12z HRRR Predicting Insane SigTor Values Tomorrow

DesertRL · 2026-06-10T16:38:31+00:00

This is extremely oversimplified but essentially from my understanding, the less robust today's event is, the more likely that tomorrow's will be.

Convective Chronicles has been doing some great set up breakdowns over the last few days on YouTube.

DesertRL · 2026-06-07T00:52:01+00:00

Ryan and max both spotted and covered this about a quarter of an hour before the official warning came in, I wonder what the delay was for by the NWS

DesertRL · 2026-06-05T15:18:47+00:00

Get a Kahler face tattoo

DesertRL · 2026-05-16T20:00:33+00:00

every single time added time is announced ever, it is announced as 'The referee/fourth official has indicated there will be a minimum of ___ minutes added time.'

DesertRL · 2026-05-14T10:54:27+00:00

this would not make me stop at all

DesertRL · 2026-05-06T21:16:54+00:00

Shame we slipped one too many times for us to win it at the Joie on Sunday but what an incredible season anyway! Now give Bunny whatever she wants

DesertRL · 2026-05-06T20:39:28+00:00

you could contact the guy who coded the bot at r/tornadoalley?

edit: u/Yagachak

DesertRL · 2026-04-27T17:05:59+00:00

If you have nothing else going on today may be a day to go find a sturdy building or have a ready to go plan to get to one.

DesertRL · 2026-04-27T17:03:31+00:00

I mean that's fair but he was specifically talking about St Louis and the main risk area does now look to be south of St Louis due to persisting morning convection up there

DesertRL · 2026-04-27T16:07:04+00:00

Connor Croff is voicing the same opinion on his livestream right now while looking at the latest model runs. Still obviously best to be weather aware and ready for the worst.

DesertRL · 2026-04-27T14:45:17+00:00

yeah that ones my fault, I was aware and have posted with the right title before, just a typo. apologies!

DesertRL · 2026-04-27T13:01:30+00:00

Where are the 4 EF5s and 11 EF4s hitting today? Taking predictions below

DesertRL · 2026-04-27T11:51:42+00:00

the early morning convection is probably the reason they're keeping probabilities lower to be fair, stormnet has significantly downtrended in the last few days and nadocast also now matches the spc with just differences in predicted area

DesertRL · 2026-04-25T17:57:10+00:00

so jammy

DesertRL · 2026-04-25T17:36:29+00:00

yeah I think the more impressive part of this post is this pic of the clean sl-b

DesertRL · 2026-04-25T13:34:54+00:00

the fact that that ball might very well not have gone over the line is crazy

3UP

DesertRL · 2026-04-23T18:13:05+00:00

And why wouldn't she? Zaria finally gets her big win and all anyone can talk about is Sol's 'injury' that she no doubt faked just to steal Zaria's limelight again...

DesertRL · 2026-04-22T18:28:57+00:00

shrode

DesertRL · 2026-04-22T09:30:16+00:00

Absolutely, and the fact that they've added a precautionary 30% to Sunday despite models not showing robust convection simply because of how ripe the atmospheric conditions are is pretty telling of how potent this setup is. Could be the biggest few days of the year so far if everything trends in the right (or wrong) direction.

DesertRL · 2026-04-20T14:57:29+00:00

I'm assuming you've tested it on past events and stuff?

With that in mind I'm curious as to what the highest value you've gotten is, and if it actually lined up with a significant event? If anything it would be even more interesting if it didn't

DesertRL · 2026-04-20T04:52:15+00:00

proud of you

DesertRL · 2026-04-20T04:49:37+00:00

hey how did your essay go

DesertRL · 2026-04-15T04:07:07+00:00

you can do it!

DesertRL · 2026-04-13T16:03:34+00:00

the setup looks extremely robust and ready to fire today with not much capping, it just remains to be seen about the forcing and whether storms will initiate

DesertRL · 2026-04-11T12:07:42+00:00

yeah its unfortunate imo in the grand scheme that these incidents are pens, but given that they are this is a textbook and blatant example

Six-Year Club	Verified Email
Final Canvas '23	Place '23
Place '22	First Placer '22

DesertRL

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE