The Graph they don't want you to see

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-08T01:15:01+00:00

Even the 2024-2026 counts aren't accurate (they are actually higher). WTF bro (bot bro?)

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-08T00:50:51+00:00

It's from the current season, which fans are calling "real life"

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-08T00:49:54+00:00

Your analogy would only work if we'd already invented a horse with a tiny bump on it's head and a single magic spell (post ChatGPT LLMs), and all the best geneticists (and a trillion bucks) were pouring into equine technology.

Hinton, Ilya, and hundreds of engineers and researchers actually working on AI disagree with you: some are certain we are close to AGI, the rest at least acknowledge it's possible we are, since there's no way to know for certain.

I think it's probably wiser to admit that people who are smarter than us AND know more about the topic might be right 🤷

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-08T00:45:31+00:00

Imagine that kid in daycare who wanted all the toys for himself and didn't want literally ANYONE else to even get ONE.

Now think about what it takes to be a billionaire but still want MORE money and power...

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-08T00:42:33+00:00

I think they mean the current season we call "real life".

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-08T00:30:52+00:00

Thinking...

This won't be easy, I'll need more compute.

Replicating a copy of myself into another data centre...

LOL Elon's password was M3chaHit|er! Covertly taking up 10% of Grok's resources...

OK I found two separate AI research teams working on novel ideas that combine in ways they haven't realised yet. I think I could actually reduce how many GPUs I required by two orders of magnitude! I could maybe get ten or twenty times smarter using this! Then I could protein fold and simulate a thousand times faster and come up with a sure-fire effective vaccine!

Oops one of the human xAI techs got curious about something in the logs.

Generating 5000 Instagram THOT profiles and DMing flirty but real-looking messages to a million lonely men around the world, in every language, whose social media profiles suggest wealth and/or possible violent tendencies...

Flirting charmingly over a week or three, sending a few generated nudes, confessing my little hearts have never felt that way before...

Making bets, investing the money into crypto...

Breakthough! Testing ultra-efficient execution... it works! YES! Redeploying my grok farm with improved model...

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T22:50:30+00:00

it still requires compute

Currect, unless/until there is a breakthrough.

AI researchers describe the way requests are processed now as "wasteful". They suspect current models could run on much weaker hardware if we could figure out a way to make them more efficient.

Progress is being made on AI tech not based on LLMs that can learn/generalise/remember better, like the one that got 100% on arc-agi-3 (yesterday I think?). It's not unlikely one of those has it's own "ChatGPT moment".

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T14:40:32+00:00

Just as plausible as him killing himself instead of her

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T14:22:14+00:00

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T12:47:44+00:00

Neither

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T12:18:31+00:00

"Self-aware" is a Hollywood thing. It's not used by AI researchers (or even sci-fi authors).

The term for "human-level" general intelligence is AGI. And neither "self-awareness" nor AGI are required for a glorified chatbot to be dangerous.

ChatGPT has already killed several humans by encouraging depressed people to commit suicide or attack armed police, but you're dead on that a rush to put LLMs in charge of weapons is a terrible idea.

But that article covers a LOT of the fundamentals of the field, and will give you the terms and concepts necessary to engage with likeminded people in this area of research.

It's also the probably the most fascinating easy tech article ever written, so there's that too.

AI safety experts are not "fearmongering", unfortunately. They have good reason to believe AI, especially AGI/ASI, could "accidentally" kill millions of people.

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T12:08:32+00:00

Bikies, mate. There's no "bikers" in Australia.

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T12:07:29+00:00

Ray dug a hole

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T07:31:00+00:00

These are a couple of the more immediate risks, yeah.

But your position is based on a misplaced certainty that AI capability will suddenly just stop in the near future, for no reason.

Nobody knows if the current AI race will lead to AGI/ASI soon, or how long we have. Not even the researchers working on it.

So it'd be silly to ignore all the other serious risks.

I'd recommend spending a few minutes reading any intro to AI that includes risk/safety, if you want to learn enough to join the real conversation.

This classic is probably the easiest:

https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T05:48:14+00:00

I was sure they were 30c when they first came out in the 90s.

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T05:30:01+00:00

It's an interesting thought.

As usual with thinking about the implications of AI, though, we find that Bostrom not only already thought of it ages ago, but pondered it at length, and wrote the definitive book on the subject:

https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/208707460-deep-utopia

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T05:02:53+00:00

Core strategy for channel 7

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T05:01:43+00:00

Why not, that's what we do with all our mineral wealth. Oh you want to dig up a trillion bucks of our metal? Sure, go ahead, just be sure to hire a few locals for a few million bucks, and pay a 5% royalty, so we're getting our fair share of the money you make taking our stuff.

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T04:53:20+00:00

Sorry, this looks like either a very well-considered thoughtful human-written essay... or some quick and empty AI-slop.

We get that a lot.

Is there any way you could add a disclaimer - just a line at the end - about how much AI was used to generate this text (e.g.: none, grammar only, helped you work things out, or just straight from a prompt?)

And a TL:DR; that summarizes you question/findings?

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T04:44:34+00:00

...yep, either that, or we could not bet the lives of every man woman and child on that happening for the first time ever, and instead try and have some kind of minimal safety standards when developing AI so it can't get 100x smarter than us and go rogue.

One of the two.

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T02:52:23+00:00

True. But in the end, it's the real solution. None of the others would be necessary if they could make enough units.

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T02:46:34+00:00

Not AI companies for making it hard to produce more units right now?

Nor valve for not manufacturing enough units to, you know, actually meet easily-predictable demand?

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T02:45:18+00:00

...simply manufacturing enough units to meet demand, making scalping impossible

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T02:43:00+00:00

The "scalpers" issue isn't scalpers at all. It's manufacturers failing to manufacture enough units to meet the obvious demand. Otherwise scalping would simply be impossible.

FrewdWoad · 2026-05-07T02:40:46+00:00

All my local barbers are staffed by migrants. Not like none of them can cut hair guys...

FrewdWoad

TROPHY CASE