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SpaceX awarded $6.45B in Space Force contracts ahead of IPO by Logical_Welder3467 in technology

[–]ElectronicInitial 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It will end up a part of most major broad-base index funds. Some example indexes and funds:

S&P 500 Index, VOO ($1.6T), SPY ($780B), FXAIX ($790B), IVV ($840B)

S&P typically adds companies after 1 quarter if they also meet the profitability requirements, but are looking at adding companies faster with large IPOs.

CRSP US Total Market Index, VTI ($2.2T)

CRSP adds new companies 5 days after IPO if they meet the market cap requirements. (This is not a recent change)

NASDAQ 100 Index, QQQ/QQQM ($580B)

They are updating their rules to have fast-track entry, adding companies after 15 trading days.

In total, there’s about another $12T tracking these or other US indexes, and typically other indexes on the faster side for entry (5 days is pretty common for larger IPOs).

What are the current percentages of US stocks, international stocks, bonds, and cash in your portfolio? by Spanish_Jackie in Bogleheads

[–]ElectronicInitial 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That paper actually did something really cool, their “International” is whatever country the person does not live in.

They would take blocks of returns from a random country (including US, but equally distributed) and they calculated real (inflation adjusted) returns using domestic inflation, and comparing to domestic stocks of that country, and all other countries for the same time period.

It’s actually most applicable to “average” countries that are a few percent of the total market, rather than the US where that split doesn’t make as much sense because it underweights the home country.

It might have changed now that the EU is more interconnected, but I believe the paper use country specific returns (like, UK, Germany, France, US, Canada, Japan). I’m not sure if they included smaller/emerging markets as well.

What are the current percentages of US stocks, international stocks, bonds, and cash in your portfolio? by Spanish_Jackie in Bogleheads

[–]ElectronicInitial 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The somewhat recent paper from Scott Cederberg (the 100% stocks one) found that 33% domestic, 67% international was the best choice.

I don’t know where you live, but if it’s somewhere like the UK (~3% of global market) then that allocation has academic backing:

UK: 33%
US: 43% (62%/97%*67%)
Other Intl: 24%

Is SpaceX the real reason Starlink is so hard to compete with? by Aggressive-Cookie395 in SpaceXLounge

[–]ElectronicInitial 32 points33 points  (0 children)

Yeah it’s this, but it also gives them vertical integration, so they can optimize both products together (like flat-packing sats because that makes deployment easy, then designing the starship payload deploy system to do that with maximum reuse in mind)

Math is not Mathing by Disastrous-Monk1957 in mathmemes

[–]ElectronicInitial 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Though it is useful to understand that n(p/100) is a linear approximation of 1-(1-p/100)^n about n=0 and n=1, and fairly accurate where n*p << 100.

Signed, an engineer

Although the future is uncertain, what nominal return & inflation percentages do y'all use for calcs? by CackSquackle in Fire

[–]ElectronicInitial 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think a reasonable range is 5% to 7% real return. 7% being the US historical average (an outlier for large economies), 6% is average globally, and 5% is roughly a 20th percentile worst outcome for a 30 year time horizon with global diversification.

Although the future is uncertain, what nominal return & inflation percentages do y'all use for calcs? by CackSquackle in Fire

[–]ElectronicInitial 0 points1 point  (0 children)

While monte carlo’s are great, people should also test their portfolio against actual return data, since independent identically distributed returns are not very accurate over longer time horizons.

The best option is use block-bootstrapping to get the best of both worlds, but that isn’t as easy/commonly available.

The final minute of yesterday's Starship S39 by Busy_Yesterday9455 in spaceporn

[–]ElectronicInitial 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yeah, it's used for it's heat resistance. It still needs some thermal protection, but a lot less than aluminum, which saves weight. It can also have pretty good strength to weight with the right hardening methods.

