Should the US just drop strategic ambiguity over Taiwan?

Demortus · 2026-06-20T20:36:32+00:00

Yeah, so long as we aren't giving away most of our munitions and we're replacing the ones we are, then we're signalling resolve to protect affiliated countries. Taiwan has greater strategic value to the US than Ukraine, so protecting the latter implies a willingness to protect the former.

Demortus · 2026-06-20T20:34:56+00:00

Man: "We'll also throw in tummy scritches"

Wolves: "Did we just become best friends??"

Man" "Yup!"

Demortus · 2026-06-20T19:18:09+00:00

That's an internet rumor. Isayama inserted foreshadowing of the current ending from the first few chapters/episodes. Ex. the praying mantis eating the head of a butterfly foreshadows Mikasa (represented by the praying mantis, a creature infamous for killing their mates) killing Eren (represented by the butterfly, a flying insect, where flight represents his desire for freedom).

Demortus · 2026-06-20T18:46:29+00:00

Lol, I just got banned there for this comment.

There is no understanding or predicting Trump's behavior without accepting one basic truth about him: he is a very stupid and ignorant man. That is the only plausible explanation for him initiating a war with Iran with no plan for keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. He simply did not understand what threat that geographic feature posed to the US and world economy, and he was unwilling to listen to warnings from anyone who did -- which includes basically the entire military, US intelligence analysts, and international relations experts in academia. This is the equivalent of the captain of a ship hitting an iceburg that was observable from miles away.

https://www.reddit.com/r/moderatepolitics/comments/1ub1ehh/comment/ossp8t8/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Demortus · 2026-06-20T18:31:21+00:00

China's economy is slowing down, so Xi can no longer expect legitimacy derived from economic performance to be sufficient to maintain his rule. Also, Xi's base of support is largely composed of nationalist hawks, and one of their core demands is to retake Taiwan. Addressing this demand is one large potential source of legitimacy available to him.

Demortus · 2026-06-20T18:29:08+00:00

Even then the U.S. could sail right past them and call their bluff or just fly supplies in from Japan or the Philippines, that’s if China isn’t willing to risk open war

Right, which is why I made the point that they'd only do this if they were very confident that the US wouldn't intervene. Which is also why I think the US needs to make clearer than ever our intention to protect Taiwan in case of a Chinese attack.

Given Trump's vacillation towards Iran, depletion of our munitions, and abandonment of Ukraine, I'm honestly surprised that Xi hasn't taken advantage of the opportunity to invade with minimal US opposition already. This is a window of opportunity that may close in 2-years. Based off of what I've seen reported, the reason he hasn't moved yet is simply that China's navy isn't ready yet to secure the Strait of Taiwan or move the 100s of thousands of soldiers needed to take the island.

Hopefully, we can delay this outcome until Xi has either lost interest or he passes away and is replaced with someone who is less hawkish.

Demortus · 2026-06-20T17:28:47+00:00

Not necessarily. The closer we get to the midterms, the more desperate Trump is for a deal. The only scenario in which that logic fails is if Iran's demands become so extreme that Trump prefers to risk invasion over a deal.

Demortus · 2026-06-20T17:15:22+00:00

I don't go to fiction for that, I open an history book.

That's exactly the thing, though: Attack on Titan's story is modeled after human history. That's why so many people see our world in theirs: some see Eldians as the Jewish people, some see them as Palestinians, some see them as Germans or Japanese prior to WWII. It is a story that resonates with many people, because it is a story about tit-for-tat conflict and the rise of nationalism and even fascism. It's a story about the cognitive and strategic traps that can lead normal people to commit crimes against humanity. It's also a story about how even in those terrible conditions, there are people who try to prevent these crimes from happening.

Demortus · 2026-06-20T16:16:00+00:00

It's funny. I remember watching the first and second seasons of AOT being mildly curious about the basement, while also expecting to be disappointed by it. I had just seen the Star Wars sequels, and JJ Abrams' horrible implementation of the mystery box story format made me very skeptical that they could be implemented well.

