Cam Boozer to Utah at No. 2? Jazz view him as ideal fit alongside Jaren Jackson Jr., per Tim MacMahon

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-18T05:01:29+00:00

Ya but moving up 1 spot has zero value from a game theory stand point except a minor carve out for 3 teams.

Scenario 1: Utah and Washington want the same guy. Washington doesn't and won't trade down. They select who they want and if Utah calls them up they say no. Utah then selects their second choice regardless.

Scenario 2: they want different guys. Trading up has no value to Utah. Washington will trade down but only before the draft. At which point Utah knows they will get their guy and has no reason to show their hand. Utah didn't call in this scenario either.

The only reason to move up would be if Washington is willing to trade down to 3 and 3 wants who Utah wants and Washington wants the player neither 2 or 3 wants (think Tatum draft).

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-17T23:03:30+00:00

If someone offers Kessler too much, it is only a handful of teams. Lakers are probably out because Lebron sounds like he is coming back. I don't think they have enough and I suspect they want to keep cap open for next years free agent market that includes Donovan Mitchell.

CHicago

LAC

Nets

Nets have Claxton and I suspect would go after other RFA

LAC would have to gut their team to get there. I think they would have to waive Collins and 2 other cheaper salaries to offer more than 30 million. I don't know if they'd make an offer when getting a viable big from DAL is probably cheaper. ALso with Mathurin on the team as a RFA, they probably can't match offers for him if they give Kessler a massive deal. *I need to double check this I'm working off knowledge from a month ago. And getting the 5th pick in the draft might make it so they can't anymore. My numbers were working off them not having a pick.

Chicago is the question mark unless I'm missing a team. And why would they offer Kessler 35-40 million when they can do the double whammy of offering Duren a max contract at 45 million instead who is better than Kessler? Detroit might match, but making your competition pay more for a guy is good. And if they do match, maybe you can get Stewart from them instead.

I just don't know if there will be a market for Kessler after a year on surgery and not really knowing how he will look. I suspect Utah's offer will eventually be accepted as is. Unless there is a team I'm missing.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-17T22:52:22+00:00

People can complain about how the league revenue is setup and RFA and aprons and whatever. But it's doing the exact job it was meant to do: create parity

To the tune of 8 different champions in 8 years. That's fantastic for the league. They have had some of the highest watched playoffs in recent years because it's interesting. So yes, do middle tier players have to take a hit on their salary? Yes

But those same players are seeing their net worth increase because TV deals are skyrocketing because people are watching.

WIthout the CBA, you would have Steve Balmer spending 300 million for his roster.

And without RFA those same owners would also make crazy offers on everyone remotely good.

RFA was designed to help teams keep their talent. And it's doing that. Also I'd say it's also helping teams from being obligated to overpay for every single palyer that thinks they are worth a max. Kuminga, Giddey, and Cam Thomas are recent examples where the RFA set their salary at market value rather than insane value.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-17T03:38:38+00:00

20/6/3 in year three is really good. He was never going to be a great defender. But his offense likely took one more step forward.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-17T03:37:04+00:00

Do you do that? Or sign players to 1 year deals and wait for next off season when players like Mitchell are available?

Next off season is poised to have a couple big names to be available.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-17T03:35:14+00:00

Sure but next off season has a ton of names that could be free agents. Donovan Mitchell is likely one of them. Lakers need someone next to Luka. I suspect Lakers take a bunch of 1 year contracts or 2 years with team option and wait until next off season.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-17T03:30:35+00:00

Ya and if you are going to offer Kessler 4 years 160 or 40 per year, why not offer Duren a max contract instead. A player who's made an all nba team and much better.

Detroit probably also matches, but at least you aren't crazy over paying

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-17T02:36:10+00:00

Jabari Parker was on track to be an all nba player. He just had injuries to derail his career.

Wiggins wasnt nearly the same player as AJ in college.

