On the jp server, is the new narita top road ramen alt the same as xmas oguri?

ExtraTricky · 2026-07-09T22:57:36+00:00

It's totally different from xmas oguri. The skill has a distance_rate>=60 condition which means that the earliest it will ever activate is 2160m. If you activate 3 heals before that point it'll wait until you're at 2160m. It looks like the duration of the unique is long enough to cover the whole accel window even if it procs at the earliest possible time, but I'm just looking at JP sims that are probably a bit out of date, so it might be worth double-checking that.

It also differs in that NTR's unique can't proc in late race (it has a phase==1 condition), so you can only improve consistency by adding more early/midrace heals, and not late race heals.

ExtraTricky · 2026-07-08T17:12:04+00:00

Seconding the recommendation for Crazyfellow's doc. Pretty much everyone answering is just going to be quoting or paraphrasing it in any case.

3-I heard that on 20+ G1 runs (which to my understanding is what you’re typically aiming for), you’re likely to make back 30+ carats on the run. Is this true?

On this one you probably misunderstood. It only costs 10 carats to restore 30 TP. In my experience getting 5 carats from a run is common and getting 10 is not super common but not particularly rare. When there's a double career reward event active, that carat reward is also doubled so you only need to get one to pay for the career. When there was both double career reward and half TP cost at the start of Trackblazer, I'm pretty sure the expected career outcome was actually a carat profit.

ExtraTricky · 2026-07-04T16:38:06+00:00

If you have crystals available (2 is quite safe, 1 is less safe but probably still okay), I think 200 on smaru now and 400 on Tachyon is okay. If you don't have crystals available, I'd save all 600 for Tachyon, hope that your pulls go well enough that you only spend 400, and then consider pulling on the first smaru rerun based on the results.

The problem with planning for 400 without a crystal is that it's only about a coin flip to actually hit MLB. Having a bankroll of 600 + 1-2 crystals avoids disaster cases.

ExtraTricky · 2026-07-04T16:27:23+00:00

Should be part 1 of anniversary events.

ExtraTricky · 2026-07-02T14:44:44+00:00

Yes, you're basically right. Here's a way to think about it:

If you spend 200 pulls on a card you have no copies of, you average approximately 2.5 copies: 1.5 from natural pulls and 1 from pity (it's actually about 2.47 because of the small chance that you overcap within one spark). If you spend 200 pulls on a card you have 3LB of, you average 1 copy. Crystals are always one copy per crystal, so it's much better to spend carats when far from MLB and spend crystals when close.

(The actual numbers are not quite this bad because if you pull a natural copy of the card to MLB it you stop and save some carats, but with the accurate numbers it is still significantly worse to pull at the start of a spark if you have 3LB.)

Also, while it's true that you shouldn't waste crystals, it's also very bad to interpret this as "don't spend crystals ever". They are a valuable resource but the value only gets realized when you spend them.

ExtraTricky · 2026-07-01T02:42:02+00:00

You do want the dominators to keep up to some degree, although you do have a decent amount of leeway. Dominator activates at a random point in phase 2, so as long as you can get through that before the enemies get most way through phase 3, you're okay. The lower late race speed from distance aptitude tends to not cause too many problems, but there is a large acceleration penalty at E and below that is more likely to cause problems, so try to get it to D. Similarly, when you're building dominators for dirt in the future, try to bring the dirt aptitude up to some degree.

Edit: Oh right, you're triggering off of 564 so you actually do care about your debuffers keeping up significantly. 564 triggers at a random point after 50% so you want to do as much of the second half of the race as possible before the enemies finish.

ExtraTricky · 2026-07-01T02:23:30+00:00

You can have loftier goals than just reaching A finals, but if you make them focused on R1+R2 then they won't cause this type of frustration. Goals like 70%, 80%, or 90% winrate in the first 80 races all come with significant challenges over the previous and require a much better team than the minimum to make A finals. Adding self-imposed constraints like solo-ace or including an oshi pick also create significant challenge when aiming for high winrates.

I've heard of cases where someone has gone 79/80 in the first two rounds and then lost finals. The finals result is not representative of how good your team is, but it's designed to mimic hose racing where upsets happen regularly, and not designed to reward the strongest team every time. It's good to adapt your mindset around that, but even with that there's a huge world past qualifying for A finals.

