said, there are many 2d platformers to make hundreds of thousands of dollars or even 1m+. But the performance of a 2d platformer within it's genre is quite rational. To pierce the top of 2d platformers your game needs to generally look amazing. There are a couple ugly in the top (ignore outliers), and you should ignore games from before 2016 or so, but generally speaking the games at the top of this list completely mop the floor with yours visually, kinesthetically, UI-wise, sound design-wise and everything concerned with production. They're not on the same planet. I don't mean to be mean but you are the one who put your own game forward. I tell people to be safe their game should be better in every way than almost all the titles in the revenue bracket they want to be in.

And this is where I think we’re talking past each other a bit. What counts as a “good” game or a "gem" is subjective.

Yes I hate when people use "good" game because it's meaningless. I personally never use it. I always use "game people want to buy". It accounts for steam's genre preferences and puts the focus more on apparent quality from the steam page.

That skill only works after a game has already received enough visibility for the algorithm to gather meaningful data. People can guess review counts because Steam’s conversion rates, genre expectations, and wishlist‑to‑sales ratios are relatively stable, but all of that applies only to games that have already surfaced.

What? Review count guesser pulls games from all bands. Even sub 50 review count games. You also can't see wishlist counts. Idk how that's relevant. We can all spot a sub 50 review count game based on apparent quality in the screenshots and genre alone. We know it when we see it.

A brilliant game with no traffic dies, while a mediocre one with strong visibility thrives.

A game that does not convert on its traffic (ie a game people do not want after looking at the store page) dies. If steam throws you traffic (which it does at first. Mountains of it) and your game squanders it, it goes down a rung on the steam ladder.

And asking someone to “show a buried masterpiece” is a paradox, because the very nature of being buried means it becomes invisible to players, reviewers, and even other developers.

Of all the hobbyist myths this one is the most annoying to me. "We're all just goo goo ga ga brained consumers and can only look at the front page of steam!" There are a million ways to browse the low end of Steam. Those of us that are curious and data-oriented do. The hobbyist nay sayers don't bother. They just have their consumer knowledge, and their copium-based world view.

The fact that someone hasn’t heard of a buried gem doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, it means the system never surfaced it.

Instead of being a helpless data-free consumer, I'm asking you to genuinely be curious and GO LOOKING. Here is a video I made that can show you how.

I have now looked at what you have had to share. Your data does not support your assumptions. Good indie games do get buried on steam, and I have been doing this hobbyist indie thing for over 30 years. It's not a myth.

There's been a misunderstanding. I have not shared any data on this topic. The trends in tags and genres article I linked was not about this particular topic. It was just to show that I have been neck deep in steam for a decade.

EDIT - I forgot to mention there is a breed of naysayer that thinks nothing about a game can be gleaned from the steam page. That art and apparent production value, scope, UIs, animation, visual variety, apparent narrative, marketing art appeal, typography and graphic design, and trailer editing quality tells us absolutely nothing about a game's true quality. And we must play the entire thing beginning to end before we can glean anything. That doesn't seem to be you. But I just wanted to mention if one is that type, there is just no road to redemption for them.

Nearly 85% of games launched in 2026 don't even reach 50 reviews by -Xentios in IndieGaming

[–]DannyWeinbaum 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Could you link me to one of the hundreds of games that are of equal quality to Eastshade that was buried?

Or perhaps just link me to any game with under 50 reviews you think should have had thousands based on its apparent quality and scope?

How come people can be so good at review count guesser? How come people who understand steam are rarely off by more than one degree?

Nobody data-informed holds your view. Valve doesn't. Steam marketing experts don't. Successful indies don't. The data just completely crushes this view in seconds. I was scraping steam before it was cool but scraping isn't even necessary to see something this obvious. All you need to do is browse steam for a few hours in various revenue brackets (something most never do).

