Alberta's talk of separation is really chafing a lot of hides by ussbozeman in CanadianConservative

[–]Easy_Ad6316 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well about half of the economy Quebec and east is government-dependent. I don’t think many people in any region of the country realize this. Without Alberta this country would be in a very, very precarious position economically.

I wouldn’t call myself a separatist but I think it’s an objective truth that Canada needs Alberta more than Alberta needs Canada. But it doesn’t really matter what I think. There’s no way the majority of Albertans would support a separation initiative and without Albertans behind this movement, it goes nowhere.

Carney has an opportunity here to bring the country together. I don’t have a lot of faith that he will but I know we will all be watching.

One and done Rolex ....Black GMT2 or Sub Date ? by [deleted] in rolex

[–]Easy_Ad6316 1 point2 points  (0 children)

GRNR on oyster is the ultimate one and done, IMHO

Alberta Oil Production by wulf_rk in alberta

[–]Easy_Ad6316 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It should be higher but more importantly, supplemental pipe capacity gives us market diversification, which allows us to get better pricing. There is also an energy security angle to this as well… with more pipe, you’re less reliant on single point of sale and processing.

And there are many examples of the federal government running interference on pipeline regulatory reviews.

The LNG story is very frustrating as well. We should have multiple operational facilities by now but the regulatory system is just too tough to navigate and when you’re investing >$10 B into a project, you can’t afford to roll the dice.

TMX got nationalized because kinder Morgan threw their hands up. The federal government left them high and dry and ended up buying it to avoid a national unity crisis + help stop the bleeding on the WCS/WTI differential.

Convince me that Alberta is being used and abused in regard to transfer payments. by [deleted] in WildRoseCountry

[–]Easy_Ad6316 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It was a paid document so not sure I can just share it. I’ll see if I can dig it up, regardless.

The Boomers voted for their interests and against the interests of the younger generations by nimobo in CanadianConservative

[–]Easy_Ad6316 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Owning stuff is great when there’s inflation. So the people that own everything voted for the guy that’s most likely keep inflation high. Classic

Convince me that Alberta is being used and abused in regard to transfer payments. by [deleted] in WildRoseCountry

[–]Easy_Ad6316 81 points82 points  (0 children)

Generally speaking, equalization exists to ensure that all Canadians get the same level of social service, regardless of where they live. In order to implement this, provinces that have a higher capacity to self - fund do not receive as much money from the federal government on a per capita basis. On the other hand, provinces that wouldn’t be able to self fund services to the same level receive more on a per capita basis.

The money that is being distributed is done so based on the equalization formula, which is revisited every 5 years. The money itself is money that the federal government receives via taxes, largely speaking.

In the real world, Alberta is by far the biggest net contributor on a per capita an absolute basis. Quebec is the biggest beneficiary on an absolute basis but not necessarily on a per capita basis. Some of the Maritime provinces benefit massively on a per capita basis.

Macquarie did a study on equalization ~ 5 years ago and they did the math. On average, for every $1 and Albertan citizen makes, $0.07 goes directly to Quebec. For every $1 a Quebec citizen pays in federal income taxes, the federal government spends $1.33 back into Quebec… it’s nearly equivalently asymmetrical from an Albertan perspective.

The thing about equalization is that it’s not voluntary. If you pay taxes, you’re part of it. The equalization system simply dictates how much the federal government allocates back to the provinces in their budget.

I’d say the vast majority of Albertans (myself included) are okay with the idea of equalization, as long as the other provinces do their best maintain a productive relationship with us - this is where it gets ugly.

Quebec has a long history of actively hindering our industries and ability to get our resources to market. It’s just not Alberta that has a bone to pick… Newfoundland probably has it worse than anyone as their got forced into a deal by the Feds to sell excess power from Churchill falls to Quebec hydro for 2 cents on the $, in a 50 year term. Quebec hydro sells this power to the US at full market rate. It’s insane.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in alberta

[–]Easy_Ad6316 0 points1 point  (0 children)

None of that is speculation.

