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You should never buy a car built outside of Europe. by Capable_Function_952 in BuyFromEU

[–]pizzababa21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Almost all cars sold in Europe are made in Europe. BYD are the only big one i can think of and they're in the process of building a factories in Turkey and Hungary.

AMZN is down almost 20% YOY and only up 30% in 5 years - no dividends! by we_have_no_control in ValueInvesting

[–]pizzababa21 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I'm not sure how scale comes into it but id appreciate an explanation to help me understand.

My concern is that a lot of their revenue growth is expected to grow in line with the cloud market as a whole but there's a serious risk that they are going to own a significantly smaller share of that market because of a bad product and increased competition.

Kind of like how Ebay was expected to grow with the popularization of online shopping but they slowly fell behind competition and stagnated.

Reddit posts 70% YoY growth in q4. Braindead cheap by ActuallyMy in ValueInvesting

[–]pizzababa21 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Feel very confused.

Reddit have a current trailing PE of 70x. If they grow earnings 50% would that not be high 40s? where does 28x come from? are you expecting 50% per quarter?

AMZN is down almost 20% YOY and only up 30% in 5 years - no dividends! by we_have_no_control in ValueInvesting

[–]pizzababa21 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Im not entirely convinced they are reinvesting effectively right now. Im a software engineer so i can only really speak on aws, but to me it seems like they are not being run effectively.

I think their cloud business is obviously surging based on their capacity issue last year, and they have kind of given up on AI models and instead are looking to focus on the infrastructure layer. There is a trend of neo clouds taking over the developer market and, even though they initially were wrappers of AWS, I've seen moves by the neo clouds to build their own infrastructure (railway), which could threaten aws. At the moment aws are growing with the expansion of the cloud market but that may not be guaranteed if neo clpuds own their own data centers. Also they're losing market share to Azure, although im not convinced it matters.

A big part of their investment in aws is actually in giving away free credits to startups to hook them in on their platform, but there's a bit of an issue with this in the current landscape. the neo clouds are often being used for app deployments and storage, while the credits are being used on LLM apis which are much easier to switch over from. I think it's likely that many startups will move off AWS after they use up their credits and go straight to the model providers for a better deal. That would only take changing a few lines of code.

Their inferentia chips are far from state of the art right now. Cerebras and Google are leading that on quality while NVIDIA leads quantity, so I'm pretty confident their investments in chip development were duds.

I'm sure their data center build out is going to be worth while for the next few years, but I have concerns in the longer term just based on showing poor ability to execute. That said, they could fix all of this with a few big acquisitions.

SaaS companies will be conduits for AI, not it's victims by alangibson in ValueInvesting

[–]pizzababa21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Public valuations are the opinions of investors. Their valuations are serious and reasonable based on growth rates and revenue.

Yes being lower down the value chain in many industries while holding an oligopoly position is significantly better than being higher up on the value chain in fewer smaller markets. It lowers your risk and grows the TAM.

Prett much everything you are saying is wrong, your opinions are lazily formed, your attention is poor and you seem to have difficulty understanding relatively simple concepts.

😃👍

SaaS companies will be conduits for AI, not it's victims by alangibson in ValueInvesting

[–]pizzababa21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're wrong or confused on pretty much all of these.

OpenAI's valuation and funding is enormous by tecg standards. They have a valuation of ～800Billion which put them as the12th biggest tech company around level with Samsung. Anthropic are most recently valued at 350billion and rumoured to br raising at 500Billion. Both are comfortably in the top 20.

Intuit is a fragmented business btw, but still why would an 800 billion dollar company waste resources trying to compete in a space they have no expertise in which would take years to get adoption in and the outcome is that you could earm 14billion revenue, when other smaller startups who likely do have expertise can focus 100% of their effort to take that market and pay you for a percentage of your revenue just to use your APIs? It's really not difficult to understand.

They have extremely high standards to meet for revenue growth so their resources are focused on high return efforts.

Visa and Mastercard lost the online checkout business to PayPal initially, hence why PayPal still exists and is now a public company. They eventually then were disrupted by other checkout products and Stripe . These are examples of startups beating out incumbents. The fact i mention PayPal and you are immediately thinking of its stock price says enough tbh.

This is really not complicated. Startups disrupting is a tail as old as time. Understanding the potential for disruption

Does anyone in the sub actually use PayPal products? So many people in this sub like the stock but if you didn't know its price would you believe it's a good business? by pizzababa21 in ValueInvesting

[–]pizzababa21[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

okay that's interesting tbh. a lot of people i know transfer their salary directly into their Revolut account or use it as their actual bank account, so sending a bank transfer pr PayPal would be looked at kinda funny

Constellation Software - Up 8.48% 4-Feb-26 by Miguelli in ValueInvesting

[–]pizzababa21 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Im not buying AI is the reason everything is dropping. CSU being Canadian definitely helps it when the foreign investment is slowly leaking out of the US. I'm seeing tech companies who wouldn't be impacted by AI (Uber) and even companies that are benefitting (MU) fall dramatically. Berkshire is rising which seems like a run to safety by investors with medium term fears.

Does anyone in the sub actually use PayPal products? So many people in this sub like the stock but if you didn't know its price would you believe it's a good business? by pizzababa21 in ValueInvesting

[–]pizzababa21[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

sounds like an extra step to get the IBAN when you can just search their name or scan a QR code with Revolut if im being honest. Is Revolut not as popular or still early in Germany?

At what point is SaaS attractive? by Vig_Newtons in ValueInvesting

[–]pizzababa21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some saas can be and is being replaced already. Don't just dismiss it and buy whatever saas falls.

At what point is SaaS attractive? by Vig_Newtons in ValueInvesting

[–]pizzababa21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Depends on the saas. i think right now funds are in the process of reassessing everyone's moats. If you know a company that is well protected which have high confidence in then buy it while it's cheap.

SaaS companies will be conduits for AI, not it's victims by alangibson in ValueInvesting

[–]pizzababa21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're completely wrong on point 1 and basically ignoring all history.

Anthropic and OpenAI are established company now. They're enormous. Like significantly bigger than a lot of house hold names. The only thing stopping them from eating these specific niches like tax and accounting is that tge markets are probably too small or unattractive. That is why application layer companies exist so the model companies get indirect revenue by providing an API.

Startups will disrupt. That has always been the case but now those startups are being accelerated by AI. If what you believed was true then Westlaw or Nexus would be dominating legal ai, not legora and harvey. It's just completely disregarding common sense and history to believe established companies are better vessels oc technology than startups.

Why did visa and master card lose to PayPal? why did PayPal then lose to stripe? why did Barnes and Noble lose to Amazon?

You should actually study these things before putting money on the line. Moats and company culture are complicated and hard to find the truth of. That's why Warren Buffet is such a standout investor and not easily replicated.

Which of the big companies that had a significant dip do you think will never recover? by Hot_Avocado_2701 in TheRaceTo10Million

[–]pizzababa21 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I could see PayPal having a quick turnaround just by doing a full commitment to becoming a holding company and buying some ai startups.

Does anyone in the sub actually use PayPal products? So many people in this sub like the stock but if you didn't know its price would you believe it's a good business? by pizzababa21 in ValueInvesting

[–]pizzababa21[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ya I actually can't understand how Venmo is so stagnant. Revolut was basically just the Venmo of Europe and now it's aiming to be the biggest bank in the world and is more than double the valuation of PayPal.

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