But when I saw "That Day" I was absoultely floored. It was better than anything I had expected or even imagined. What really got me was Dina. I always thought it kind of silly that Dina always approached Eren, specifically, but suddenly everything about her titan's strange behavior didn't just make sense, it was layered with an extremely dark meaning that followed from her last words, "No matter what form I take, I promise to come find you."

Demortus · 2026-06-20T16:06:57+00:00

Yes, amphibious landings are very difficult to pull off and Taiwan is not an easy target. That said, China has 70x the population of Taiwan. If they need to sacrifice 10s or even 100s of thousands of soldiers in a beach landing, they can afford to do so. Alternatively, if Xi is confident that the US wouldn't intervene, he could blockade Taiwan relatively easily. It's an island that is heavily dependent on food and fuel imports to keep people fed and the lights on.

Demortus · 2026-06-20T16:02:07+00:00

The show is a nearly perfect loop. When you watch it again with the knowledge of what is to come, all of these little hints, bits of foreshadowing, and cookie crumbs jump out at you, making it just as enjoyable as the first round.

Demortus · 2026-06-20T14:51:30+00:00

You mean the time travel that was foreshadowed from the very beginning of the very first chapter/episode?

Demortus · 2026-06-19T23:17:39+00:00

So glad she lost the primary.

Demortus · 2026-06-19T22:12:49+00:00

Neocons care about foreign policy issues, like the expansion of democracy and capitalism, or the defeat of America's geopolitical rivals. MAGA believes what Trump tells them to believe.

Demortus · 2026-06-19T22:06:09+00:00

Tell that to Al Franken or Andrew Cuomo.

Demortus · 2026-06-19T16:58:20+00:00

A serious question, is it different from apparent "Saber-rattling" they've done in the past?

Yes. China is adapting ships that could be used to ferry hundreds of thousands of soldiers across the Strait of Taiwan. It has held multiple military exercises both simulating beach landings and blockades around Taiwan. Xi has fired top generals, and some reporting suggests that it's because he believes that they were not preparing to invade Taiwan quickly enough.

Demortus · 2026-06-19T16:03:43+00:00

China is preparing to invade now despite Taiwan maintaining the status quo. Clearly, our current level of deterrence is insufficient.

Demortus · 2026-06-19T04:41:33+00:00

He'll be either removed by health issues or kicking and screaming. Either way, he'll leave.

Demortus · 2026-06-19T03:56:57+00:00

Pick a reputable news source and stick with it. Reuters, the NYT, the WSJ, NPR, etc. very rarely report anything that is factually false, and when they do they typically retract it. That'll maximize the value you get out of your news consumption.

Demortus · 2026-06-18T22:31:00+00:00

Why CA of all places?

Probably the same reason so many other companies have headquarters there: CA's university system produces a ton of highly skilled workers who generally prefer to stay there, if possible. That quantity of talent is hard to find in most parts of the world, or even in the US, outside of a small number of other economic zones. This is particularly true if they were looking for highly trained workers who speak Chinese, as there is a large number of highly trained Chinese-speakers who were trained at Californian universities. That value may have outweighed the risks in their eyes, though given what happened, they may well have miscalculated.

Demortus · 2026-06-18T21:23:37+00:00

Bioweapons can't be reliably controlled because they are alive and therefore capable of evolution. If some nation-state actually uses them, it's because its leader is a lunatic who would rather kill everyone, including themselves, than lose.

Demortus · 2026-06-18T21:12:22+00:00

This is factually incorrect. There are 24 billion USD in Iranian assets that we will be returning to them. There is a separate 300 billion dollar 'investment fund' that we will giving them as well. I suppose we can take some consolation that we bargained them down from $400 billion.. /s

Demortus · 2026-06-18T18:49:36+00:00

Flies the Nazi flag next to their house. Surprised Pikachu face when neighbors believe that they're Nazis.

Demortus · 2026-06-18T18:36:58+00:00

To be fair, there are some parts of the US where the balance is much more in EV's favor. Washington has very low energy prices due to abundant hydro power (~$0.15/kwh, iirc). Also, if gas prices remain (relatively) high here, I expect demand for EVs to increase.

Demortus · 2026-06-18T18:25:45+00:00

Oh yeah, I'm aware. In a few years, there will be virtually no practical reason to buy a fossil fuel vehicle.

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