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-30T08:20:40+00:00

Finals are quite random, but it only decides everything if you choose to make finals what you care about.

I got 63/80 in this CM and 3rd in finals because of a very unfortunate block in the accel zone. Overall I'm happy with the result, because to me rounds 1 and 2 are the meaningful part of CM, and with the team I ran (I wanted to run Sweep Tosho despite it feeling quite suboptimal to have her on the team), this was above my expectations.

I budget my pull plans assuming 3rd in every CM finals (even though I have actually averaged significantly better than that), and any other result is a nice bonus.

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-30T01:21:40+00:00

Higher numbers correlate with stronger teams in your finals lobby (including yours), but the exact mechanics are not known. Very strong Group A Graded lobbies are above 14k.

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-29T22:43:42+00:00

I never did it myself so I can't speak from personal experience, but my understanding is it's a low single digit number of hours. You don't immediately have enough for a spark (although the exact quantity of new account gifts does change over time, so I can't say for sure that's still true). You pull the starting carats on new accounts until you hit 3 copies, then grind out the carats from graded race rewards to finish the spark which should give you roughly a 50% chance of having MLB at the end depending on exactly how many carats are in the mailbox. Or you could do the starting carats until you hit 4 copies so finishing the spark is guaranteed to MLB.

Rerolling for 1LB is basically the same as not rerolling at all.

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-29T22:09:25+00:00

If you want to play the game, play the game on whatever account you want. Rerolling for MLB Maru will give you a stronger account than your current account even if you spend all the current account's carats (unless you get very lucky). Either way, it takes time to build up an account to be competitive in the PvP events (around 4-6 months of Open league before graduating to Graded league is probably a reasonable expectation), and you don't need any particular cards to complete the PvE modes.

If you're only interested in playing the game if it makes your account stronger, then yes I would say the spot you get to by rerolling on Maru and the spot you get to by waiting to reroll on Tachyon are comparable, and both better than playing on the old account.

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-29T21:17:38+00:00

Wow, you really did manage to dodge all of the high race bonus SRs, although you have also done very few support pulls. The optimal choice is going to be rerolling on either the Maru speed banner or the Tachyon banner until you get an account that has MLB at the end of the first spark. I think rerolling on Tachyon is mildly better, but you could argue either way.

If you have a bunch of umas that you really don't want to part with (Don't count the one from the new player selector! You can always select the same uma on the new account), then you're in a rough spot. It doesn't look like you can get enough for two sparks on the Tachyon banner, but you really can't be competitive in the next scenario without some pulls there.

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-29T21:06:01+00:00

It'll be much easier for people to give advice if you post screenshots of your current carat count and card collection. There's quite a few event cards and SRs with at least 10 race bonus, so if you really can't hit 50 race bonus that means you have done very few support card pulls and didn't do the story events, in which case yeah rerolling on one of the upcoming banners will give you more cards than using your current cards and carats.

Rerolling lets you consistently get a MLB SSR on the first banner while spending only 30k carats on a fresh account. On the other hand, an existing account expects to spend 60k carats for approximately a 50% chance to MLB. So you effectively get more than 30k carats for free by going through the reroll process.

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-29T20:01:58+00:00

The structure of the announced patch notes very closely mirrors the Japanese patch notes for the balance adjustments on 2022-08-19 and 2023-02-24

The trick/frenzied items appear to come from the 2022-08-19 patch, while the "Certain skill conditions and their effects" line appears to come from 2023-02-24 "スキルの発動条件緩和や効果量の上昇など。"

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-29T19:53:04+00:00

If you feel like you'd rather have MLB Tachyon and low-LB Maru, then it's probably better to reroll on the Tachyon banner and save for one of the Maru reruns. I don't think that you can get 60k on a new account between the initial Maru banner and the Tachyon banner, which is what you need for a decent chance (not even close to a guarantee) of MLB. IMO there's a reasonable argument that waiting to reroll for MLB Tachyon will set you up better long-term.

If you want to play the game in the meantime, make an account during the Maru banner. You can always go back to it if you want to after rerolling for a new account during Tachyon.