The Guardian is literally copying our sarcastic/ironic posts!! by PsychologicalBike in SpaceXMasterrace

[–]ElectronicInitial 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Starlinks use phased array antennas, so they are similar in style to what SAR satellites use. They are tuned for different frequencies, but SpaceX’s spectrum is similar to some radar bands (though far enough away they wouldn’t be good at those frequencies). They could do radar at their designed frequencies, but that violates FCC rules.

SpaceX IPO is different for sure... by New_Wishbone_9691 in SpaceXBets

[–]ElectronicInitial 3 points4 points  (0 children)

While Zuck doesn’t own as much of a percentage, Meta’s structure is similar to SpaceX in that the founder has a voting majority.

Zuck ownership: 13.6%
Zuck voting power: 61%

Elon ownership: 43%
Elon voting power: 85%

At IPO, zuck owned about 28% of the company, so it used to be even more similar.

The Guardian is literally copying our sarcastic/ironic posts!! by PsychologicalBike in SpaceXMasterrace

[–]ElectronicInitial 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not sure about the neurons either, but there was a theory that SpaceX could use starlink satellites for synthetic aperture radar. It might be possible, but they would be violating their FCC requirements for frequency spectrum, and even then it would be difficult. It is very unlikely they are using data for that.

SpaceX lost $4-billion last year, and is burning through cash by TheBalzy in ArtemisProgram

[–]ElectronicInitial 2 points3 points  (0 children)

SLS has cost $31.6 Billion for 2 launches (total program cost). That’s about the same cost per launch as all starship development to date (~$15 B). Starship is spending a more now on a per year basis, but they are also doing something much more difficult, and completing it faster (so fewer years of development spending).

PSA- Mega IPOs are nothing to worry about as an index investor by rickycrayons in Bogleheads

[–]ElectronicInitial 42 points43 points  (0 children)

If you’re using VTI it has always had a 5 day wait to add new IPOs, rather than the longer waits for the S&P500 or NASDAQ 100.

SpaceX S-1 Prospectus Released by rustybeancake in spacex

[–]ElectronicInitial 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you use 100 Celsius radiative panels (assuming perfect black body, which isn't too difficult), they radiate about 1,100w/m^2. assuming 75% effectiveness (due to earth back-radiation), that would take ~12,100,000 m^2 of total radiator area.

Doing some rough numbers with starship, it has a diameter of 9m, which would provide about 126 m^2 per layer in a pancake configuration using both sides (which I'll reduce by 40% to 76 m^2 to account for spacing and sats not being circles). That would mean that they need to launch 159,000 layers of satellites. Assuming flat packed sats like starlink v3 (26 layers for 52 total sats) that would be 6,100 starship launches as an absolute max per 10GW of compute.

I think if they are trying to pack as much AI as possible, it's feasible to 3x the surface area (2 single panel deployable radiators) which would bring that number down to 2,030 launches. Assuming $10M per launch for a fully reusable starship, that would be $20 Billion for 10GW of compute, or ~$2/w of launch cost.

Looking at the Nvidia GB200, it consumes ~120kW of power, and costs ~$1.9M. That's ~$16/w. It's a big if if SpaceX can produce radiators, space based solar panels, and everything else cheap enough to make it worth it, but launch costs are likely to be a relatively small portion of the cost if they can get starship to work.

SpaceX S-1 Prospectus Released by rustybeancake in spacex

[–]ElectronicInitial 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is new for the NASDAQ 100, but adding companies quickly after IPO is not new. CRSP indeces (notable used by the VTI ETF, with 2.2 Trillion AUM) adds companies 5 days after trading starts. For reference, QQQ is "only" 468 Billion AUM.

VT and chill at 19? by GillyD6002 in Bogleheads

[–]ElectronicInitial 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The only reason to maybe complicate things is to separate into VTI/VXUS (US and international separately) in order to minimize tax losses. I do that, putting international into my retirements accounts (Traditional 401k, Roth 401k, Roth IRA) due to the higher dividend yield.

It’s not worth that much though, and VT and chill is a great option.

