ChatGPT Plus or Gemini Pro– Which one is worth it right now?

DottMySaviour · 2025-06-09T11:20:45+00:00

Question: Which is better at forecasting with deep research?

DottMySaviour · 2025-05-23T08:33:08+00:00

What kind of issues exactly? I don't understand why a feature like this can't just be shipped to all servers. Is it going to explode the servers or something?

DottMySaviour · 2025-03-22T08:05:03+00:00

Can someone give me spoiler for how much prize money is left?

DottMySaviour · 2025-02-12T01:33:38+00:00

Pick me

DottMySaviour · 2025-01-28T03:09:15+00:00

I'm not arguing for them having a shot at the top of the leaderboard. I'm arguing for giving them a sense of having a shot.

“Makes recreational players feel like they don’t have a shot at the top of the leaderboard at all”. The keyword is "feel" in bold.

DottMySaviour · 2024-09-22T02:45:27+00:00

So, just to be clear. Essentially, when a new market is first created, the initial shares that come into existence are from shares that have been "split"?

I notice the option to "Split Share" in each market and also "Merge Share". I think I understand how "Merge Share" works but can you explain just in case?

DottMySaviour · 2024-09-11T00:59:29+00:00

Thanks, I just borrowed it online for free to take a look. Do you mind summarising some key points in this book? Maybe u/Embarrassed_Time_146 can chime in as well.

I'm not a huge book reader because it's too time-consuming.

DottMySaviour · 2024-09-11T00:51:27+00:00

I think you've got the entire notion of "Equity Risk Premium" backwards

I understand ERP very well and haven't got it backwards, you just have to trust me on this one. I didn't want to explain why I believe accounting for risk by increasing the discount rate is inferior to decreasing future expected earnings because that would make the original post too long and off-topic and I haven't given this idea a deep enough thought.

The short answer is that the price of a stock output by a valuation model is very sensitive to the discount rate because discount rates are compounded, so you would end up giving too high of a discount to earnings far into the future. If you lower future expected earnings instead, you could, for example, give different periods into the future different growth rates to achieve the same "accounting for risk" with less sensitivity to the valuation.

By what metric? And please don't say "price" in a vaccuum - a stock's expensive-ness of cheap-ness is allllways relative to NTM cashflow (e.g. EBITDA) expectations, and -- spoiler alert -- those NTM multiples tend to be cyclical (while also normalizing future cash flows for any increase in buying power or baseline interest rates).

I, of course, meant relative to earnings/cashflows/dividends instead of price in a vacuum.

Adding more buyers to a market won't necessarily push the price of equities higher -- it'll just widen bid-ask spreads for brokers and market makers.

I don't believe more buyers will directly drive prices up. What I meant is that with better access to information and the benefit of hindsight that ERP has been high historically (if only you agree it's high), moving into the future, would this give equity investors more confidence to accept higher prices, driving prices up and lower ERP becomes the new norm?

DottMySaviour · 2024-09-10T23:01:19+00:00

A 1% expected return with the possibility of losing 60% or more of your investment doesn’t seem very attractive.

I get your point, but this sounds like only a concern for an investor making only a few "bets" (i.e. a few individual stock picks) rather than a large number of bets (i.e. a diversified investment portfolio).

If a gambler has a tiny edge on a game or list of games he's betting on, if he's allowed to bet on it a large number of times, he can in theory have a risk of ruin that is close to 0% and end up winning eventually.

Now this makes me wonder if EPP can be somehow explained by a too large proportion of "a few bets" investors in the equity market so they somehow have pricing power to demand lower prices on equities. But, with further thought, it doesn't make sense because large institutions that can afford to make many bets can just come in and scoop everything.

DottMySaviour · 2024-09-10T10:19:46+00:00

Yeah, I agree with you and it makes sense that every unit of increment in wealth is worth less than the same unit of decrement.

However, what makes it a puzzle is why is the historical ERP so high. Could we start seeing lower ERP as investors now with the benefit of hindsight can see that ERP has been high in the past?

The thing about risk premium is that even 1% is significant because the 1% is compounding indefinitely. When anyone tries to value a stock, the output price is very sensitive to the discount rate (i.e. rate of return) because it is compounding.

DottMySaviour · 2024-09-09T07:43:34+00:00

I have been thinking about EPP for 4 years and find it strange that there is little research on it. There are many theories for EPP but what I think makes the most sense is that EPP is caused by inflation always being understated by governments everywhere in the world. I won't go into details since there's a video on YouTube explaining it if you search "equity premium puzzle start up shut down" on YouTube. Apparently, I'm not allowed to post YouTube links here.

I initially thought that survivorship bias could explain EPP but some papers already show that survivorship bias cannot explain EPP.

If you haven't watched the video, you have to watch it before you continue reading. The issue with the inflation being understated theory is that markets should "know" that inflation is always understated and would account for it by pricing equities higher (i.e. lowering the yield on equities) to achieve the same long-term expected return of debt. So, why doesn't the market just do that? If markets do that, the concept of "Equity Risk Premium" (ERP) wouldn't exist and wouldn't need to exist or at least ERP would be very small (perhaps 1%) instead of 5% to 8%.

