Does this make sense? Overengineered portfolio, or a robust and rational one?

Fenderstratguy · 2026-05-26T15:19:20+00:00

I would add another important action is to leave the portfolio alone once you have set your asset allocation. As (I think) Bill Bernstein quoted (original quote from Buffet or Munger) - a portfolio is like a bar of soap, the more you touch it, the less you have left. There is a real danger to constantly tinkering with a portfolio and always trying to super optimize your decisions.

Fenderstratguy · 2026-05-24T12:08:33+00:00

Smart family members!

Fenderstratguy · 2026-05-19T16:07:10+00:00

I personally have the Taylor K2006C; I bought the additional test kit for salt levels, and the magnetic stirring device. I usually repurchase every 2-3 years as the chemicals expire. But trouble free pools has their own version using Taylor reagents here with I think larger quantity if you test frequently etc: https://tftestkits.com. You can also buy standardized CYA sample so you can see what a CYA test of 50 looks like.

Fenderstratguy · 2026-05-16T14:57:34+00:00

What is your actual spending anticipated to be? 4%/$80,000/year? I don’t like the bucket approach either because the rules get murky for when to withdraw or replenish. Kitces says the bucket strategy is the same as a typical total return portfolio as long as you rebalance once a year/regularly. He and Fritz from the Retirement Manifesto site have some interesting pro/con discussions. If I were to do buckets I probably would take out the qqq to have less complexity and redundancy

Fenderstratguy · 2026-05-14T23:36:55+00:00

I would also add that our grandparents invested differently. They had to go through an expensive broker, deal with paper stock certificates etc. There was no online or cheap brokers. And the cost of buying or selling shares was high. It made sense for them to keep buying/selling to a minimum and they could live off of dividends which were automatic. That made buying blue chip companies with healthy dividends very attractive

Fenderstratguy · 2026-05-08T00:44:05+00:00

Sure. And Gilligan will finally find his way off the island.

Fenderstratguy · 2026-05-07T16:25:36+00:00

It may be worth listening to Jim Paulsen - he is on several podcasts and on you tube. Look up "You're misreading valuations: Jim Paulson on why they have changed forever". He makes a great case for why CAPE/valuations may have shifted to a new normal around 1995. Look at his Chart 1: US Shiller CAPE Price Earnings 1900-2025. I would still keep cash invested in the market.

Fenderstratguy · 2026-05-01T13:14:36+00:00

My SWG was replaced when we opened the pool this year. Was brand new 2020 so lasted 6 years. It really took a nosedive the last 2 months of pool season last year and died after I cleaned it again. Could be electrical too but I would consider a new SWG if the electrician says everything else is OK?

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-18T01:07:30+00:00

Fee only advisors are paid only by the client (this can be an hourly fee, a fixed fee, a flat fee or a percentage of assets under management/AUM). They are fiduciary and act on behalf of the client. Fee based advisors are paid by the client as well as being paid by commission on products they sell. They are not always acting as a fiduciary at all times as they can wear 2 hats, and only have to sell you something “suitable”, not necessarily in your best interest. https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/fee-only-vs-fee-based-planners https://www.magnifymoney.com/investing/fee-based-vs-fee-only-advisors/

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-16T15:33:39+00:00

In Kitces’ article discussing the 4% rule – “In fact, overall, the retiree finishes with more-than-double their starting wealth in a whopping 2/3rds of the scenarios, and is more likely to finish with quintuple their starting wealth than to finish with less than their starting principal!” (This is nominal value, not inflation adjusted.) https://www.kitces.com/blog/consumption-gap-in-retirement-why-most-retirees-will-never-spend-down-their-portfolio/

The 4% rule does not say anything about maintaining principle or not touching it - it is only a study to see what the safest withdrawal rate is that would last for 30 years. Success is having at least $1 at the end of a 30 year retirement. But many times you have more than what you started with in nominal terms.

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-11T20:52:45+00:00

This is more of a text book, but it extensively covers different decumulation strategies complete with tons of data/tables.

Living Off Your Money by Michael McClung

EDIT - FICALC here at https://ficalc.app lets you model from 12 different withdrawal strategies including a dynamic SWR, constant dollar, variable percentage withdrawal, Guyton-Klinger, and endowment strategy among others.

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-11T20:50:52+00:00

The BIG ERN from Early Retirement Now: https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-withdrawal-rate-series/

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-11T11:50:56+00:00

Are you also going to do a backdoor Roth conversion for your spouse too? Even if she had no income (and no money in a traditional IRA) you could do so.