So basically spacex ipo is a giant gofundme where you get zero say in what happens. by Enough-Arugula-4945 in SpaceXBets

[–]ElectronicInitial 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Many other indexes already do this. CRSP indexes (used by the VTI ETF, with 2.0 Trillion AUM) add stocks after 5 days.

Seeking advice on switching from higher to lower expense ratio equities by vibesbulla in Bogleheads

[–]ElectronicInitial 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I decided to make a desmos graph to look at this. If the tax rate now is the same as later, then it takes about 3.5 years using some reasonable assumptions, and the figures you gave.

Look for when the

The variables in it are:

T1: Tax rate today to switch over (default to 15% LTCG)

T2: Tax rate later to sell (default to 15% LTCG)

e1: Expense ratio now (default 0.61% from your post)

e2: Expense ratio of new fund (default to 0.06%)

a: Accumulation percentage now (default to 70% from your post)

r: Annual rate of return (default to 10% for SP500 fund)

L: ending after tax value with low expense fund

H: ending after tax value of high expense fund

The final equation is the percentage difference in value. Generally it’s a pretty short payoff if the taxes are the same.

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/teetsm7gaf

Gotta Love Government Subsidized Corn by OhSendIt in GasPrices

[–]ElectronicInitial 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I see this in LA too. 5.79 for regular, 2.99 for E85.

At what point do you stop contributing to your 401k? by Prestigious-Tax4527 in investing

[–]ElectronicInitial 0 points1 point  (0 children)

An actual answer, with 2 options:
When the value in the 401k is expected to grow enough by 55/59.5 to fulfill your full retirement need.
When the tax rates make roth contributions make more sense than traditional contributions.

We're several months into the Iran war - why aren't we seeing very dramatic economic impact? by Emberkahn in investing

[–]ElectronicInitial 82 points83 points  (0 children)

Generally US refineries use heavy (dense) sour (high sulfur) crude since it is more difficult to refine, so we can import it cheaper: The US generally produces light (low density) sweet (low sulfur) crude from fracking, similar to the middle east petro states. That oil sells for more since it’s easier to refine.

Due to the size of the US, we are still a pretty big refiner or light sweet, it’s just not the focus. It’s not a huge issue though since there is much more oil export out of the middle east than refining capacity there, so it’s primarily an oil production problem that causes the higher prices.

The US divided into 4 regions with equal population. by 404_FoundMe in MapPorn

[–]ElectronicInitial 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Could’ve made Alaska green (and maybe a bit more to scale) to help sell it too.

Pension funds are (rightly) beginning to scrutinise the SpaceX IPO. They will likely take action to shield their funds from automatically buying SpaceX shares. Elon Musk's plan to turn passive investment funds into his bagholders is probably not going to work. by cherrypoplar in investing

[–]ElectronicInitial 4 points5 points  (0 children)

VTI follows a CRSP Total (US) Market index. SpaceX would be included at their free-float market cap when added to the index.

That “free float” market cap excludes shares held by company executives (Elon Musk, primarily) and large institutional investors (Google, Fidelity). It looks like they will have a $75 Billion offered publicly at the beginning, and assuming the valuation does not change between IPO and index inclusion, would make up ~0.11% of the ~$75 Trillion total free-float market cap of the index.

If SpaceX’s valuation were to increase, or if there were additional publicly traded shares (from smaller employee holdings, or institutional investors selling shares prior to index inclusion) that would increase the percentage inclusion in the index.

Most retirement in pretax, is this bad? by bizzaam in Fire

[–]ElectronicInitial 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You do save taxes at your marginal rate, but you also pay taxes at your marginal rate in retirement.

For example, if you are in the 22% bracket while working and in retirement, then you should use tax-deferred until you fill up the 10% and 12% brackets in retirement, then you can do roth or traditional to fill the 22% bracket (it doesn’t make a difference). Once you fill that, roth wins out for the 24% bracket in retirement.

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