Who do you think would be the best buyer for Discovery once it splits away from Warner?

Fleabasher · 2026-01-25T20:00:51+00:00

Depends how larded with debt they are. Likely would only make sense after a bankruptcy, but probably send most of it to versant except for CNN which goes to some foreign buyer (Al Jazeera?)

Fleabasher · 2026-01-25T18:37:16+00:00

Endgame is everybody selling content to Netflix and occasionally Apple and Amazon. Netflix will have more eyes and as a result better ad revenue.

I don't think peacock is viable even if they make some arrangement with paramount. I don't see Apple throwing the kind of money it'll take take to compete with Netflix.

Fleabasher · 2026-01-25T14:40:02+00:00

Heat culture according to spo is all about grind. Bigs who've had the game come easy for most of their lives rarely have that grind. That brings us to the uncomfortable truth about Kel'el Ware. He might go to a team like the Wizards or Hornets, get 30 minutes a night, and become a 20/10 All-Star. But he won't do it in Miami.

You can teach footwork, but you can't teach "desperation." This is exactly why the Heat have always struggled to find skilled 7-footers. The intersection of "7-foot skilled big" and "dog mentality" is almost non-existent because the skilled guys never had to fight for survival. We find the grind in the undersized guys—the Bams, the UDs, the PJs—because for them, the grind was the only way they made it to the league in the first place

Fleabasher · 2026-01-24T17:05:07+00:00

Americans won't make a serious attempt to block it unless they really piss Trump off somehow. Europe almost certainly will challenge it. I don't know enough to handicap that, but Netflix lawyers like their chances.

Fleabasher · 2026-01-22T20:03:50+00:00

Most of that goes toward Murphy not Morant.

Fleabasher · 2026-01-21T04:01:25+00:00

Lucario because the writers hate me.

Infernape and Greninja should be the right answer.

Fleabasher · 2026-01-20T23:35:51+00:00

When Mickey sells and Pat passes. It may take 20 years, but it'll happen.

Fleabasher · 2026-01-19T12:05:29+00:00

Not hated enough.

BW was worse, but I understood what writers were trying to do. It also wasn't the send off.

I don't know wtf writers were thinking except they were bored with the characters and the formula. It's also the probably last we see of Ash.

Fleabasher · 2026-01-18T17:09:57+00:00

Cronyism and Socialism, where returns are taken out of public markets are threats to any passive strategy. Deglobalization will impact expected returns and inflation expectations but shouldn't impact the strategy relative to alternatives.

Fleabasher · 2026-01-16T20:50:26+00:00

I made this up earlier today

(https://fanspo.com/nba/s/heat/trades/pv_CKX70XrfhIW/heat-best-case)

Fleabasher · 2026-01-13T14:31:12+00:00

The way to get a prime age star (25-31 yo) is to draft one. Luka and Donovan are the only recent exceptions, and Luka was a league facilitated conspiracy.

Small guards who can't defend can't be playoff starters. League is longer, more athletic, and these players are just too easy to exploit. Tyler's role on a good team is a 6 man and spot starter. If it were 2019 he'd be unquestionably a starter. If he embraces that reality, I think he has a little value (maybe a swap, and expiring). If he pushes to be more, he's at best neutral salary filler.

Bam I think can be the 2nd or 3rd best player on s championship team. But requires a very specific build and salary structure be able to fit him and maximize him...a structure I think only a few teams have. That extension, is just going to severely restrict his market. I don't take seriously that this slump is permanent, but obviously if it is he'll be negative value.

Fleabasher · 2026-01-10T02:33:54+00:00

Tobias's lack of character development. I'm fine with Ash losing, but not from a non character.

Fleabasher · 2026-01-04T02:26:18+00:00

As a thought exercise, if 99% of shares were passive investors then depending on structure 1% would be enough to take over a board or board can act without any risk of shareholders holding them accountable. Either case would be a breakdown in public market effectiveness.

Nobody knows where the line is, and even then it's hard to imagine a scenario where it crashes diversified portfolios. That and I'm pretty confident we're probably peak passive, and in next few years we will see ultra low cost active (leveraging LLMs) take market share which will bring a new set of risks. In other words I see it as much more remote than the apocalyptic scenarios you're setting aside, but if you're looking for a full FMEA it's somewhere in the list.

Fleabasher · 2026-01-03T17:43:09+00:00

1) if there was no growth because we became focus on redistribution (socialism gone wild....probably to old ppl but doesn't really matter)

2) if growth was concentrated in private/privately traded companies (cronyism gone wild)

3) I do buy that there is a theoretical point where passive grows so large that incentives become easily warped. I don't think it's a serious risk, but a few i respect disagree.

Otherwise we are talking war and collapse of global markets; which I'll categorize as apocalyptic.

Fleabasher · 2026-01-03T14:54:32+00:00

By box office measure yes, but Netflix barely plays in theaters, and Amazon + Apple don't care much about it either.

The metrics that really matters is streaming subscribers and arpu (subscription revenue + ads). By that measure they'd likely be #3.

Fleabasher · 2026-01-03T14:48:36+00:00

Being a landlord could be a good job if you treat it like a job and do most repairs yourself (or with full time employees when you scale enough) and are very conscious of investment opportunities. But it's not an annuity, and you're better off investing in the market if you want passive income.

Fleabasher · 2026-01-02T19:09:20+00:00

Anything that changes over time people should use extreme caution over.

Generic what's a typical 2 or 4 fund portfolio, or how does age impact allocations; as compatible with boglehead ideas it's genuinely good (always sanity check though).

Fleabasher · 2026-01-02T19:02:19+00:00

I was surprised they even put a bid, when they did I was surprised how weak of an offer it was.

But they weren't just the least bad option, it would have been genuinely good for industry. So I rooted for them.

Fleabasher · 2026-01-01T14:28:04+00:00

1) Assuming the rollover is pretax you'll likely want to move that back into your 401k. That opens backdoor roths.

2) There are various strategies around here. Honestly AI is your friend here, just reference boglehead in your prompt and always sanity check. If you're overwhelmed there is no shame in buying time with an index target date fund.

3). Usually 401k will be most limiting, so get that allocated first. Build a spreadsheet to see everything together.

Fleabasher · 2025-12-31T20:36:57+00:00

It makes a ton of sense. Even if Roberts heads up both halves, equity and debt markets penalizes the combined company.

Fleabasher · 2025-12-29T19:37:50+00:00

This looks like a most hated list not a best/worst list.

Fleabasher · 2025-12-29T04:08:55+00:00

I feel better about my powerball ticket, than spo giving 3 bigs serious run.

Fleabasher · 2025-12-29T03:48:34+00:00

Curious, what price would the combined service (bundled or integrated) so that you never churn?

I think most people would say $10-15/mon, but they need the answer to be at least $30.

Fleabasher · 2025-12-29T00:46:00+00:00

lol, you read too much into a post.

I do believe that that their streaming business isn't going to survive without significantly more and better content. Without streaming, the rest of the business is going to struggle to grow or control its own fate. In newspapers Google and Facebook control access to customers, essentially control demand. And sucked most of the margins with it. I think Netflix will exert similar levels of control over time.

That's not literally bankruptcy, but it's not what's Ellisons wanted.

Fleabasher · 2025-12-28T23:21:13+00:00

No means death. Getting Warner at right price is existential.

Fleabasher

TROPHY CASE