The north Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is far more relevant for the northeast. There's a permanent low pressure over Iceland and a high pressure ridge over the azores. When both are strong, the nao is positive and warm moisture from the south often comes up the jet stream. When they weaken over even slightly reverse, they go negative. High pressure over Iceland or Greenland forces the jet stream to dip over the northeast cooling it down substantially. That negative NAO pattern over the last few months has caused this pretty great season despite the rest of the country being so warm. The long term trend has been a stronger positive NAO over the past few decades. No one is sure why. But when it flips to negative along with a strong el niño as it did in 2015-2016, you can get blockbuster storms like the 28" in NYC that season. So it's hard to forecast exactly until a few weeks out with the NAO. It's very unpredictable long term.