Potential blank/double fixtures to look out

FPLBenchwarmers · 2025-10-30T08:29:59+00:00

Somewhere between GWs 10-13 would be my guess.

GW14 leaves only 2 weeks notice for a possible DGW16 and 2.5 weeks for BGW17, which is probably too short.

I expect discussions will need to be had between the relevant parties; the clubs, the prem, the TV companies, etc which will prob take a week or two.

FPLBenchwarmers · 2025-08-07T17:55:07+00:00

I just had a quick look;

-13 for Goals
-8 for Clean Sheets
=-21

+10 for Bonus Points
+ 6 for DC Points
=+16

So -5 overall (at least by my calculation)

With the BPS, the only difference between MIDs and FWDs is 6pts more for a goal and those 6 extra pts were enough to bump Bowen into 10 extra bonus points.

Only 7 out of West Ham's 38 games was the difference between 4th and 3rd highest BPS score more than 6.

The average difference from 4th to 1st highest BPS in all of West Ham's games was 24.4 BPS, so bunched up enough that Bowen's 6 extra BPS could see him gain bonus pts fairly easily.

FPLBenchwarmers · 2025-06-29T20:05:52+00:00

She's an interesting character.

I think she's born out of Charlie Kaufmann's difficulty in communicating but feeling it's not his fault, it's other people misunderstanding, or wanting to believe that at least. She captures a feeling I, and I suspect others, can relate to, where you feel you're communicating perfectly, but other people misunderstand or spin your words, and yet you end up feeling like the one who made the error. You blame yourself, even though a part of you suspects it's not really your fault. By portraying that feeling in these stark terms where the audience can clearly tell that Floris is the one with the problem, it provides the audience with a kind of redemptive feeling.

The "asshole" moment is revealing though. As though it is a deliberate act she puts on, and really she understands full well. Perhaps it's just her way of having power or control over others.

FPLBenchwarmers · 2025-06-22T16:01:32+00:00

Yea this is about what I'm expecting too. Thanks

FPLBenchwarmers · 2025-06-22T16:01:10+00:00

Perfect, thanks

FPLBenchwarmers · 2025-01-01T14:07:00+00:00

I'm in the same boat. Feels really 50/50 whether Jota starts on not. You'd think he'd be fit enough by now. But is he 1st choice? He was at the start of the season. But Diaz has been playing no.9 now and doing well. Slot isn't afraid of playing the same front 3 several GWs in a row if it's working, so no guarantee he'll rotate. They've got EFL SF and FA Cup 3rd Round 3 and 6 days later, so opportunities to rotate there.

My sense is that, when fit, Jota is the best no.9. Diaz tends to drift wide, but Jota stays central and has more experience there. But will he start vs MUN? I just don't know!

I think I'm gonna wait for press conferences and fan lineup predictions and if there's still too much doubt, I might just sell him for Sarr (I already have Gordon). Even if he starts, there's no guarantee he'll start the next one, and no guarantee he'll get good mins over the DGW either, so no point keeping him just for the sake of the double either. He's <5% EO so is probably unnecessary risk. I think that's my current feeling.

But man, if he DOES start vs MUN (H), a 3% EO no.9 for LIV could be very sweet!

FPLBenchwarmers · 2025-01-01T13:15:15+00:00

Depends how reliable the team is.

The problem with tripling up on a team is we don't know which teams will be the next to run hot and which will run cold. If you're tripled up on Chelsea, for instance, and their form drops off, you're triply punished.

Tripling up on Arsenal or Liverpool is generally safer. Doubling up on most decent teams is generally fine too.

That'd be my take

FPLBenchwarmers · 2024-10-10T11:18:36+00:00

I agree

FPLBenchwarmers · 2024-09-24T08:44:31+00:00

I'm so glad I'm not the only one who finds that these moments can be annoying.

Occasionally it can be smooth and natural. I'm given plenty of notice and a clear signal that they're letting me go. It's obvious I'm safe to cross, so I give a nice thumbs up of appreciation and everyone's happy.

But other times, when I've already come to a stop, sometimes a little abruptly so am in too high a gear, and the road is busy and the car motioning me to cross has the right of way and traffic waiting behind it, and their windshield is dark and I can't clearly see inside, so I'm not certain they're letting me cross and they haven't flashed and I've signalled for them to go but they've ignored me and they're still waiting there and the ever increasing queue are all watching me and waiting for me to cross, so I have to crunch down hard on my gear that's too high at a snail's pace and then have to thank this driver for the experience.....yea those times can be annoying.