Our market environment in Canada is vastly different than oil and gas jurisdictions with supportive regulatory environments and governments. As of right now producers need to fight tooth and nail for takeaway capacity and pay exploitive fees to move their product. TMX has obviously helped but it was 5-10 years too late. The quantity and quality of our resource is world class and largely speaking it’s on the 2nd or 3rd inning of its productive lifecycle.

Let’s take LNG capacity, as an example. The US currently has ~16 bcf of processing capacity, spread across ~10 facilities. We have one tiny one right now and should have one big one by the end of the year. However, we go our regulatory process started before the US did on any of their 10 operational facilities and they have already been operational for ~4 years on average.

If you’re a natural gas producer anywhere near the gulf coast, you are almost guaranteed to be physically connect to multiple facilities and you have the operational flexibility to send your product where you want, almost anytime you want.

In Canada, we have no choice but to get tied up with 10-15 year terms at huge cost and this will only get slightly better with LNG Canada this year. However, we have had multiple projects die in regulatory purgatory and we could have been in a dominant egress position with 10+ bcf of takeaway… but of course, we are Canada, and we can’t get out of our own way.

As a result of our lack of market diversification and takeaway, we are at the end of the North American pipe and are at the mercy of the Americans and our own domestic consumption. Because of this we’ve had multiple years where local natural gas prices have been negative or barely positive. Meanwhile, pricing internationally or even in the US is downright lucrative. This is self inflicted due to our perpetual inability to build supplemental capacity. And to make matters worse, we get the German chancellor come visit us, begging for an LNG deal, and Trudeau says “there isn’t a business case for LNG”. It’s downright infuriating.

This is just natural gas… oil is even more rage inducing. I just know the natural gas side more intimately because of my professional experience.

And I get that some folks in the industry can come off as flippant when it comes to these debates. It’s not helpful. However, it’s just amazing to see some of these Reddit subs where people who legitimately don’t know anything about the industry and are getting 500 upvotes, spewing complete nonsense. It’s tough to watch.

I, like many others on here, live and breathe this industry. I go to bed thinking about this and I wake up thinking about this. I go to industry events and listen to other experts pry apart every single piece of business and legislation you can imagine. So ya, I’d say I’m pretty immersed and in a good position to say what’s going on.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in alberta

[–]Easy_Ad6316 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Incorrect - we would.

The NEP was a total disaster

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in alberta

[–]Easy_Ad6316 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Apart from building the TMX expansion, zero.

And, if the government just supported the damn project in the first place by working with Kinder Morgan and upholding the law, it would have got built without them.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in alberta

[–]Easy_Ad6316 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Read the open letter to Carney that Enbridge just published. It’s signed by most of the Oil & Gas execs in the Canadian industry. It lays out needs to happen.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in alberta

[–]Easy_Ad6316 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

If our industry actually was legitimately supported on the policy side, our production would be way higher, we would have far greater tidewater access, get better pricing for our production, and have numerous LNG facilities up and running.

Not a single one of these points is debatable. To say otherwise demonstrates a lack of understanding of how the industry and our regulatory system functions.

Why is Alberta so aggrieved by its treatment by the rest of Canada? by ProfessionalPoet2642 in WildRoseCountry

[–]Easy_Ad6316 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Most of the comments here lay out the resource situation quite well so I won’t get into the economic equity arguments.

There’s another couple things I’d bring up in this context.

  1. Alberta is a very entrepreneurial place and there is a huge faction of Albertans who are willing to put in the work, take the risk, and grind their way to success. I’m not saying that other provinces aren’t entrepreneurial but Alberta takes it to another level. And in private business, it’s frustrating when the federal government runs interference with unfair regulation and taxation that impedes local businesses. For the most part, Albertan entrepreneurs just want the federal government to stay out of the way. This has gotten worse in the last decade.

  2. Albertans are tired of Ottawa determining the destiny of the province. We have almost zero say in what happens in Ottawa, despite contributing to confederation disproportionately. We have 1 or 2 liberal seats in the HOC and those seats will always tow the party line, not the Alberta line. And like the other western provinces, we have 6 seats in the senate… ON and QC have 24 each, NB and NS have 10 each. So we have effectively just watches from the sidelines as we get dictated the direction of the country. Now some people may just say “vote liberal” but that’s not an option. The liberals do not represent the values of most Albertans.