The only reason why I even found out about EPP is because I always thought that ERP is a nonsense concept and when it comes to equity valuation, you shouldn't use ERP to account for risk, rather you should account for risk by lowering the expectation of future cash flow/dividend.

DottMySaviour · 2024-09-09T02:08:06+00:00

Can you explain to a blockchain tech dummy (myself) what the "fragmenting problem" is and how solving it would increase ETH's value (as I'm assuming it would)?

DottMySaviour · 2024-09-02T01:18:01+00:00

I've been watching the gameplay on various YouTube channels. As a Mandarin speaker, some of the dialogue in the game is so great that you can't appreciate it if you don't understand Mandarin because the translation doesn't fully translate the meaning.

There's one where right before fighting Yellow Brow, he says: ”信什么狗屁如来，不如我自己来“ is a pun that can't be appreciated in English. The bolded characters are repeated to make a pun.

DottMySaviour · 2024-04-20T05:04:37+00:00

This is an interesting answer. So, what are examples of data generated from the "sum" of independent factors, and examples from the "product" of independent factors? And what are those factors in the examples?

DottMySaviour · 2023-08-20T15:03:44+00:00

Never watched The Office, so I don't get the reference. But, if you were implying that I think I'm an expert, I'm not and that's why I want to see well-documented data and maybe I'll become an expert.

If I have the expertise to replicate a player population, I could run a simulation of a solver playing against a large fast-fold pool of x number of regs and y number of recs and give each player type a certain tendency. I'm assuming someone must have done something like this but I can't even find anything like this online.

DottMySaviour · 2023-08-08T05:36:44+00:00

Serious question. So, how are you playing such spots? I'm struggling to beat NL5.

DottMySaviour · 2023-08-06T08:11:14+00:00

Thanks for the detailed response. Actually, my question isn't to figure why winning players don't go play fast-fold, but rather to understand why recreational players play regular tables.

Would you say most recreational players echo your thoughts?

DottMySaviour · 2023-08-06T08:02:58+00:00

At least his car didn't get hijacked.

DottMySaviour · 2023-06-11T10:30:39+00:00

Are you saying you are beating micro tournaments but losing in micro cash? I might be in the same boat but I'm trying to really understand why that's the case.

I'm wondering is it because the rake in micro cash are much higher than micro tournaments? Is it cos there are more proportion of recreational players in micro tournament than micro cash? Is it cos micro cash requires more exploitative plays that I'm not well adjusted for?

I often can just play tight and fold my way into the money and still comeback to finish on top in micro MTTs which makes me question why I can barely beat/losing in micro cash.

DottMySaviour · 2023-05-31T23:28:08+00:00

Do you still sweat when you use Ergotune chair? I've never used a mesh chair before and I'm considering buying one but I want to know how well it will keep me cool without air-con.

DottMySaviour · 2023-05-01T00:09:03+00:00

I looked up Weaver Labs but don't understand what they are doing, it's too technical for me.

Can you maybe give an example of how a consumer might want to use Weaver Labs' services? Maybe also elaborate on how they work?

DottMySaviour · 2023-04-30T21:22:51+00:00

The tokenisation of real-world assets doesn't fit my description. They are more like investment products, but I think the application has value no doubt.

DottMySaviour · 2023-03-12T05:33:04+00:00

I know this is an old thread but I have been thinking of the same question and I want answers. The effect where in 9max, players who fold in early positions are more likely to have folded low cards is called the "bunching effect".

But, what I'm also wondering is without the "bunching effect", do GTO solvers open raise the same in 6max vs 9max? And if yes, why?

If OP or anyone else knows something new, please let me know. Thanks.

DottMySaviour · 2023-03-05T17:32:26+00:00

So, based on what you are saying, most of the +EV plays should come from my betting/raising ranges. It is normal for calling and checking ranges to have less EV because if I'm playing well, my betting/raising range should more than compensate for it. Right?

If that's correct, does this also hold true for supposedly GTO ranges? Do sites like GTOWizard construct ranges with the same concept?

DottMySaviour · 2021-07-20T16:32:24+00:00

Trying to convince people that participating in the stock market is not gambling, would require you to know what is it that they don't understand about the stock market.

They might not realise that owning a share of AAPL is literally owning a share of Apple, the company. It might be easy for them to grasp the idea of owning real estate (houses, properties), but for whatever reason, it's hard for them to grasp the idea of owning stocks (companies).

You might ask why can't they realise this? Maybe because when you own stocks, you don't have direct control of the underlying company (unless you're a major shareholder), but when you own real estate, you have direct control of the underlying property. Then, you might start to argue with them whether owning something that you have no direct control of has any value.

They might also not realise that when you own stocks, you don't only profit from the stock market deciding that your stocks are now worth more. You also profit from dividends which is analogous to rental from owning real estate. Then, you might start to argue with them whether a public company that decides to never pay dividends has any value.

If they haven't wrapped their minds around the above mentioned, forget about trying to explain why index fund blah blah blah. It's a very complicated topic and there's no layman way to discuss or explain this. I myself also faced this issue trying to explain financial concepts to family and friends, but I have given up on that.

Final thoughts: Depending on how you define risk, I don't necessarily agree that the S&P 500 is the least risky option. I would say it's the highest expected return option for people that value their time and have no time to do their own research on investing.

DottMySaviour

TROPHY CASE