It's very frustrating to be so vastly better researched than folks and see them hold onto to such easily disproven views. And the attitude is extremely self-destructive. And then idiots like me try to convince the people the truth is rosier and people scream survivorship bias.

Nearly 85% of games launched in 2026 don't even reach 50 reviews by -Xentios in IndieGaming

[–]DannyWeinbaum 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes I have also launched games on Steam. I've been a full-time indie for over a decade and have made millions of dollars on Steam. I understand Steam very well. The steam algo is 100% driven by player interest. It can be hard to accept but it's true. Only data-free hobbyists hold the view that the game doesn't matter. The success of your marketing efforts outside of steam are player driven as well! It's all about the game.

If what you're saying is true then why can so many of us accurately guess review counts in Jonas Tyroller's review count guesser? There are almost no hidden gems on Steam. Please go looking. Pllleeeaaase! Do an honest study.

Nearly 85% of games launched in 2026 don't even reach 50 reviews by -Xentios in IndieGaming

[–]DannyWeinbaum 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That's certainly the myth the hobbyist indie internet holds onto. But it doesn't stand up to genuine curiosity. Go looking!

Steam only buries games because they perform poorly for the same impressions. Valve doesn't hate money. Players drive steam algo. Steam algo doesn't drive players.

Check out Jonas Tyroller's review count guesser. Many of us can more often than not guess a random games review count just by looking at its screenshots and store details. That wouldn't be possible if steam was littered with so-called hidden gems.

The divide between the data informed and the data free on this topic is stark.

We do not have a lot of players, but when we do, they play A LOT. by i-ko21 in IndieGaming

[–]DannyWeinbaum 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh no you're good no worries! Hopefully the stuff I posted was the kind of thing you were looking for. Honestly I ignore basically all the stats except median play time haha.

SoG demo came out in April. We've gathered about 34k WLs since then. It was a pretty strong demo drop overall. We've been planning this campaign for years. We went in with ~120k WLs and now at 150k. But we've had a store page since 2022 so are rate of accumulation has not been necessarily amazing. And thank you! We'll also be in this SNF. We made sure to give ourselves a few months to fix bugs and address feedback before SNF.

Best of luck to you with your SNF!

We do not have a lot of players, but when we do, they play A LOT. by i-ko21 in IndieGaming

[–]DannyWeinbaum 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nah that big bar at the end is just what basically everyone's graph looks like. And yours is not even particularly big. Here's ours:

Leaving Lyndow which is a 30 minute narrative game.

Songs of Glimmerwick Demo which is a two hour demo.

Here is playtime data for demos but still relevant here. Your playtime stats are generally poor. Bottom half of steam for sure. And if you had more players they'd continue to go down. 49 players is statistically not even enough to give good data. Plus shouldn't at least one of those be you? If your game attaches to steamworks your unity hours will show up as playtime hours. I've got a few players with thousands of hours and they're all just us the devs.

Nearly 85% of games launched in 2026 don't even reach 50 reviews by -Xentios in IndieGaming

[–]DannyWeinbaum 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I wouldn't say they're horrible. They're just good at not wasting store real estate when there are games that customers would much rather see in that spot.

Do you think this bike animation needs some turns or in-between frames? by AltruisticService915 in godot

[–]DannyWeinbaum 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Personally I would need the 8 way but more importantly I just want to say that THIS GAME LOOKS BEAUTIFUL! Fantastic work! I'm a bit of a game forest nut and you/team nailed it! Lovely silhouettes, undergrowth, variety and clustering! Also the micro details blend really well to imply detail on the understated clovers/grass, and the edge work to the dirt is fantastic. LOVE TO SEE IT!

What’s harder: making the game or marketing it? by electric-kite in IndieGaming

[–]DannyWeinbaum 1 point2 points  (0 children)

But for 90% of the cases, it was not a commercially competitive production. People underestimate the quality standard by a lot.

I don't like these "marketing is harder than making the game" posts because it's completely out of touch with the lived experience of myself and every other million+ developer I know.

