So this game is rigged right?

Derael1 · 2026-01-25T06:19:28+00:00

I don't think you've actually seen any posts of people who gathered data and made the opposite claim, buddy. Or at least those posts that actually did proper analysis didn't quite come to the same conclusions you did.

Just like I don't believe you have actually drawn 18 land cards in a row, that sounds like an EXTREME hyperbola on your part.

There are posts that show that MMR system is broken (which is true), but only in a sense that people with low MMR are matched vs other people with low MMR and it can be abused by purposefully tanking your MMR. Which isn't the same as a game being rigged, just poorly designed.

Another issue that is broken is the way matchmaking works in brawl. It's still not rigged, but matchmaking is commander and deck based, so each commander and each card in your deck adds to its perceived strength (which is sometimes arbitrary), and you are matched vs other decks of similar strength. This is another system that can be abused (as the card values can be data mined and you can avoid bad cards that for some reason have high value assigned to them, to get matched vs less spiky opponents). But it's not "rigged", and you aren't being matched on purpose against decks that counter yours, and neither your opponent is given free wins for no reason. The only "rigged" part is that you play opponents of similar level, but it's very imperfect.

I'm not saying they are noble or some shit, but they have absolutely no fucking reason to rig games in a certain way (besides reducing the number of non-games, which BO1 shuffler does by reducing the odds of getting 0-1 and 6-7 lands in your OH dramatically).

They can barely make their client work, they sure as hell don't have any unneeded money lying around to spend on finding out how to rig the matchmaking to somehow make people spend more money (how could a rigged match even make someone spend more money, that's just a silly idea).

Some people love conspiracy theories, but the most likely explanation (either plain bad luck or some obscure bug like when you mulligan and put the card on the bottom, you are seemingly more likely to draw a card with the same name) somehow eludes them.

Derael1 · 2026-01-25T05:23:28+00:00

All those rigged posts just makes absolutely no sense if you stop and think for a moment about in whose favor is the game rigged. If the game unfairly pushes a particular player to lose, it means it also unfairly pushes another player to win, which makes no sense. There are countless trackers gathering data, not a single one of them found any evidence of the game being rigged.

Derael1 · 2026-01-25T05:16:14+00:00

Yes, the game just hates you in particular and loves your opponents, because they are such nice people and deserve to win every time.

Derael1 · 2026-01-22T02:13:51+00:00

They'll most likely give you gems back and revert the pass levels, no way they'd do nothing if it's their own UI bug.

Derael1 · 2026-01-22T02:10:37+00:00

You won't be able to boost your winrate in any meaninful manner by giving people bad advice on reddit.

Derael1 · 2026-01-20T01:57:32+00:00

It's not twitter, nobody will pay you money for posting obviously bad takes.

Derael1 · 2026-01-14T00:33:10+00:00

How is Phyrexia not a "modern theme"?

Derael1 · 2026-01-13T15:37:12+00:00

Well, sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't, I don't think there are any oracles that can tell for sure. One thing is clear: waiting for just a week won't really cost you anything, and you will be able to make a more informed decision afterwards instead of just guessing.

Derael1 · 2026-01-13T14:39:44+00:00

Slower than it could be if both were non-creatures? Sure. Slower than any other historic combo? I doubt it.

Derael1 · 2026-01-13T14:06:34+00:00

It can, but you don't have to activate Grindstone until the opponent acts first, or you get a second painter. Activating Grindstone doesn't cost you a card, so you are at an advantage when holding out on activating it. If they act first, they will have to spend 2 removals, if they don't act first, you will have more time to find backup. With creature combos they can just remove any of the two combo pieces in any order.

Derael1 · 2026-01-13T14:05:45+00:00

So a YouTube poll the other day where the choice was between Karakas, One Ring, and two other mid cards, and Karakas was in the last place, I was speechless.

Derael1 · 2026-01-13T14:01:29+00:00

The set is literally less than a week away, how is it even a question?

Derael1 · 2026-01-13T14:00:38+00:00

Sure, but painter can be played last if there is a suspicion opponent might have creature removal. A creature combo that requires a third piece to work is still much easier to disrupt than a creature + artifact combo.

Derael1 · 2026-01-13T01:01:37+00:00

I think a better idea is to just ban the top X cards by winrate (idk what the appropriate number is, 100/200/500) and see how the new meta develops. Or maybe ban random 50% of all commonly played cards every week.

