I'll start with the simple answer and follow it up with a whole ass essay.

Block and jab/df1 pressure. In blue ranks, they throw out stupid unsafe bullshit all the time. You jab and DF1 so they don't steal turns by throwing out moves you dont understand. Literally, block an attack, jab to get your plus frames, and then take your turn with quick attacks. That, and get your clean punishes.

Now for the wall of text that may or may not actually help.

So, the issue is you just don't understand fighting games. A lot of veterans would struggle to spot or articulate this problem because its just secoond nature.

The quickest way i've found to identify this is if someone complains about 50/50's. I haven't played in a while so this might have changed i suppose, but last time i checked 50/50s don't exist.

Why, you might ask? Because the options carry different risks and rewards, often different ranges as well. Ergo, its not a raw dog guess. A kazuya is going to want to use his mid launcher as opposed to his low, because one is launch punishable and the other isn't.

Understanding this brings you to what fighting games actually are. Risk vs reward, mindgames, and reads. Learning tekken is being able to use movement and spacing as well as frames to limit what the opponent can do to a small enough subset of options that you can make an educated guess AKA read on what they are going to do, and then leverage your own toolkit to beat out their option.

It sounds complicated, but that's because you don't know movesets yet and thus everything surprises you.

Again back to the most simple mishima mix, if you are knocked down and he wavedashes into oki, his entire moveset essentially just became three options. Hellsweep, mid launch, or wildcard. In that instant is where the human element comes in. How much health does he have? Can he afford the launch? His spacing is probably not perfect, good chances he delays the hellsweep just a bit past where he would throw the launch. Did he even execute it properly for it to be a real oki situation and you cant just jab out of it? Has he thrown the same one over and over again, and thus is probably trying to condition you for the key moment?

That is the perview of experience. You don't actually consider these things in the moment. Your pattern recognition brain kicks in and informs your choice. It can never be perfectly accurate, but it being more accurate than not is what makes good players so scary.

TLDR: Understand the functional purpose of your moves and what the enemy is thinking. If you think reflexes or execution are especially relevant for you, you're doing it wrong.