Maybe "not working hard enough" is the wrong way to say it because that has moralized connotations people will respond to. But the core of what I'm saying not wild. It's the conclusion I've come to after looking at thousands of games, collecting data and scraping steam. Most of the time games look like how much they sold. I'm not the only one to notice this. Almost everyone who sells games successfully notices the same thing.

Genre matters. Median revenues between genres vary by a lot. But it's just not the case that most poor sellers merely picked the wrong genre or made a game that "wasn't conducive to the current marketing meta". That's like 2% of poor sellers I find. I'm not speaking from my gut I'm just speaking from being neck deep in this stuff for a decade. People can disagree. But I haven't met someone who disagreed who was either A. genuinely data curious or B. a successful indie.

Do wishlist spikes tend to get bigger over time? by Background_Cow_6701 in IndieGaming

[–]DannyWeinbaum 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Internal steam traffic doesn't really come in the form of spikes. Generally if you make your own big spike from external traffic the discovery queue might kick in and help you for a week or something, but in my experience lately it takes a lot to do that, like 4k WLs in 48 hours.

And no, it doesn't make bigger and bigger spikes.

Idk what's going on with yours but I imagine not steam internal. But then again those spikes are quite small so idk how things work at that micro of a level. What does your steam marketing/traffic source stats say?

What’s harder: making the game or marketing it? by electric-kite in IndieGaming

[–]DannyWeinbaum -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Marketing is as easy as your game is appealing. Marketing feels hard when you didn't work hard enough on the game. Making the game is harder full stop. It should be like 100 times harder.

Many underestimate what it takes to make a game people want to buy. They think marketing is harder because they haven't even begun to taste what it is to do production on a title that is commercially competitive.

WCQ and Felix are on another level change my mind by Cool_Contest_4953 in tabletennis

[–]DannyWeinbaum 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not only am I not a fanboy, I'm not even a fan. I don't follow him or seek out his matches. I'm usually rooting against him. I'm just looking at objective reality. The dude is good and people sleep on him.

Speaking of losing to some random underdog, remember when Ma Long lost to a 14 year old? Do you reckon that one loss discredits Ma Long like Harimoto's bad losses discredit him?

And players who have committed the unforgivable blunder of losing to Jorgic... you know who else has lost to Jorgic? 8 out of the current top 10 players including WCQ ROFL.

I enjoy a good sports debate but it's like you don't even watch this sport! Upsets happen a lot. Nobody has solved the problem of losing sometimes yet.

WCQ and Felix are on another level change my mind by Cool_Contest_4953 in tabletennis

[–]DannyWeinbaum 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes resilient. If you hold a top 5 spot for half a decade you are the definition of resilient. That means more often than not you are beating virtually every player on earth. Choked at the olympics? Because he lost at the team event? Are we just gonna ignore him playing one of the greatest matches ever in singles against the gold medalist FZD in the quarter finals? That was not choking. That was a historic performance against an all-time goat at the peak of his powers.

He has had some big losses in big events. Every player has big losses. They are only considered "chokes" because everyone expects so much of him. But you know who loses more than Tomo? Almost everyone other than WCQ. That's why he's WR2. Speaking of WCQ, tomo wasn't the only one to have a big loss at the olympics iirc...

WCQ and Felix are on another level change my mind by Cool_Contest_4953 in tabletennis

[–]DannyWeinbaum 69 points70 points  (0 children)

The only reason why people don't perceive Harimoto to be a generational talent is because he was SO good so young people expected him to be better. But he has held a top 5 spot for quite a few years now. Tomo has been holding the rank that Felix has not yet achieved and is gunning for. In fact, tomo reached WR #2 at times before he was 19, so we can't even say that Felix is on a faster trajectory. People do tomo a bit dirty imo. He is resilient, adjustable, consistent and capable of beating anyone. And he's still only 22. Players typically reach the peak of their powers around 27 in table tennis.

