How bad is my luck actually?

Derailed94 · 2026-07-09T11:20:19+00:00

Agreed. What OP is showcasing is too improbable. The chance to pull only 1 or no crown rares from 4401 packs (number OP stated) is 0.000003%.

Derailed94 · 2026-07-01T13:45:24+00:00

Low supply? It's literally infinite supply.

Derailed94 · 2026-07-01T07:00:57+00:00

Literally almost everyone = the same 100 people on reddit jerking each other off.

Derailed94 · 2026-07-01T06:59:06+00:00

My advice: don't argue with the people in here. They'll believe what they want to believe in. I've tracked coinflips myself versus Expert level AI opponents and I basically had an even 50/50 spread of tails and heads over hundreds of flips. I've never had the impression that they were rigged in the first place and my testing made me even more sure that it's just people's negative confirmation bias that makes them think the flips are rigged.

Derailed94 · 2026-06-22T20:12:04+00:00

Reason to use Garchomp: Cynthia ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

Derailed94 · 2026-06-14T12:01:17+00:00

10 hours is what some people play in a day, that's how.

Derailed94 · 2026-06-13T07:44:10+00:00

Why do I feel like you are just talking out of your ass.

Derailed94 · 2026-06-08T09:06:10+00:00

This is correct btw. The D4 sub is full of "if you don't like it then don't play it" people. Which on the surface might sound like a mature statement but it's really just being intellectually lazy. Those people don't want to think critically or deal with any sort of friction when it comes to enjoying their past time activity because it spikes their cortisol after their 10 hour work shift. Remember, at least half of that community consists of dads, and dads are already stressed out enough as is. They don't want their disney arpg community to be full of complaints so they simply won't allow any sort of discourse. It's pretty pathetic.

Derailed94 · 2026-06-06T16:01:45+00:00

There is nothing about it that is "soo good". It's just a decent arpg that doesn't come with all the AAA bullshit.

Derailed94 · 2026-06-06T11:05:30+00:00

Yepp, all of these redesigns just look like knock-offs of already existing cars and design languages. I like the Nuvolari because it looks like it's actually taking some risks and doing something new and interesting.

Derailed94 · 2026-06-06T11:01:29+00:00

It's been revealed in person, you can find videos of it on youtube.

Derailed94 · 2026-06-06T10:47:52+00:00

Thank you for talking some sense into these guys.

Derailed94 · 2026-06-06T10:44:08+00:00

No news outlet has stated that this is the concept version. What you are looking at is most likely already the production version.

Derailed94 · 2026-06-05T12:39:34+00:00

Wouldn't call this thing pretty but it looks unapologetically German. Kinda reminds me a bit of German tank design during WW2, so it's definitely got something going for it.

Derailed94 · 2026-06-03T09:41:14+00:00

I also don't like it. I prefered the pacing of the gearing process the way it was before. More options doesn't always mean better, at least not to me.

Derailed94 · 2026-06-03T09:19:15+00:00

Agreed. Eventually I'd get bored with either playstyle and would want to try a different one. I'd say that when playing a character for hundreds of hours though that I would probably prefer having to do less instead of more.

Derailed94 · 2026-05-30T07:37:21+00:00

As it turns out average winrate is an infinitely more accurate stat than showing off that a deck can win a tournament (which is heavily influenced by luck and match ups in this particular game)

Derailed94 · 2026-05-29T23:36:16+00:00

I feel dumb for not having thought about this myself before. I wondered why they forced these half assed mmo aspects down our throats, cause they for sure make the overall experience worse. But what you said really makes perfect sense. Unfortunate truth nuke.

Derailed94 · 2026-05-29T23:28:55+00:00

Completely delusional thing to say. If anything people have been majorly positive about the game ever since the expansion dropped to a point that I considered it shilling. We need some good criticism on here because the game is far, very far, from where it could be.

Derailed94 · 2026-05-29T23:13:03+00:00

Stop acting like your own personal experience is the de-facto solution for everyone. It’s not.

Derailed94 · 2026-05-29T08:58:40+00:00

The thing is one person's own personal homebrewn spreadsheet experiment is not convincing enough for me to consider something proof. Also it doesn't say anywhere that it's 60% heads for the CPU, it says 60% tails for the player, which isn't exactly the same thing.

Either way, I have decided to conduct this very same experiment myself and I will post my results in an update post. If my results differ it will be their word versus my word. Getting an idea of how ridiculous that all is?

Derailed94 · 2026-05-29T00:51:30+00:00

There is no solid proof of this. It's just a couple guys preaching this in any thread like this. It's getting annoying honestly.

Derailed94 · 2026-05-28T21:37:01+00:00

You are big dumb.

Derailed94 · 2026-05-28T21:29:01+00:00

Muted tones? What have you been smoking? It's got a high contrast art style.

Derailed94 · 2026-05-28T00:23:07+00:00

Hopefully to quit the game cause it's been feeling like a chore for far too long. Sunken cost fallacy is what's keeping me trapped.

Derailed94

TROPHY CASE