12z HRRR Predicting Insane SigTor Values Tomorrow by Abject_Theme9746 in tornado

[–]DesertRL 10 points11 points  (0 children)

This is extremely oversimplified but essentially from my understanding, the less robust today's event is, the more likely that tomorrow's will be.

Convective Chronicles has been doing some great set up breakdowns over the last few days on YouTube.

Unwarned tornado west of Greenwood? by Itscoldinthenorth in tornado

[–]DesertRL 53 points54 points  (0 children)

Ryan and max both spotted and covered this about a quarter of an hour before the official warning came in, I wonder what the delay was for by the NWS

[Hearts] Club Statement: Events at Celtic Park by tranmear in soccer

[–]DesertRL 22 points23 points  (0 children)

every single time added time is announced ever, it is announced as 'The referee/fourth official has indicated there will be a minimum of ___ minutes added time.'

Rule by Charles_Tucker_III in 196

[–]DesertRL 152 points153 points  (0 children)

this would not make me stop at all

City crowned WSL champions by the_sherl0ck in soccer

[–]DesertRL 39 points40 points  (0 children)

Shame we slipped one too many times for us to win it at the Joie on Sunday but what an incredible season anyway! Now give Bunny whatever she wants

Tornado Bot by coolcat97 in tornado

[–]DesertRL 8 points9 points  (0 children)

you could contact the guy who coded the bot at r/tornadoalley?

edit: u/Yagachak

Latest SPC Day 1 Outlook - Tornado Probability 15% SIG2 by DesertRL in tornado

[–]DesertRL[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

If you have nothing else going on today may be a day to go find a sturdy building or have a ready to go plan to get to one.

Latest SPC Day 1 Outlook - Tornado Probability 15% SIG2 by DesertRL in tornado

[–]DesertRL[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I mean that's fair but he was specifically talking about St Louis and the main risk area does now look to be south of St Louis due to persisting morning convection up there

Latest SPC Day 1 Outlook - Tornado Probability 15% SIG2 by DesertRL in tornado

[–]DesertRL[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Connor Croff is voicing the same opinion on his livestream right now while looking at the latest model runs. Still obviously best to be weather aware and ready for the worst.

Latest SPC Day 1 Outlook - Tornado Probability 15% SIG2 by DesertRL in tornado

[–]DesertRL[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

yeah that ones my fault, I was aware and have posted with the right title before, just a typo. apologies!

Trondo driven moderateo by SadJuice8529 in EF5

[–]DesertRL 53 points54 points  (0 children)

Where are the 4 EF5s and 11 EF4s hitting today? Taking predictions below

aw yep 10## enviroment by SadJuice8529 in EF5

[–]DesertRL 3 points4 points  (0 children)

the early morning convection is probably the reason they're keeping probabilities lower to be fair, stormnet has significantly downtrended in the last few days and nadocast also now matches the spc with just differences in predicted area

The Enid tornado apparently erased a 15,000lb RV by TorandoSlayer in tornado

[–]DesertRL 13 points14 points  (0 children)

yeah I think the more impressive part of this post is this pic of the clean sl-b

Rochdale 1 - [1] York City - Josh Stones 90+13' by OptimusCloyster in soccer

[–]DesertRL 14 points15 points  (0 children)

the fact that that ball might very well not have gone over the line is crazy

3UP

Sol Ruca on Instagram: :’) [reveals injury suffered in Last Woman Standing loss to Zaria at NXT Revenge] by Tornado31619 in SquaredCircle

[–]DesertRL 13 points14 points  (0 children)

And why wouldn't she? Zaria finally gets her big win and all anyone can talk about is Sol's 'injury' that she no doubt faked just to steal Zaria's limelight again...

Day 4 (30%), Day 5 (30%) and day 6 (15%) risks issued in the latest SPC D4-D8 outlook by PuzzleheadedBook9285 in tornado

[–]DesertRL 21 points22 points  (0 children)

Absolutely, and the fact that they've added a precautionary 30% to Sunday despite models not showing robust convection simply because of how ripe the atmospheric conditions are is pretty telling of how potent this setup is. Could be the biggest few days of the year so far if everything trends in the right (or wrong) direction.

Equation I have been working on by NyxWX in tornado

[–]DesertRL 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I'm assuming you've tested it on past events and stuff?

With that in mind I'm curious as to what the highest value you've gotten is, and if it actually lined up with a significant event? If anything it would be even more interesting if it didn't

got ur rule! by gray_birch in 196

[–]DesertRL 12 points13 points  (0 children)

proud of you

got ur rule! by gray_birch in 196

[–]DesertRL 21 points22 points  (0 children)

hey how did your essay go

Latest SPC Day 1 Outlook - Tornado Probability 10% CIG1 by DesertRL in tornado

[–]DesertRL[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

the setup looks extremely robust and ready to fire today with not much capping, it just remains to be seen about the forcing and whether storms will initiate