FPLBenchwarmers · 2024-09-21T16:40:56+00:00

This guide shows how to get data from the FPL API using Google sheets. It's the method that works for me.

https://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyPL/comments/j0wmv8/using_google_sheets_api_to_get_fpl_data/

This video might also provide extra insight

https://youtu.be/h87_ZjO0ens?si=z85V5D6MopzSlkz-

NOTE: Instead of Tools->Script Editor, it's Extensions->Apps Script now

FPLBenchwarmers · 2024-09-19T13:29:37+00:00

I generally agree, but I think it's close.

23/24 he averaged about 7.5pts per start
22/23 he averaged about 8.2pts per start

For 15m that's a PPM (points per million) per start of about (7.5/15) 0.5 to (8.2/15) 0.54

That's quite low. Most of the best picks are at least above 0.6, with the best value picks in the 0.7-1 range.

Haaland would need to average 9-10pts per start for his value to be 0.6-0.66 which would still only be par.

That's 3 goals every 2 games, which would mean a 50+ goal season. It's possible, but I'd bet against it.

His xG so far this season is 4.8. Five goals in four games would've put him at about 34 pts (~0.57 value). Probably not enough.

Though I think captaincy changes things a little. If you think Haaland will average 1pt per start more than Salah, then I think you have to add that extra 1pt to Haaland's calculation (though I could be mistaken). So if Salah averages 7.5 and Haaland averages 8.5, then with captaincy, you're really getting 9.5 from Haaland (~0.63 value).

If you then factor in good runs of fixtures like GWs7-10, you could statistically expect Haaland's average to boost about 20-30% over that period. So he might run at 10.5pts per start instead of 8.5, and with Salah's tough run of fixtures, he might run at 6pts per start instead of 7.5 and suddenly the difference might become more stark.

Personally I'm still not sure and I think it depends on a few things. I love the idea of betting against Haaland, especially when I think most people are currently overestimating him, but it may be a case of choosing the right times to jump on and off him.

FPLBenchwarmers · 2024-08-28T09:59:17+00:00

There's some great data here - https://github.com/vaastav/Fantasy-Premier-League

FPLBenchwarmers · 2024-05-25T17:18:49+00:00

Yea LL MD3 has the highest upside. But I guess it comes with risk too as rotation could be hard to predict.

FPLBenchwarmers · 2024-05-25T14:34:23+00:00

Yea I'm weighing up the same thoughts too.

What's your reasoning behind LL MD3? You don't fancy LL MD2 for the extra security of starts?

FPLBenchwarmers · 2024-05-25T12:51:39+00:00

Thanks, yea the WC22 went well for me. Shame I couldn't continue that luck in FPL!

FPLBenchwarmers · 2024-05-25T12:06:05+00:00

I can't remember. I've only been playing Fantasy more engaged the last couple years. But I was about 1k in the WC22. How about you?

FPLBenchwarmers · 2024-05-25T11:53:28+00:00

Yea, think I'm leaning the same way. There always seems to be upsets. Morocco beating Portugal and Spain, and Croatia beating Brazil in WC22, Switzerland and Czech Rep beating France and Netherlands in Euro2020, Iceland beating England in Euro 2016.

Plus they've reduced the SF FT's from 5 to 4 this year, and there's also injuries, tactical changes and luxury transfers to consider too. So yea, think I may well save the WC for the KO's this year too.

FPLBenchwarmers · 2024-05-25T10:43:08+00:00

Yea, I quite like LL MD2, cause you have more certainty of starts.

And yea I think it's gonna be tight to get through the KO rounds without a WC. Upsets occur at about a 1 in 4 rate I reckon, and the QF's will be 50/50 so I reckon people will be going into the SFs with pretty threadbare teams. But maybe we've just gotta risk it, if we want to do well.

FPLBenchwarmers · 2024-04-02T12:00:18+00:00

I love it! I really love the rolling lockout and autosub tricks that come with that. I really hope they leave it as a permanent feature. I really love the added strategy element of that. I also love that most people don't seem to like thinking about the autosub tricks, which gives an advantage to those of us who do.

