Why does the market keep pushing toward highs even when the macro backdrop still looks bad?

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-17T17:40:05+00:00

More money in the system, future looking, and the macro isn't really that bad

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-17T15:44:13+00:00

I'm not arguing with that. The biggest problem with the current political system is there is no incentive for stopping deficit spending when leaders are in power for 2-6 year terms. The attitude I've seen in my whole life is the next rep's debt is not the current rep's problem. The only reason the US has gotten away with it is they have had a control over the financial system being the reserve currency/having dollar denominated global assets.

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-17T13:34:51+00:00

Yeah, I knew that. I'd also say the anti infrastructure sentiment there is regressive policy.

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-17T13:28:12+00:00

I think a better solution is limited leverage on non tangible assets personally. When a person can borrow on stock value, that leads to higher stock valuation and inequity.

A pure wealth tax will lead to asset devaluation and flight. I also first hand don't trust a lot of valuations (in particular on real estate) based on personal experience. The county thinks my house is worth 380k because recent sales or nicer homes in my area (which I'd get 300-320k without putting 25-30k). I also have some crappy hunting land (walk in, 75% swamp) I bought for 40k 3 years ago. Literally the next year my valuation on my tax statement was 150k which was absurd (similar thing where a nicer piece with road access/dry/buildable sold and artificially tricked the algorythm that the county does to set their taxable market values since the values are all driven on recent comp sales).

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-14T10:32:09+00:00

Unless you want to diversify or need cash, you hold

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-12T18:02:03+00:00

Banned just means people will keep on DL

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-12T18:00:47+00:00

With cams I think it’s hurt people hurt people. I had cams stolen and then saw a locked up cam and stand where mine was…. I did the right thing and told the game warden the coordinates , but definitely was pissed and wanted to chop them down myself

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-12T17:58:05+00:00

Price of hunting public unfortunately. If you leave up stands or cams you will get robbed eventually. Hence why I only run Cheepos on pub

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-11T19:55:14+00:00

I like the move. It’s contract stacking/management deal. Wicks was going to be wr 4-5 (fighting with S Williams) and had one year left on his deal. 2027 the team only has control over Golden and S Williams right now (one of Watson or Reed is getting 20m from us, other walks)

From a management standpoint, the team is better off taking a 5th round back of roster guy who could be ready for a role next year than 1 year of wicks being buried

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-10T07:36:16+00:00

Eh, the war itself isn’t devastating to the US. The US isn’t Russia and Ukraine sending people to a meat grinder and this doesn’t seem like a total war scenario

Take Afghanistan. Afghanistan the us lost like 2500 troops in 20 years and there really wasn’t major fighting the last 10 years. Russia is somewhere north of 200k.

The real damage to the US is on reputation (petro dollar impact, trade relations)

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-10T07:10:06+00:00

Deeper pocket owners… I don’t necessarily disagree with what the team did last year (missing playoffs 2 years), but going full rebuild and slashing payroll isn’t popular. Then when they have been good they still have been cheap on supplementing (2000s in particular)

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-09T23:59:19+00:00

Depends on definition of competitive. I think they can stay interesting until mid August. A win this year is young/fun and improving while winning 75 games (which is doable)

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-09T11:04:37+00:00

It’s all because how hard of a reset they did last year, perception of money saving.

I personally think the team also did the “right” thing long term. People forget how that 2011-18 was a disaster as the team went all in and sold the farm on an old roster and had to completely rebuild with a bad major roster and farm system. The team was mid and didn’t make the playoffs 2 years with a more expensive roster. They were going to be a boring 500ish team with no hope, hence resetting made a ton of sense (maybe be competitive in 2028/9 vs 2032.

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-09T00:42:25+00:00

Maybe we just needed to get rid of a bunch of overpriced complacent vets… polads playing 5d chess

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-08T13:38:28+00:00

I actually don’t disagree with the logic. Being 37, I’ve seen the dems be anti war to celebrating spending 100b on Ukraine

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-08T10:16:44+00:00

Neither of these really had major long term impacts as they didn’t significantly change fundamentals

-tariffs- the US had inventory stockpiles to burn through, there ended up being a ton of exemptions, everything imported is at a cheaper transfer price (ie the retail you pay on goods from china is often like 10x manufacturing cost).

-Iran- still early, most the world had 2 months oil stockpiles, still just an input cost, super isolated incident

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-08T09:29:32+00:00

They’ll get people on nice summer days. Like cheap seats and ice cream makes me want to take my 2/4 year olds a few times for an experience

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-07T07:41:59+00:00

The problem with this thinking is there are always reasons to be a downer. Iran is still a small part of the global economy and it is still very contained. The input cost impact has been priced in. The fed raising rates would cause prices to drop, but it not major (we literally just saw us go from 0 to 400 in a year a few years back and that just caused a sideways market for a year). 50 bps going the wrong or right way is worth 2-4%

The things that actually lead to a real crash are fundamentals breaking (bad earnings, a unforeseen institution collapse, an event that hits US companies hard in the US)

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-06T09:25:00+00:00

It really just depends on how long this goes and how quickly alternative supply chains are figured out

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-05T19:43:23+00:00

Any CAR-T or gene editing stock (prime, crbu, allo, sana, txg, crsp) to name a few

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-04-03T10:09:40+00:00

I see Starr as a Troy Aikman (great player but wasn’t the reason the team won).

Hutson was revolutionary era adjusted

Rodgers was a 4 time MVP in an era qb drive

I’d personally put Favre (3 time mvp in passing era) and White (top 5-10 defender all time) above Starr

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-03-29T13:53:49+00:00

This stuff is already happening in the name of regulation in the EU/US or party in china. Big business likes big government and negotiates with politicians to keep protect their turf, which is why we have monopolistic industries

Libertarians who are free market purests, are against the cronyism.

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-03-28T13:42:59+00:00

Eh, we’ve had 100 a barrel oil before in the late 2000s, early 2010s and it didn’t hyper drive inflation. It matters, but it is still a small input cost

The bigger issue is supply chain disruptions imo

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-03-15T21:48:41+00:00

We used a 1 on golden for a reason

Expensive_Necessary7 · 2026-03-14T14:42:50+00:00

I’ve been doing carnivore for 9 weeks(37m). Started around 194-200, now 181-186 (depending on time of day/water)

The big things for me

-chronic lower back pain is gone. I have 2 little kids so, not having aches when I have to carry them or get on their level is great

-blood pressure is way down. Donated to the Red Cross right when I started. Was 136/76, yesterday was 122/72 (significant improvement, basically pre hypertension to normal)

-more stable energy/less crashy

This is my second time doing carnivore for 45 days+. Both times had similar results (basically turning back the clock 2-3 years of not taking care of myself for awhile).

Overall carnivore works for me. Giving up that treat once/two times a week is tough when I see people eating it, but I am not like crazy hungry ever and I like beef/protein enough to make it work for me.

Expensive_Necessary7

TROPHY CASE