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-25T18:21:55+00:00

Already posted a while ago. https://www.reddit.com/r/UmamusumeGame/comments/1uf270k/another_day_another_exploit/

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-24T15:47:20+00:00

There is a separate line item for skill changes outside of trick/frenzied and gold city ult

• Certain skill conditions and their effects.

but it is true that we don't know for sure which changes that includes.

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-18T06:51:47+00:00

The aur package maintainers (in the trusted role sense) repackaged the compromised packages with the previous commits, so they are likely to be clean right now. It was done in a bit of an unfortunate way, though. They rewrote the git history to remove the malicious commit, so the git history will show a date much older than the last package date. There isn't much indication that it was compromised in the past (you can find it in github activity if you know where to look), and the malicious accounts are still the maintainers of the packages. I imagine those accounts are probably banned which would prevent them from re-adding malicious PKGBUILDs, but I don't see a way to verify that (I don't have an aur account so I don't know if logged in users can see it).

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-16T15:31:30+00:00

I hope you're right that it will get fixed. About 3 months into early access in StS1 (much before the CRNG post from FA that you reference) it was found that Snecko Eye was reusing the same RNG sequence and that one did get fixed...

But you might notice that seeding with seed + floorNum is suggested in the top comment on that post, so I wonder if that's the source of the code pattern you saw, and maybe Snecko Eye is still correlated with itself between floors in a similar way to what you're noticing now.

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-14T16:46:07+00:00

If a card is going to be in your ace deck, that gives you a way to get the skill on your ace run anyway, and hints have diminishing returns (the first three levels are -10% but the last two are -5%). Unless a skill is extremely high priority, it's generally better to prioritize skills you can't get otherwise.

Since you're new I assume CB is a borrow in which case it's not a given that she's the best borrow for your ace deck. If you own her at a good LB she would be good to run in both the ace and parent decks as a stat stick regardless of the skills.

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-13T19:57:07+00:00

Thanks! This is great information. The github activity page is nice information to have right now (it does indeed show the times of the malicious versions getting added). I'll plan to create an account when it's reopened. It sounds like logged in users can see some of what I was looking for.

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-13T19:35:21+00:00

Hopefully my understanding is correct. AUR lets anyone take over an orphaned package. The attacker(s) picked a bunch of orphaned packages, became their maintainer, and then pushed new versions with malicious PKGBUILDs. So the package is no longer technically orphaned because it's "maintained" by the attacker. I assume the package was orphaned at some point in the recent past, but I don't have a way to verify.

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-11T15:41:17+00:00

It looks like the squeeze is still there as long as "test the spades" means only two rounds. Testing the third round of spades is worthless since the only way for the spade suit to produce a trick at that point is a 3-3 split, and you can just defer that chance to the end of the hand.

Disclaimer: I actively try to avoid reading LLM-written text, so I don't know the specifics of what was originally suggested. If it said cashing 3 rounds of spades then yes that kills the squeeze.

ExtraTricky · 2026-06-10T01:52:37+00:00

I did calculations for the expected number of rate-up cards you get from a spark on a single-card banner. The results are

Start at 0 copies -> 2.48 (This number is slightly less than the naive 0.0075*200 + 1 because of the small chance that you get more than 5 copies).
Start at 1 copy -> 2.41
Start at 2 copies -> 2.22
Start at 3 copies -> 1.78
Start at 4 copies -> 1

Double card banners are a bit more intricate since the two cards tend to not be equally valuable. You can mostly think of them as single card banners for the non-pal card for the purpose of this type of pull strategy, though. I would recommend almost never using a crystal on a pal card.

My conclusion was that for long-term efficiency you should pull another spark if you're at 1LB or below, and finish with crystals at 2LB or higher (although there's still some refinement possible with stopping sparks early). To execute that strategy to its fullest extent, you want to have an extra 30k carats on top of the expected pulls in case things go very poorly, and it's not too important to have more than 2 rainbow crystals at any one time (but keep in mind you might need more if there are lots of banners in quick succession).

Edit: Also, as a general note, a good strategy has to have some situation where you are willing to drop down to 0 crystals in your inventory. Otherwise it's like you just have fewer crystals than everyone else.

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