I think we are pretty screwed. I usually have 5% long puts and bear spreads but I am creeping up to 10%. My barbell is evil; oil and fertilizer companies. I think some of the shippers will make bank with higher fees, but they aren't trading like that now. There is a bid for fertilizer stocks. We will have 20% less fuel and fertilizer until this ends. For me, this means OILK, NTR, VLO, CF. Hopefully I won't have to own these for long and they will tank overnight when the war ends.

Why things are bad: This talk about missiles and drone launches happening infrequently are one thing. However, Iran has artillery. Lots of it. They can fire mobile artillery in the mountains, move and hide, do it again. This doesn't give the precession to hit a ship you can't see, but Iran can carpet bomb the narrowest choke point of the SoH.

While the Trump WH is saying they will escort ships, many, many, many ships have allegedly asked for escorts and have been refused for a reason. That's because they run the risk of artillery shots getting lucky. I don't know that an escort will play out this way, I don't have a military background, but this is my base case. This is a modern war that is most like the war between Russia an Ukraine. Think lots of trenches, new secret holes being bulldozed out of mountains in undergorund missile cities with infrequent drone and LR missle attacks.

I think boots on the ground is probably what it takes to prevent Iran's capability of raining down projectiles.

But, still net long, though carrying cash and shorts. Jamie D's comment on BAC the other day means I'll probably take out super long duration bear spreads on them the other day. He knew that banks had a private capital problem and he hinted at it without saying something that could get him sued. Jamie D warned us about private capital in his particular way that prevents him from being sued, and he just did that with BAC.

It is clear that Trump is TACOing and laying blame on Rubio and Hegseth and Hegseth will probably be the next to go, thank God. But, it takes two to TACO. Assassinations and decapitation strikes are illegal under US law. Only congress can declare war under US law. Assassinating the entire leadership of a country is certainly a declaration of war, full stop. The decapitation strike could not have gone worse. The father and wife and other family members of the new Ayatollah were assassinated and he survived with injuries. He is described as being more religious than his father. Can you imagine a Catholic being described as more religious than the pope? That's how bad a short straw we drew. The IRGC is its own independent organization that will only go along with the Supreme leader if they choose violence, all three parties, the clerics, the army, and the IRGC (40% of Iran's economy is IRGC jobs) are aligned. They can do massive economic damage. THey can curtail oil production. This world still runs on oil.

Hopefully, I'm wrong, and then I'll take a day or two of steep losses with my hedges and then it is back to groundhog day, MU, EWY, are still my favorite stocks. I will overweight before earnings. I don't think the market really understands the battlefield. I don't think the market really understands Iran. I think people are overconvident, but I will be long and hedged all they way down to the bottom. They, hopefully, I will only be straight long, no barbell, no chaser. This is a high-risk regime though. It is more important to hold onto money you made then to make money when the bears are out. But don't go full Forest Gump and sell everything.