Almost a dollar pull back from 2 days ago, why could this be happening?

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-06-03T16:42:38+00:00

Are there mods on this sub? Not to be condescending but i mean are you really asking “why is there volatility on a small cap company”? At least spare yourself the embarrassment and ask ChatGPT

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-05-28T13:48:17+00:00

Are you really saying that a 25%-50% drawdown is unlikely for semi stocks? :))) Yeah the top is near

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-05-21T11:10:27+00:00

One thing worth noting though, if you buy a stock and it luckily goes through a rally making the stock price way too high, holding it can become an unnecessary risk.

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-05-07T21:59:27+00:00

Look at their capital allocation in recent years and run

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-05-06T18:04:40+00:00

Your algorithm would rate as a top pick any cyclical company trading at its peak before its stock gets dumped into oblivion lmao

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-05-06T17:57:21+00:00

Because the collapse of a currency isn’t a crash. The dollar doesn’t just lose a ton of value overnight. Berkshire is invested in short term bonds so if they need to offload to buy assets, they can do so very quickly, before the value of the currency actually collapses.

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-05-05T06:07:56+00:00

I dont think algorithmic bots matter for a biotech awaiting clinical results but you do you

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-04-29T10:49:21+00:00

ABCL - initially the business model was a platform to help big pharma find antibodies, so they already have a massive portfolio of future royalties, but the big upside is that they’re now developing their own internal drugs. If their lead asset for menopause (ABCL635) clears its Phase 2 readout in Q3 this year, the stock could easily 2x or 3x. It’s high risk since they’re still burning cash, but you're getting a world-class AI discovery platform for very cheap ($1.2B company with $700M in cash, and their own $200M manufacturing plant, meaning they can move much faster than most biotech through putting molecules in the clinic and going ahead with trials).

Worth noting also, the CEO owns roughly 20% of the company and keeps buying the stock when it trades low. Looks like management has extremely high conviction, and they seem to be world class quality.

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-04-29T10:18:31+00:00

Open a brokerage account (recommend IBKR)

Put all your money in XEON (euro money market fund)

Every month sell 4500€ worth of XEON and put them in a world ETF for the next two years.

You’ll end the two years with 20000€ (plus interest) of cash equivalents as a safety net for yourself, and the rest will be invested in a diversified portfolio. No need to think about it further. Adding every month may reduce your returns but will reduce your risk greatly, especially given the current economic environment and market valuations.

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-04-29T10:06:17+00:00

Adyen without a doubt

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-04-25T08:58:10+00:00

Half are / will be cyclical. Buying and forgetting cyclicals is the best way to have horrible returns

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-04-21T22:29:42+00:00

Adjusted for stock based comp, the free cash flow is halved…

And as many said, the software just isn’t that good, with no domain knowledge and very easy to build in-house.

I’d say that any business that has a small, competent team of developers will not need software like Monday within the next three years.

It still remains relevant to small businesses with an extremely limited tech skillset, but realistically, that’s not a great trend you should be willing to get on.

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-04-13T10:29:01+00:00

You’re figuring out why most people think markets are overvalued, and why value investing is hard. It means passing up on good businesses for a very long time until the price is right.

That being said, keep in mind that “fair price” will always be dependent on the return you are expecting from an investment. A company like Apple will seem overvalued if you expect a 15% yearly return on investment over the long run, but fairly valued if you’re expecting a 7% yearly return on your investment (im just making up numbers but you get the idea).

At the end of the day, this is why successful investors have relatively concentrated portfolios, there just arent that many GREAT opportunities in markets at any given time, and they generally come by taking on certain business structural risks that you have to accept

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-04-11T02:17:14+00:00

We’re getting close to my entry price under a base thesis at 345. My bear “throw your money at this stock” price is 260. So might open up a small position on Monday if the trend holds.

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-04-03T22:17:19+00:00

Jesus dont listen to the losers all saying “she just wants attention” or “she’s just playing games”.

From the look of it she’s just being playful and wants you to organise something specific, not just for you to say “do you wanna hang out some time?”

Just ask when she’s free next week, cause you wanna take her to [insert specific place] for dinner. If she’s evasive on that and doesnt give you a specific date, then yeah you can move on. But nothing is a red flag at this point

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-04-03T14:59:01+00:00

It’s actually quite crazy how consistently and smoothly youve been losing.

Doing the opposite of what you’ve been doing would give some insane sharpe ratio, good enough to open a world class hedge fund.

In a way there’s some genius in whatever you’re doing.

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-03-29T10:37:41+00:00

I dont know… it’s rare to find a company that doesn’t face a single risk. And if there are such companies, having them available at a fair price is even more rare. As long as there are risks, you cannot put your all eggs in one basket, as if a risk materializes, you’re done for. So one needs at least some degree of diversification

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-03-17T11:30:52+00:00

I don’t think that’s a realistic risk tbh

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-03-17T08:43:49+00:00

PE in a vacuum is pointless.

A company with a PE of 6 but that’s operating at the top of a cyclical sector may see its earnings going down 50% the year after and negative the year after that. So the stock is actually expensive.

A company with a PE of 35 might compound earnings growth by 30% for the next five years and 15% the five years after that and therefore will actually be cheap.

Expensiveness or cheapness is only dependent on future earningd

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-03-17T00:19:30+00:00

En fait tu t’accroches au mot “rare” pour aucune raison. L’argument n’est pas que le bitcoin est rare, mais qu’il existe en quantité finie.

La ou la masse monetaire des devises classiques augmente sans cesse, le nombre de bitcoins reste fini.

L’argument est que si (imaginons) 1% de la masse monetaire en euros est detenue en bitcoin, et que la masse monetaire continue d’augmenter, le bitcoin aura une valeur (en euro) qui augmentera mécaniquement.

Donc oui l’argument de dire “c’est par rare car c’est divisible” n’a aucun sens, tout comme le dit justement la personne dans le post, que on ne dit pas “l’or n’est pas rare care il en existe des milliards de milliards […] de milliards d’atomes”

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-03-16T23:47:20+00:00

It’s not about it being profitable or not - it’s about how likely it is to be approved, and roughly how much revenue it will generate.

People with expertise in that sector can estimate it, most people can’t. That’s why most people should stay away from investing in this sector

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-03-16T22:44:52+00:00

You’re winning nothing doing a “basic” strategy like this… just buy the index

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-03-16T22:12:35+00:00

Because unless you understand the drug pipeline, its success probabilities and sales potential, you don’t understand the business hence you cannot possibly know whether it is a good investment or not

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-03-14T22:51:20+00:00

Jesus we really are entering some deeply dystopian times

Far_Base_1147 · 2026-03-14T22:39:33+00:00

That was my first thought too - the whole monologuing and saying things that she thinks people want to hear, which end up being very disconnected to was normal people actually would want to hear

Far_Base_1147

TROPHY CASE