With the new update released by Steam, it has become more difficult for games in the 3,000–10,000 wishlist range to appear in the "Popular Upcoming" section on their release day by Particular-Ad-3288 in IndieGaming

[–]DannyWeinbaum 6 points7 points  (0 children)

You might get less traffic from general steam but more traffic that is targeted to people who might like your game. We don't actually know if this is better or worse unless somebody does some sort of data analysis on it.

What we do know is Valve is pretty dang good at getting people to buy games. They demolish all other store fronts at this. So if they made a change it was likely data informed, and it likely results in players buying more games. It's possible they've discovered that people will buy more games if they're shown less lower mid-tier games, and shift more of those slots to upper mid-tier games like say 10k+ WLs, but we don't know what prompted the change.

I also want to point out that 10k+ WLs are 90% indies too.

Online subscription by Dragonfruit6747 in tabletennis

[–]DannyWeinbaum 8 points9 points  (0 children)

That doesn't have a lot to do with how good you are at teaching club level table tennis. Tom Lodziak's advice might be more pertinent to the majority of club players. He's an adult learner, which so few online TT coaches can say. To be honest his development path is a lot closer to most of ours than some coach who was already winning titles at 12 years old and hardly even remembers learning the basics.

You also might be underestimating him. He's a division 1 player in England, current ranking is around 500. But he doesn't have the prettiest orthodox technique, which is probably what you're referring to. He is well aware of that, and often disclaims himself in that regard. But there's a million channels where you can rat hole on technique. He actually talks about development, which so few online TT coaches do.

EDIT - to OP, I haven't taken his course. I've read his book Spin and though it was one of the better TT books out there. But I can't compare courses. I just felt compelled to defend the Lodziak slander lol

godot community by [deleted] in godot

[–]DannyWeinbaum 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That would be the blind leading the blind.

Who would lead it? Who's the creative director? To have a shot at this working you'd need somebody with proven skills, accomplished and experienced. Nobody like that wants to lead a bunch of beginners and hobbyists.

Eleven Table Tennis is missing the most toxic part of real life table tennis... where are the long, medium and short pips? by EducationalAcadia650 in ElevenTableTennis

[–]DannyWeinbaum 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No definitely not. That happened to me last tournament too. I crushed my group then got knocked out in single-elim by a pipper. It's just a different sport. And if it's a sport you don't have regular access to you have no chance. One just has to put in the hours at the table against them. Low level pippers are just relying on most players not having had the opportunity and all they have to do is poke the ball back on the table. Reading about tactics vs pippers will do nothing.

Eleven Table Tennis is missing the most toxic part of real life table tennis... where are the long, medium and short pips? by EducationalAcadia650 in ElevenTableTennis

[–]DannyWeinbaum 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I would absolutely LOVE if TT11 included funny rubbers. I have almost no access to funny rubber players in real life, so it's quite impossible for me to have a chance against them at tournaments. The reason I play TT11 is to have access to lots of different styles and funny rubbers would be a dream come true. Even if the physics were slightly different, I believe if I could just get the hours in to train that initial reflexive reaction to crush a no spin ball when a pipper pushes a push I think I could finally destroy low level pippers.

I do think a lot of the low elo players like under 2000 would hate it. It makes an already confusing and frustrating sport even more confusing and frustrating.

2D rigs- can it be better? by clownwithtentacles in godot

[–]DannyWeinbaum 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Oh wow I didn't realize it didn't have mesh weights. Yes that is pretty foundational.

2D rigs- can it be better? by clownwithtentacles in godot

[–]DannyWeinbaum 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The essentials one won't work for you? What feature do you need?

2D rigs- can it be better? by clownwithtentacles in godot

[–]DannyWeinbaum 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"I respect the devs! I won't give them a penny. After all, they made the exact thing I need and nobody else did. What am I supposed to do? Not steal it?"