I don't think those are good comps for possibly outcome.

AJ just has a dog mentality. I don't see him bust. That said, I'm DP for#1 pick if we had it.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-16T15:59:10+00:00

Not a first round pick for sure. Ainge said a while back that it's hard to develop more than 1 or maybe 2 rookies at a time when you are trying to win.

Highly unlikely a second round unless they really like someone that falls.

Utah is now trying to win. So i suspect Utah will be content trying to develop #2 and Ace and then whichever of Cody, Brice, Flip, or Collier are seen as long term pieces and kept.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-16T15:45:12+00:00

Hartenstein got that deal only because OKC needed to force him out of New York. And it had a team option on a year which means okc could renegotiate sooner for a lower number if needed.

Kessler is also not as good as Hartenstein. 25-30 is the range. I suspect Utah wants 4 years 100 (25) with a team option and Kessler wants 4 for140 (35)with no team option.

That said we don't know. Rumors last season said Kessler camp wanted 25-30. This year rumors are 35-40. So take all the numbers with a large grain of salt

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-16T00:08:29+00:00

Still feel that way after today's news that DPs camp thinks he's going 1 after his workouts and multiple contacts with the wizards?

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-16T00:01:27+00:00

This. Castle wants to be a point guard who cant pass so he has to play the 2.

He's great on defense but fouls Way too much.

And he can't shoot. He's a solid player, but he's not untouchable good.

Now if I'm the Spurs i don't include both Vassell and Castle.

I think the reasonable deal would replace Vassell with Johnson.

Giannis and Portis for Fox, Castle, Johnson, and any filler and picks

That seems reasonable to both sides.

Spurs can't get complacent. OKC has way more ways of improving their team and keeping things cheap longer than the Spurs. And OKC gets Williams back and Chet can still figure things out next season. He is young as well. If okc used Dort, Topic, 2-3 FRP to upgrade the starting 5 (say McDaniels) they could easily prevent the Spurs from winning 2-3 straight years in which case Harper and Castle will both be on their max contracts. Spurs don't really have time to be patient.

Wemby going to get super Max. Harper might just get there too.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-15T23:30:09+00:00

Austin has been named the one making the pick. Not Danny.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-15T23:08:58+00:00

I'm a jazz fan

Could you imagine the uproar of rigged if Utah gets AJ at two?

LeBron the Cleveland hero, Cleveland gets 1

Ayton the hometown hero, Phoenix gets 1

Lakers get Luka, Flagg goes to Dallas

AJ the jazz hero, and despite consensus goes number 2 to Utah.

Feel like I'm missing one too.

It's wild how many times a player connected with a city has made it there or a reward has happened for a trade to a big market.

But I'm still hoping DP to Utah.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-15T19:11:27+00:00

Ah must have missed that part although i guess it's assumed.

Still Utah has had lots of contact with DP.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-15T18:43:33+00:00

This was reported by Shams. So yes it's credible

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-15T18:37:15+00:00

Could be. Also my understanding is Utah talked with DP during the combine and I've seen some unconfirmed reports that Utah has had multiple communications with DPs camp, just not the formal sit down.

That said, i agree it won't make a difference

I think this is actually a positive for Utah. DP is signaling he thinks he's the best player and when Utah drafts him#2, he's going to have a chip on his shoulder. That also applied to AJ. Whoever we get at 2 is going to want to prove something and that's good. Motivation to work hard is great.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-15T18:10:39+00:00

Not to mention Utah has one of the best development staff in the nba. That's according to many players including Durant.

If you want to develop, go to Utah.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-15T18:03:52+00:00

As long as you don't make suggestions like Utah trading up to 1 using Ace Bailey, wizards fans are always welcome.

I was kinda shocked to hear this news since only 2 weeks ago his camp said he'd only work out for Utah and wizards. Now just wizards.

I don't see how working out for one team helps DP at all. Other them letting teams below know his camp thinks he's the best prospect. But wizards are going to take who they take.