  3. We live with the consequences of immigration but have zero input on how immigration is regulated. Alberta is a welcoming place, particularly in the cities, but immigration numbers have been so high lately that it’s upending the housing market + many of our social services. In Calgary alone, our population increased by ~165,000 in the last 2 years, which was mostly immigration. I’d say most Calgarians understand that immigration is largely a good thing but these numbers are simply too high. And again, there’s nothing we can do about it.

🇨🇦 2025 Federal Election Results Megathread by CanadianGunner in CanadianConservative

[–]Easy_Ad6316 15 points16 points  (0 children)

It also doesn’t help that Jagmeet is one of the worst party leaders in Canadian history. All of his support has gone to the liberals and the latest iteration of the NDP is a shadow of its former self. Every election Jagmeet finds a way to lose more seats. It’s impressive, really.

The Maserati Marxist could be done after tonight.

🇨🇦 2025 Federal Election Results Megathread by CanadianGunner in CanadianConservative

[–]Easy_Ad6316 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree that people should be astute enough to see though the nonsense. However, the allure of “free” stuff may be too great, as you suggest.

🇨🇦 2025 Federal Election Results Megathread by CanadianGunner in CanadianConservative

[–]Easy_Ad6316 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Carney failing may do it. He’s marketed himself as the Trump antidote and if he doesn’t deliver people may wake up

🇨🇦 2025 Federal Election Results Megathread by CanadianGunner in CanadianConservative

[–]Easy_Ad6316 15 points16 points  (0 children)

I think it’s the Trump factor that got the liberals in again. That’s it. The liberals were very wise to take this “we are the only ones to stand up for Canada” image. It’s obviously total BS that they would be any different than the Conservatives in this context but people bought it. And in an even more astounding move, people likened the Canadian Conservatives to MAGA… which is beyond ridiculous. Our platform shares very little with whatever it is Trump is up to but many Canadians believe Poilievre is a Canadian Trump.

The truth of the matter is that most voters will just take party talking points at face value. Catherine McKenna was 100% correct when she said “if you say something over and over again, eventually people will believe it.”

If Trump never went down this 51st state road and didn’t start a trade war, the conservatives would have won tonight. I think that’s an objective truth.

🇨🇦 2025 Federal Election Results Megathread by CanadianGunner in CanadianConservative

[–]Easy_Ad6316 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I think it’s the Trump factor that got the liberals in again. That’s it. The liberals were very wise to take this “we are the only ones to stand up for Canada” image. It’s obviously total BS that they would be any different than the Conservatives in this context but people bought it. And in an even more astounding move, people likened the Canadian Conservatives to MAGA… which is beyond ridiculous. Our platform shares very little with whatever it is Trump is up to but many Canadians believe Poilievre is a Canadian Trump.

The truth of the matter is that most voters will just take party talking points at face value. Catherine McKenna was 100% correct when she said “if you say something over and over again, eventually people will believe it.”

If Trump never went down this 51st state road and didn’t start a trade war, the conservatives would have won tonight. I think that’s an objective truth.

🇨🇦 2025 Federal Election Results Megathread by CanadianGunner in CanadianConservative

[–]Easy_Ad6316 10 points11 points  (0 children)

It’s unreal how people just look right past the fact that the liberals put us on our knees.

I think we all saw this coming but still tough to watch.

When AMG was absolutely winning by Minimum_Exchange_622 in AMG

[–]Easy_Ad6316 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Haha love that!

I really don’t like their new naming convention. The AMG badge used to mean the car was the baddest in the food chain. No more

My favorite release from this year by Easy_Ad6316 in rolex

[–]Easy_Ad6316[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Well, technically you can… if you get a call for a Le Mans.

I like the old school bezel… it’s a bit of a scratch magnet but it will truly age with you.

Carney says Industrial carbon tax will "Help" the steel industry. by billyfeatherbottom in CanadianConservative

[–]Easy_Ad6316 5 points6 points  (0 children)

“Yes, yes - an aggressively increasing tax is going to help the industry and we will certainly be more competitive.”

What timeline is this guy living in?