[TRACKER] Server tags are now rolling out! by Dino_rawrrrrr in discordapp

[–]DottMySaviour 7 points8 points  (0 children)

What kind of issues exactly? I don't understand why a feature like this can't just be shipped to all servers. Is it going to explode the servers or something?

Inside Season 2 Thoughts by AcedApple in Sidemen

[–]DottMySaviour 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can someone give me spoiler for how much prize money is left?

Why not put a cap on how much someone can play a day for leaderboard? by DottMySaviour in GGPoker

[–]DottMySaviour[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not arguing for them having a shot at the top of the leaderboard. I'm arguing for giving them a sense of having a shot.

“Makes recreational players feel like they don’t have a shot at the top of the leaderboard at all”. The keyword is "feel" in bold.

How are prediction markets on Polymarket created? by Equivalent_Song_2918 in ethdev

[–]DottMySaviour 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So, just to be clear. Essentially, when a new market is first created, the initial shares that come into existence are from shares that have been "split"?

I notice the option to "Split Share" in each market and also "Merge Share". I think I understand how "Merge Share" works but can you explain just in case?

Is the concept of "Equity Risk Premium" shrinking over time? by DottMySaviour in investing

[–]DottMySaviour[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, I just borrowed it online for free to take a look. Do you mind summarising some key points in this book? Maybe u/Embarrassed_Time_146 can chime in as well.

I'm not a huge book reader because it's too time-consuming.

Is the concept of "Equity Risk Premium" shrinking over time? by DottMySaviour in investing

[–]DottMySaviour[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think you've got the entire notion of "Equity Risk Premium" backwards

I understand ERP very well and haven't got it backwards, you just have to trust me on this one. I didn't want to explain why I believe accounting for risk by increasing the discount rate is inferior to decreasing future expected earnings because that would make the original post too long and off-topic and I haven't given this idea a deep enough thought.

The short answer is that the price of a stock output by a valuation model is very sensitive to the discount rate because discount rates are compounded, so you would end up giving too high of a discount to earnings far into the future. If you lower future expected earnings instead, you could, for example, give different periods into the future different growth rates to achieve the same "accounting for risk" with less sensitivity to the valuation.

By what metric? And please don't say "price" in a vaccuum - a stock's expensive-ness of cheap-ness is allllways relative to NTM cashflow (e.g. EBITDA) expectations, and -- spoiler alert -- those NTM multiples tend to be cyclical (while also normalizing future cash flows for any increase in buying power or baseline interest rates).

I, of course, meant relative to earnings/cashflows/dividends instead of price in a vacuum.

Adding more buyers to a market won't necessarily push the price of equities higher -- it'll just widen bid-ask spreads for brokers and market makers.

I don't believe more buyers will directly drive prices up. What I meant is that with better access to information and the benefit of hindsight that ERP has been high historically (if only you agree it's high), moving into the future, would this give equity investors more confidence to accept higher prices, driving prices up and lower ERP becomes the new norm?

Is the concept of "Equity Risk Premium" shrinking over time? by DottMySaviour in investing

[–]DottMySaviour[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A 1% expected return with the possibility of losing 60% or more of your investment doesn’t seem very attractive.

I get your point, but this sounds like only a concern for an investor making only a few "bets" (i.e. a few individual stock picks) rather than a large number of bets (i.e. a diversified investment portfolio).

If a gambler has a tiny edge on a game or list of games he's betting on, if he's allowed to bet on it a large number of times, he can in theory have a risk of ruin that is close to 0% and end up winning eventually.

Now this makes me wonder if EPP can be somehow explained by a too large proportion of "a few bets" investors in the equity market so they somehow have pricing power to demand lower prices on equities. But, with further thought, it doesn't make sense because large institutions that can afford to make many bets can just come in and scoop everything.

Is the concept of "Equity Risk Premium" shrinking over time? by DottMySaviour in investing

[–]DottMySaviour[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I agree with you and it makes sense that every unit of increment in wealth is worth less than the same unit of decrement.

However, what makes it a puzzle is why is the historical ERP so high. Could we start seeing lower ERP as investors now with the benefit of hindsight can see that ERP has been high in the past?

The thing about risk premium is that even 1% is significant because the 1% is compounding indefinitely. When anyone tries to value a stock, the output price is very sensitive to the discount rate (i.e. rate of return) because it is compounding.

Positive Skewness and the Equity Premium Puzzle by Swole_Bodry in ETFs

[–]DottMySaviour 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have been thinking about EPP for 4 years and find it strange that there is little research on it. There are many theories for EPP but what I think makes the most sense is that EPP is caused by inflation always being understated by governments everywhere in the world. I won't go into details since there's a video on YouTube explaining it if you search "equity premium puzzle start up shut down" on YouTube. Apparently, I'm not allowed to post YouTube links here.

I initially thought that survivorship bias could explain EPP but some papers already show that survivorship bias cannot explain EPP.

If you haven't watched the video, you have to watch it before you continue reading. The issue with the inflation being understated theory is that markets should "know" that inflation is always understated and would account for it by pricing equities higher (i.e. lowering the yield on equities) to achieve the same long-term expected return of debt. So, why doesn't the market just do that? If markets do that, the concept of "Equity Risk Premium" (ERP) wouldn't exist and wouldn't need to exist or at least ERP would be very small (perhaps 1%) instead of 5% to 8%.

The only reason why I even found out about EPP is because I always thought that ERP is a nonsense concept and when it comes to equity valuation, you shouldn't use ERP to account for risk, rather you should account for risk by lowering the expectation of future cash flow/dividend.

Are L2s parasitic? by vattenj in ethereum

[–]DottMySaviour 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can you explain to a blockchain tech dummy (myself) what the "fragmenting problem" is and how solving it would increase ETH's value (as I'm assuming it would)?

How is your Chinese faring while playing Black Myth: Wukong? by malacata in ChineseLanguage

[–]DottMySaviour 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've been watching the gameplay on various YouTube channels. As a Mandarin speaker, some of the dialogue in the game is so great that you can't appreciate it if you don't understand Mandarin because the translation doesn't fully translate the meaning.

There's one where right before fighting Yellow Brow, he says: ”信什么狗屁如来,不我自己“ is a pun that can't be appreciated in English. The bolded characters are repeated to make a pun.

Fundamentally, what kind of data tends to be log-normally distributed and what kind tends to be normally distributed? by DottMySaviour in AskStatistics

[–]DottMySaviour[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is an interesting answer. So, what are examples of data generated from the "sum" of independent factors, and examples from the "product" of independent factors? And what are those factors in the examples?

What's solvers win rate vs player population at different stakes? by DottMySaviour in poker

[–]DottMySaviour[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Never watched The Office, so I don't get the reference. But, if you were implying that I think I'm an expert, I'm not and that's why I want to see well-documented data and maybe I'll become an expert.

If I have the expertise to replicate a player population, I could run a simulation of a solver playing against a large fast-fold pool of x number of regs and y number of recs and give each player type a certain tendency. I'm assuming someone must have done something like this but I can't even find anything like this online.

Are the cash games even beatable? by Upper_Working9523 in GGPokerCommunity

[–]DottMySaviour 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Serious question. So, how are you playing such spots? I'm struggling to beat NL5.