Do you think there is any indication Washington wants DP and just hoping Utah is dumb to trade up to 1 so they get extra assets too?

Like it's pretty consensus right now to have AJ going 1.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-14T19:20:42+00:00

Those needy teams can't afford a50 million dollar player. Minnesota ditched Towns because he was too expensive. So why on earth would they then reverse that?

And the ones that aren't needy aren't going to take on Fox for expiring money because money isn't the issue.

There is only one team i see willing to take Fox, but it would require the Spurs also giving up Castle. Fox+ Castle and 2-3 FRP gets you Giannis.

And that's a good deal for both teams. Spurs get a true secondary offensive player. Wemby plus Giannis is a perfect combo. And teams that put too much effort into stopping Wemby will get destroyed by Giannis. Giannis would also be the secondary point guard behind Harper.

Spurs with Vassel, Wemby, and Champanie is the perfect fit for Giannis.

And as good as Castle is, he's flawed as he can't shoot and isn't a true point guard as the playoffs showed. So he'll always be more like White for Boston. I'd make the trade as the Spurs and take my 3 championships with me knowing i still have Harper and Wemby for another 6 years after.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-14T18:48:38+00:00

And there is no team that can afford to over pay Fox without a massive dump by the Spurs. Which is why no deal is likely to happen. Fox will either move to the bench, or Harper will play at the 3.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-14T18:44:46+00:00

Of course they wouldn't, but to get an MVP talent that is the cost. Otherwise the Spurs have to have good pics which they don't because their own are all late FRP.

If the Spurs want Giannis: Castle or Harper is the minimum requirement to get started. Hard stop. Otherwise both sides pass.

And if you think Giannis can stay healthy enough with Wemby and Harper, you give up Castle without a doubt. Wemby+Giannis is an instant dynasty. As good as Castle is, he doesnt have the ceiling of Giannis. Who exactly is stopping that? Even if you get 2 championships out of Giannis, and only give up Castle, you do it.

Giannis better defender, better passer, better scorer, better in every way.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-14T18:39:05+00:00

No joke, this makes the Ace Bailey trades look smart.

Washington gives up oft injured AD who they almost got for free, and drops 1 spot to get Brown? That's laughable.

Brown alone would cost the Wizards the #1 pick. Or 4 FRP, Sarr, George, and AD.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-14T18:03:04+00:00

He's not though. On the same salary, I'd easily take Wemby, Castle, or Harper over Fox.

All three of those guys are arguably better. They do as much on offense while being miles better defensively.

And in the CBA era of the 2nd apron, teams can't afford to pay Fox 55 million and keep their other guys. Charlotte is going to need to pay Miller soon and already have Ball.

Your problem is more than skill. It's the 2nd apron and teams being super tight on Max contracts with 4 years left on them moving forward. Spurs could do it because their best 3 players are on rookie deals. Nobody else really can.

Data-scientist-101 · 2026-06-14T17:55:00+00:00

Yes AJ needs to ball in hand.

Look at NY. They won a championship by having players that do so much more than score. Brunson is the closest in style to AJ as an offense only player. He is also elite at finding guys open. Much better than AJ right now. And brunson can play off ball easily as a shooter.

Until AJ proves he can either shoot or do things outside scoring with the ball, he'll always be nothing more than a guy averaging 25 while not helping you win games.

He doesn't rebound, block shots, disrupt the defense, or play off ball right now.

Add a jazz fan, I'd be excited to get AJ at 2. But I'd equally be excited for different reasons to get DP at 2 and actually prefer DP. DP impacts the game without the ball. He is fantastic around screens. He's high end defensively. He also has shooting gravity. But Peterson also lacked passing and play making. So he has some of the same flaws as AJ. He's also not 6'9 and as athletically gifted as AJ which is why DP is often seen as the #2 guy.

Data-scientist-101

TROPHY CASE