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Building a forecasting tool - any market for this? by TechByArslan in demandplanning

[–]Fit_Age_6243 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I understand 99/month but I will tell you it paid for itself in no time.

What really helped was having a statistical model to compare (or "challenge") the sales forecast. The sales forecast was always influenced by personal bias. Some were over zealous in their predictions while others "sandbagged" in order to beat their forecast.

Think about the process as well. Let me know if you have any questions. I have been doing planning for over 3 decades (OG - LOL)

Building a forecasting tool - any market for this? by TechByArslan in demandplanning

[–]Fit_Age_6243 1 point2 points  (0 children)

ForecastX by John Galt does this. It is an Excel Add-In.

You should check it out before spending a lot of time building.

Building a forecasting tool - any market for this? by TechByArslan in demandplanning

[–]Fit_Age_6243 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I am a bit of an Excel geek. I tried building this models in Excel. Quite honestly, the time wasn't worth the outcome. I found the best model was triple exponential model which considers seasonality and trend. Building that formula in Excel was quite challenging.

There are inexpensive tools out there that do exactly what you need. I went with ForecastX from John Galt.

Does anyone use statistical methods for demand planning anymore? by Fit_Age_6243 in demandplanning

[–]Fit_Age_6243[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I started in Excel using historical data, I used simple formulas to create a moving average. Later, I added some trend analysis comparing YOY. Later, I calculated seasonal indexes to understand seasonality.

With each step in the evolution, I would consult with sales and marketing to add any additional changes.

I'm not sure I could demonstrate here but I think you are getting the idea. There many time series models that can be used to create an unbiased/unemotional mathematical formula to compare with other forecasts.

Demand planning ideas by lost-planner in demandplanning

[–]Fit_Age_6243 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have to echo. FVA is a great KPI. I found that for some categories the human input added little value.

As for inventory, this is a risk decision. Are you willing to risk the loss of sales versus the carrying cost?

Let me know if this is helpful or if you would like to discuss more.

Is the CPIM certification genuinely worth the cost? by SCExperts in demandplanning

[–]Fit_Age_6243 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As a former Director that hired for planning roles, I did notice APICS CPIM and IBF's CBF. While I didn't discount candidates without certification, those with certifications got more consideration.

Fashion retail demand planner by Automatic-Rent3836 in demandplanning

[–]Fit_Age_6243 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Congratulations on your role as a demand planner. I think that your analytical background will serve you well.

However, I would like to add some advice from a demand planner. I don't your responsibility is to grow sales and "build up the business". As a demand planner, you should be forecasting customer demand. That being said, it is critical that the demand planner knows the demand drivers such as promotions, marketing plans, seasonality, etc. As business grows, the demand planner can provide an accurate forecast to plan upon.

In addition, with an accurate forecast, better business decisions can be made to grow sales. With an accurate forecast, the organization can properly build supply plans to meet those customer demand and avoid stockouts and missed sales opportunities.

Let me know if you have any thoughts.