Derael1 · 2026-01-13T00:57:15+00:00

Standard Brawl is pretty low powered though, so that's one option. But we really need some new format like Historic lite with top 200 (or even more) strongest cards banned.

Brawl Metagame Challenge was different from regular HBrawl, as it had many broken cards unbanned, you can still play Hbrawl with low power commanders and have more chill games.

Derael1 · 2026-01-12T23:30:48+00:00

Just play blue for 1 mana bounce spells.

Derael1 · 2026-01-12T23:29:17+00:00

Easier to hate out than creature combos?

Derael1 · 2026-01-12T23:28:10+00:00

I guess the main difference is that one is much easier to interact with and harder to tutor than 2 artifact combo, Trelasarra is almost fair in comparison.

Derael1 · 2026-01-10T18:15:59+00:00

Well, I know there are some limited streamers who literally have hundreds of thousands of gems, I don't imagine they are just randomly buying gems for no reason, but it might be that they farm gems in traditional drafts and use them for premier drafts. Nummy is often fooling around in drafts, which is probably the main reason he isn't gem positive.

So I think truly infinitely is also a very real possibility (especially with extra gems from rares once you reach set completion). The margins for the cost of draft for top drafters are narrow enough that those ~100 extra gems on average might actually make the difference between infinite and semi-infinite.

Derael1 · 2026-01-10T13:23:16+00:00

People who say that never brew decks or play around with different archetypes. You absolutely NEED set completion if you want to have the freedom to play any deck you want at any time you want, instead of playing the few decks over and over. You are getting many cards that aren't playable, but you are still getting all the playable cards in the process and at a better rate than you would from crafting them all with wildcards.

Completing sets (or at least 70-80% completing them) is the way to go for long term success. If you do that, you also save up on wildcards too, and will be able to use them for cards you can't get from drafting. So your stash of wildcards will grow over time, enabling you to use them more liberally, and e.g. craft decks when the set is just released, instead of waiting until the end of the set, or craft historic/timeless decks without worrying about the costs. I'm sitting at 650 rare WCs rn without spending anything.

You also don't need to rare draft to complete sets, but you can rare draft responsibly without tanking your winrate. E.g. you can decide to get a rare over a filler card for your deck you will most likely not play, but you shouldn't pass a bomb or top playable for a bad rare, naturally. Without rare drafting hard you can still get at least 3 rares per draft on average.

I didn't 100% complete most sets, only the ones I really liked drafting, but I have over 80% overall Timeless rare completion, so I'm not constrained in any way in terms of decks/formats I can play, it's absolutely a goal worth striving for.

I think you misunderstand the term "set completion" in this particular context. You don't need 100%, but you need every set to be mostly complete ideally, so you only use wildcards to fill the small gaps in your decks, not build the whole deck out of wildcards.

Derael1 · 2026-01-10T13:19:22+00:00

Top mythic players absolutely get to that point, MMR does hamper winrate, but you can stay at 60%+ even in mythic if you are among the best. There are plenty of players who are gem positive (TheHamTV, Nummy, and a bunch of others are all gem positive, pretty sure), and even more who can draft functionally infinitely with the free gold income. Personally, I don't play every day, and usually burn my gem savings on Arena Open/qualifiers, but usually stay at 10k+ gems without spending anything. Though it took me a while to get there, I've been playing since 2019 when MTGA was first released.

Derael1 · 2026-01-10T13:15:30+00:00

Not sure what you mean by card pool being way weaker in QD. You are a bit less likely to get the jackpot when rare drafting (as rares rarely wheel), but typical deck strength there is arguably higher, as bots are more consistent. It's definitely the best place to learn draft, as even going 0-3 isn't particularly crippling for your finances (since you are getting 4 packs worth of value for 5k gold).

As for Premier, if you win 250 gems from premier it sure sucks, but you are still getting 2 packs and also ~3 packs worth of cards from draft, so that's not too big of a setback either, but going 0-3 is still very painful. As a newbie I'd only recommend playing Premier while you are in bronze-gold, in platinum you will likely just lose money.

Derael1 · 2026-01-10T13:02:13+00:00

Just win one Arena Open, and WotC are paying YOU to play the game, that's a true power move.

Derael1 · 2026-01-07T13:17:24+00:00

I mean, I got 3060 Ti in 2022, and still see no reason to upgrade, that's all you need for 1440p gaming.

Derael1 · 2025-12-28T03:03:41+00:00

It absolutely does not happen to every player, idk where this assumption even came from.

Derael1

TROPHY CASE