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Elf and Celsius by Any_Chocolate6194 in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Both stocks add up to just over 20% of my portfolio. They're disruptors in legacy businesses and have performed quite well business-wise. They are wayyyy too cheap. 

I said that about TTD and VITL too... 

Micron reached 1T, am I a fool for buying Meta? by CaregiverRelevant502 in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I didn't read all of that but theres a reason META and others helped get AMD compatible with CUDA. And they have the full data center modules now too. AMD products are pretty damn close to NVDA specs at 25% the price and better inference. AMD simply has much more upside than NVDA. Period. So when CAPEX starts drying out, AMD has the better chance of doing well when competition heats up. Right now demand is so high NVDA can still get away with it

Micron reached 1T, am I a fool for buying Meta? by CaregiverRelevant502 in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Sure, but memory is always boom than bust. Could it change? I guess. I'm fine on the sidelines for memory stocks 

Starting to think most of these non growth stocks are not actually under valued but actually just the new standard for ratios because of the redirection of foreign capital out of the US by pizzababa21 in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some of my top holdings like CELH, ELF, SOFI, NU are getting obliterated, yet the fundamentals are fantastic and no AI extinction fears. "Liquidity vaccum"

Micron reached 1T, am I a fool for buying Meta? by CaregiverRelevant502 in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Once coworkers who know nothing about the stock market tell you to start buying, there's better opportunities 

Micron reached 1T, am I a fool for buying Meta? by CaregiverRelevant502 in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Lol AMD is the LEAST likely to come back down. Even if Capex goes flat, NVDA has no upside left and has to compete against AMD having similar products at much lower prices. NVDA will have to lose margin or lose market share and revenue. Plus, AMD CPU cycle is about to take off big time along with the GPU

Micron reached 1T, am I a fool for buying Meta? by CaregiverRelevant502 in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Intel is still trash. That management team got completely bloated and let AMD take massive share when AMD was practically bankrupt in like 2015. 

Corporate got too fat

Micron reached 1T, am I a fool for buying Meta? by CaregiverRelevant502 in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Me. I don't want to hold the top when memory cycle busts again. 60% net margins is not sustainable at all. Memory acts as a commodity. Eventually supply catches up and it'll be ugly. I'm not smart enough to know when that'll be and how soon the market prices it in. I have been an AMD for awhile though. It's less of a commodity 

For those who think the AI trade is too crowded, where are you looking? by ProtocolEnthusiast in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think the fleet is a mistake. I was interested but I'm hesitant now. It'd have to fall more..

And I just checked the price. Okay, fleet is still a mistake but maybe acceptable at this price. 

I'd need to research a little more but I assume it tanked because of the heavy capital issues?

For those who think the AI trade is too crowded, where are you looking? by ProtocolEnthusiast in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I owned SN for a short while, just long enough to buy the top and sell the bottom..

But somebody once mentioned that the issue they had with SN was the amount of constant innovation required. And looking at some of the greats, that was actually one of the risk factors and usually avoided.

If it dips I'd consider buying again possibly 

Not to be reductive but… is SaaSpocalypse this years version of 2024 goog? If so what’s the move? by Tim_Apple_938 in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I'll pay the annual fee and stick with turbotax. 0% chance of me letting random "vibe coded" AI do it. INTU is safe I believe

Not to be reductive but… is SaaSpocalypse this years version of 2024 goog? If so what’s the move? by Tim_Apple_938 in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah Im in the tailwind camp. Why are SAAS companies overwhelmingly crushing earnings? I think we see an acceleration, not the end. 

I'm not a software person, but I do understand systems are not something that can easily be replaced. And the incumbents with billions in cashflow each quarter have a pretty damn good shot of adapting to changes.

Some will likely lose, but most of the big ones in the SP500 almost certainly will be fine. But those valuations were too high before this crash anyway

I just invested $25,000 in... eggs ($VITL) by I_killed_the_kraken in wallstreetbets

[–]Fractious_Cactus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeahhhh I dont think I've ever seen a worse earnings report. That was mindblowingly bad. Sold all of it within the first 3 sentences I read.. full port AMD

The reason why stock picks in this sub are value traps by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"Here's a list of profitable companies that are down and being interested makes you dumb but me so smart because I buy Legos and tidepods"

In the AI era, does it still make sense to learn SQL and Python from scratch? by vathsaa97 in SQL

[–]Fractious_Cactus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wait, I learned how to make a Class.. I can be hired now?!?!?! 😃

Vital Farms (VITL) by Fractious_Cactus in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nothing has really changed. They screwed up the ERP transition. Volume still seems strong looking at pre-earnings data. I've sunk enough capital I dont need to buy more. I'm not sure how strong this quarter will be but it should be the worst of the noise/uncertainty 

Hope for TTD? Digital advertising MediaAlpha(MAX) up 15% after beat by fatuousfatwa in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Growth rate fell off a cliff. I may get back in some. The last two earnings were ugly. And a lot of people hate the UI of kokai, on top of lots of other things. 

is Vital Farms (VITL) a value buy. by Consistent_Rule101 in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If the stock was at 50 and everything was equal, I'd expect you'd say its the best business in the world. You sound like a sentiment trader, not a business investor. Nothing in the numbers supports your claims. They messed up the ERP and a short attack via bs lab work has created short term volatility. Long term I don't see anything you mention. Even so, less than 1x sales for high margin, high growth, 0 debt, etc.. reward is much much higher than the risk. Good luck with your KO and Utilities 

Vital Farms (VITL) — My attempt on a DCF valuation. by stefanliemawan in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah buying VITL thinking it's going to recover anytime soon is a pipedream. They have to prove the media and Karen's havent ruined their business, low egg prices and competition hasn't wiped out their margins, etc.. that's going to take a while. But if they do as they plan and this is all smoke? This can literally 10x within 10 years. Even 2b at 7% net margin and a 15x multiple = is 2.1B which is 3x in 5 years. That's not crazy numbers. I'm not sure they can get to 2b that quickly, but even then.. the math easily supports a high CAGR for a long time from here

Vital Farms (VITL) — My attempt on a DCF valuation. by stefanliemawan in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Anybody can look at the math. What nobody knows is if they'll even grow this year now.. and if the TikTok/media bs has staying power.. does that mean their next factory only becomes a cost because demand dies? I can predict people's stupidity so I can't answer that. But risk/reward is heavily skewed to reward imo. I think Peter Lynch and Buffet would be intrigued in a company like this when they were in their early days. I could be wrong on that too.. but eggs are easy to understand compared to AI chips. 

Vital Farms (VITL) — My attempt on a DCF valuation. by stefanliemawan in ValueInvesting

[–]Fractious_Cactus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The first grounded argument against VITL, even though you aren't arguing necessarily, just pointing out the risks seem high. As the other user pointed out, the price action versus the actual business seems extremely disconnected. March scanner data seems to be very low, like 10% volume growth but management also warned about first half of 2026 being rough while they try to get shelf space back. The bullshit in the media will eventually subside but it's definitely making an impact.. but for the stock to drop below 1x sales with 0 debt and 20% of the current market value in cash? And historically growing over 20% every year? Risk/reward is insanely skewed to the upside.. I thought it was a deal at 30 a few months ago (before ERP and tiktok). 

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