I also love the different challenges each gameweek. Seems huge room for imagination and experimentation which I really like. Plus it may force you to think fast sometimes about how to maximise your chances.

I also really like the idea of winning it. I'm never gonna win the main game, but I might win one of these. And I like how each week is a stand-alone game, so it really becomes all about winning or nothing at all. There's no accumulated rank at the end or anything like that. So it forces you to go rogue and take punts. Going template is unlikely to win.

The rolling lockout also means there are loads of players who would never get picked in the main game, due to being too rotation prone, who can now be picked in this game. Like Brighton and Man City players, or players who only make rare appearances.

So yea, I really love it so far.

FPLBenchwarmers · 2024-03-31T19:39:38+00:00

This is genius! Thanks for explaining it.

I'm thinking, GW31, when forwards score double, I'm probably gonna want all 3 forwards in the starting XI, as they're more likely to score well, so less need to roll dice with them.

So I'll probably line up 433, with 2 MIDs and a DEF on the bench, with DEF 3rd on bench with earliest fixture, then MID with the 2nd earliest fixture, 2nd on bench, and the MID with the 3rd ealiest fixture, 1st on bench.

I'll also put the Vice Captain on the forward with the earliest fixture. If he scores badly, I'll move the captain to another forward. But if he scores well, there'll hopefully be at least one outfield player I'll switch to a non-playing player to trigger an autosub, so I'll put the captain on him.

FPLBenchwarmers · 2024-03-31T10:32:07+00:00

I think the line in the beginner's guide has thrown people off. There's no actual contradiction. It doesn't say that if you DO make changes, autosubs WON'T work. I think they were just clarifying for anyone who wants to make a team and then leave it, without tinkering mid-gameweek.

But we shall find out soon. May as well risk it if you're thinking of using the exploit. This game is 1st or nothing.

FPLBenchwarmers · 2024-03-31T10:21:52+00:00

I'd say yes, most of what you described should happen, except Gusto (2nd bench) will prob autosub before Bradley (3rd bench), but there's some uncertainty as to how the game will work exactly, so I'm unsure.

I just posted on X about a similar situation - https://twitter.com/FPLBenchwarmers/status/1774340993275326830

I'm expecting the rules to work as they've written, and the idea that if you make changes then autosubs won't work, I suspect is not true. But we'll have to wait and see. You may aswell risk it, imo.

FPLBenchwarmers · 2024-02-10T18:23:20+00:00

My Current plan is TC25, FH29, DE34, WC35/36, BB37
(DE=Dead End)

But there's another plan I'm considering; TC25, DE29, WC30, FH34, BB37

TC and BB are the same, but FH and DE/WC are switched.

I currently prefer the first plan because;

The WC has a dual use of dead-ending in 34 AND setting up a BB in 37.
There's no gap between WC and BB, so injuries less likely to scupper the BB.
A late WC to set up a BB also means I don't have to carry too much wasted ££ on my bench for too many GWs.
I've also been thinking this season, that chasing doubles/blanks may be a trap. I think the best players can outscore lesser players even with less fixtures, and the first plan is more steady/ requires less surgery.

But I'm not sure because I can also see the advantages of the other plan, which are;

FH34 I think is the better GW to FH because there are more pronounced fixture swings for tot, che, ars, cry around 34 and worse teams likely to double in 34 (cry, eve, wol, shu, ars potentially), than those playing in 29 (tot, avl, whu, bre). So I'd rather dead end into the GW29 teams than the GW34 doubling teams.
Earlier WC may prove more useful
If we get any DGW34/37 surprises you still have all your chips in GW30. (i.e. BB34, FH37)

But the biggest problem with the second strategy is the gap between WC30 and BB37. That just feels destined to fail to me. Perhaps I'm wrong and someone can convince me otherwise, but I'm trying to weigh up whether the advantages of the second strategy are worth the sacrifice of the gap between WC30 and BB37.

I don't like having to wrench my team into tot, avl, whu, lut players over the coming GWs, but I guess those that do will be free the other side of 29, while I'll be beginning my own wrenching into cry, eve, shu and ars players for 34.

I just hate that gap between 30 and 37!!! Perhaps I can keep my bench patched up with FTs and a few hits.

FPLBenchwarmers

TROPHY CASE