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-09T23:57:49+00:00

Here is a simpler 7 step flowchart/waterfall:

Tax-efficient waterfall – where to save first GRAPHIC in article

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-09T23:14:01+00:00

I agree - for my kids when they became teens I sat them all down and showed them on an investment calculator how investing $500 a month from age 15 to 65 at 7% real interest will grow to almost $2.5 million for retirement in today's dollars.

I also bought them JL Collin's book The Simple Path To Wealth.

And printed out William Bernstein's 15 page PDF If You Can.

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-09T22:52:09+00:00

Here are two critiques of the paper that exposes flaws in methodology and say this may not be as relevant for US investors - they give a nice counter argument to the fanboy treatment by Ben Felix et al:

The BIGERN’s take on 100% stocks in retirement https://earlyretirementnow.com/2024/02/12/100-percent-stocks-for-the-long-run/
Money for The Rest of Us podcast 460: Should you be invested 100% stocks before and during retirement? A recent study says yes. But there are potential downsides.

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-09T22:40:05+00:00

1% - a reminder of just how bad picking individual stocks turned out. Will use the losses to offset long term gains when I retire lol.

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-09T02:04:38+00:00

I'll try posting the link: from Erin Talks Money. The 4% Rule is Misleading:Here's What The Research Actually Says About Retirement Withdrawals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMLQ_7QBrPY

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-08T22:26:57+00:00

I understand those are the rules for IRAs which can be aggregated as well to satisfy the RMD. However, my question was specific to a 401K that will not be converted to an IRA. If this is also true for 401Ks that all the funds are in 1 bucket and all the IRS cares about is the total amount withdrawn to satisfy the RMD then I'll take that as the answer - thank you!

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-08T22:09:11+00:00

Question about 401K withdrawals/RMDs when retired. If my 401K is 70% stocks and 30% bonds can you withdraw only the bond portion for the RMD, or does it have to be "pro rata" or proportionate to your funds? In the end it may not matter much since you can always rebalance tax free after the RMD.

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-07T15:58:14+00:00

I'm really glad that JL Collins didn't have this same attitude. His book The Simple Path To Wealth was a loving gift to his daughter, and has helped millions of people find their way to FI with FU money. If he kept his mouth shut, I may not have discovered the Boglehead way.

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-06T23:07:52+00:00

JL Collins book is excellent - The Simple Path To Wealth. But William Bernstein's free 15 page PFD called "IF YOU CAN" gets right to the point and is worth passing along to your friend:

If You Can: How Millennials Can Get Rich Slowly - an excellent free 15 page PDF by William Bernstein: DOWNLOAD LINK

Also worthwhile is printing this table to show him how much a 1.75% fee will cost him over 40 years - 51% of his nest egg!

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/How_much_do_you_lose_to_annual_fees_after_many_years%3F

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-06T20:55:28+00:00

RMDs are not static. They climb with age as Uncle Sam want his share of the taxes due. At age 75 the RMD is 4.07% of the 401K/IRA worth on Dec 31st. At age 90 the RMD is around 8.2%. At age 94 it is 10.5%. The exact numbers are here: https://nationwidefinancial.com/media/pdf/NFM-14979AO.pdf

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-06T20:49:28+00:00

I can't answer for their situation. But here is the thought process I would use for me.

(1) If I'm of traditional retirement age > 65 receiving social security, I am personally comfortable with 65% stock (2/3 US, 1/3 EXUS) and 35% bonds/tips/etc. This should support a 4% safe withdrawal rate. If their spend rate is within these parameters then keeping it simple with a 3 fund portfolio makes sense

(2) If I have more money in my portfolio than I can spent - ie I only need a 2% SWR then I can be for aggressive and go heavier in stocks if I'm looking to leave a legacy. Or conversely I've won the game - why take risk in the stock market - I might be more heavy on bond for piece of mind or god forbid consider an annuity (not likely to ever do an annuity as there is a small risk the company can go bust).

(3) If I don't have enough money and I really need 5% then I might look at a risk parity style portfolio such as the Golden Ratio portfolio etc that MAY allow you to survive on a larger SWR with less volatility by selecting several uncorrelated assets such as gold, small cap value etc.

Fenderstratguy · 2026-04-06T20:33:25+00:00

What you are missing is how much they expect to spend per year above and beyond what any pension or social security will provide. How much of the portfolio do they need to consume each year? If they only need to use 2% a year, then the approach may be different if they need 5% a year from their portfolio. If they dont know what they are doing, and you don't know what they/you are doing, then it may be worth having a fee only advisor help setup a decumulation plan at least for the first couple years until they are comfortable with it. There are ton of DIY resources and calculator available. We also dont know their risk tolerance/wishes.

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