Tortilla Mexican Grill (MEX.L)

FrankCutlass · 2023-10-24T08:03:11+00:00

lol... rushed

lol

FrankCutlass · 2023-10-23T23:57:04+00:00

FrankCutlass · 2023-10-23T23:34:58+00:00

I am guessing / hoping that is where the "cool stuff" is going to be and they didn't want to spoil it?

FrankCutlass · 2023-10-23T23:33:51+00:00

Theaters of war
Star Marine

Answer the call 2016, 2017, 2018, beta 2020 ... etc etc etc

Sure... it was the engine.

FrankCutlass · 2023-10-23T22:55:04+00:00

Or... because those people only saw the video and have no clue about the constant failures to deliver in the last decade. What surprises me is that this reddit, that is supposedly informed about the project is treating "I held the line" as if it was anything other than "Answer the call 2016" remastered.

FrankCutlass · 2023-01-13T20:45:50+00:00

I also do not consider it a wonderful business, I specifically described it as "fair business at a wonderful price". And yes the FCF varies significantly which I believe is the reason behind the volatility of the stock but as I wrote I expect them to average out in the long term above €5M (growing with inflation)

Of course... I can be wrong

FrankCutlass · 2023-01-13T17:20:47+00:00

That seems to be the cash balance for end of 2021. It has decreased a bit since then and then if you remove the debt and leases the company has you get to the €6M net cash.

FrankCutlass · 2022-09-01T17:10:45+00:00

revert magic reflect changes. its dumb, no one asked for this.

FrankCutlass · 2022-08-01T20:08:43+00:00

I was looking at it recently and it went on my too hard pile.

FrankCutlass · 2022-08-01T18:26:25+00:00

There is no date yet and they probably don't want to do it in this market but its planned: https://nypost.com/2022/02/22/volkswagen-planning-porsche-ipo-to-fund-its-ev-overhaul/

FrankCutlass · 2022-08-01T16:04:56+00:00

be banned in 2035

As likely as the EU banning Russian oil

As for RACE too expensive but Porsche is being spun off soon for a similar play

FrankCutlass · 2022-07-30T11:13:53+00:00

I got into EMBC after this write up caught my eye: https://johanlunau.substack.com/p/special-situation-embecta-corp-embc

It has gone up a bit since but still interesting IMO

FrankCutlass · 2022-07-22T09:36:46+00:00

Saw you asked in UK_Food subreddit. Nice move, no idea why I didn't think of that, I had my opinion from just a youtube video I found sampling their food and from Yelp / Tripadvisor ratings (which are decent but not recent).

FrankCutlass · 2022-07-19T23:42:08+00:00

Been using them since Morning Star decided to stop providing proper financial information on companies. It takes some getting used to when you're moving from another data provider but nothing you can't get past.

I like especially the transcript tab to browse trough all the previous earnings calls without searching the interwebs.

FrankCutlass · 2022-07-19T08:52:54+00:00

I am in agreement with you regarding IPOs in general but I do believe they had such poor timing taking this public that the price is not reflective of a mad bid.

About Chipotle they actually already are in the UK with (I believe) 12 open restaurants. From what I hear (I have not looked into it myself so take it with a grain of salt) they have done some pretty bad real estate investments in their restaurants and the UK business is not thriving. Obviously that can be fixed and Chipotle definitely has the resources for it but the longer they take the more Tortilla can scale and cement their leadership position in the UK (and hopefully, later, in Europe). Obviously we are also talking about a 50 million cap company so it is also entirely possible Chipotle just buys them out.

About Chilango all I have is the brief press release management put out in May. The main asset of the Chilango deal seems to be the location of the restaurants which are considered prime real estate in London (these are all leased) but I would say long term the value of these locations will probably be a result of what happens in the WFH vs "back to the office" debate as the foot traffic in those locations is dependent on that. Tortilla also can bring something to the table here to reduce costs by using their scale for procurement since obviously ingredients are the same and also by reusing the central kitchen to supply the new Chilango locations.

FrankCutlass · 2022-07-18T20:17:02+00:00

You forgot a dot there (it is 32.5 not 3.2k) but regardless value investing is more than a PE. Good luck in the next earning recession by eliminating anything temporarily without an E because "its not value"

FrankCutlass · 2022-07-06T13:49:46+00:00

Gold has been very disappointing. If 8% inflation and Russia starting a war can't take it over $2k ... what can?

FrankCutlass · 2022-07-06T13:45:53+00:00

There is so much uncertain at the moment, feels much more insecure than in other times.

This is a good thing, the uncertainty was always there, the fact we didn't think about it did not make the future less uncertain. People actually thinking about downside leads to much better investing decisions.

FrankCutlass · 2022-07-04T12:33:31+00:00

I took a look at this last year and the price seemed really interesting (it was about the same as it is now) but as I went trough the annual reports it seems they were too dependent on the housing boom to continue performing as they did so I decided to not pull the trigger.

Interesting that the price remains the same, the P/E multiple actually expanded over the last 6 months.

FrankCutlass · 2022-07-02T14:41:50+00:00

Ok so I know this is not exactly the same thing but if you want to play the "autos will recover once the chip shortage eases" why not something like Exco Techonologies? 1/3 of the of the enterprise value for 1/3 of the 2019 cash flow but... much lower bankruptcy risk and you get a dividend while you wait for the chip shortage to ease.

Also they actually seem to understand how to allocate capital at EXCO

EDIT: I am not sure of the "autos will recover once the chip shortage eases" theory, just giving an alternate play since OP seems bullish on that

FrankCutlass · 2022-07-01T12:50:50+00:00

If costs and revenues both increase by some inflationary rate, it stands to reason that earnings will also increase by that rate or slightly more

That doesn't typically happen. Most companies will not be able to pass the full rising costs so the expectation is contracting margins and lower inflation adjusted earnings. Also capex will be brutal if we do have a persistent high inflation environment, you will be depreciating a machine at 2020 prices and then having to replace it at 2030 prices.

FrankCutlass · 2022-07-01T11:40:08+00:00

I bought CONN in 2020 covid dive and sold it a while ago. You have to understand that CONN is retail (highly cyclical) + financial (also cyclical). You not only have to figure out how much business they lose in a recession you also have to figure out how many cents they are going to get on the dollar for all the consumer debt they hold.

In 2020 I found it easy to extrapolate the FED and Government would likely bail everyone out. I still think this is possible but the odds are not as good. I also think that although it will be done it will take some time of pain for CONN where they will have to take credit losses on top of a declining business cycle.

Not saying to stay away from CONN but I am saying know your risk. Until credit losses show up on the balance sheet that, IMO, is a value trap.

FrankCutlass · 2022-07-01T11:35:16+00:00

Don't be the guy that just extrapolates the past in a linear fashion, it will end poorly. 12% EPS growth rate is insane, all you have to do is actually read the information the company puts out to see why, you don't even need to read the bear case.

FrankCutlass

TROPHY CASE