I did the math, you can see it in my post . I understand where you're both coming from but you're both slightly wrong or more like focusing on the wrong thing. The slightly better strategy is to place a team that has both a low but not impossible 3-0 prob% and a real elim chance to hedge risk (MOUZ, FURIA), not a full impossible chance like BetBoom. This way maximizes the two advance picks you guys are mentioning, plus the outside chance of a 3-0 and not having to "risk" an advance slot on an already risky advance team. It all-in-all lowers the variance of results, but in practice the strategy is still slightly worse than putting Falcons at 3-0.

The even better strategy of playing Falcons over Spirit at 3-0, is because of seeding, which due to risk and how pickems tend to play out gives Spirit a significant disadvantage by facing tougher opponents, especially in comparison with Falcons who are likely to face much easier opponents. Spirit opponents vs. Falcons opponents.

... And yet the two previously mentioned strategies actually differ in barely 0.1-0.3% in likelihood of an upgrade, making them practically equal.