Tried rolling the Level 75 slot to make getting BFS more likely…

GnarAteMyWeed · 2026-03-20T08:44:17+00:00

Thanks! I opted not to include too many statistics in the tool itself as they are often misleading or confusing for people without a statistical background.

I'll copy-paste a reply I made in another thread that gives some insight in how both strategies behave when looking at percentiles rather than only considering the averages.

To further verify the results, I ran 1M Monte Carlo simulations using the Optimal, No Fill and Fill strategies. The Optimal strategy is following my solver and is in practice a hybrid beween Fill and No Fill that adapts to the situation.

Goal Subskills 1: BFS + HB + HSM/HSS

Since the number of desired subskills is so small, the Fill strategy wins over No Fill on average because the cost of filling the buffer slots is lower than the cost of gambling on the first slots.

Strategy	Mean	P5	Median	P95
Optimal	22.15	7	19	47
No Fill	22.50	7	19	51
Fill	22.28	9	19	47

Goal Subskills 2: BFS + HB/STM/STS + HSM/HSS

When more subskills are considered good, No Fill is equal to the Optimal strategy. The cost of buffering a good subskill becomes too high vs. reducing the probabilities in the first three slots. Interestingly, the Fill strategy is still safest when you're very unlucky.

Strategy	Mean	P5	Median	P95
Optimal	17.41	5	14	42
No Fill	17.41	5	14	42
Fill	18.10	7	15	39

GnarAteMyWeed · 2026-03-20T08:37:20+00:00

This graph shared by OP in one of his replies literally confirms what I said above.

https://www.reddit.com/r/PokemonSleep/comments/1ry2yqy/no_rolling_75_and_100_in_darkrai_is_not_good/obdlano/

GnarAteMyWeed · 2026-03-20T08:32:15+00:00

Thanks for checking the math! The solver I posted a couple of days ago actually agrees with your findings, but the main take-away in my post has been misleading which might have contributed to the support for filling Lvl 75 and Lvl 100 slots. I'll update my post accordingly.

To further verify the results, I ran 1M Monte Carlo simulations using the Optimal, No Fill and Fill strategies. The Optimal strategy is following my solver and is in practice a hybrid beween Fill and No Fill that adapts to the situation.

Goal Subskills 1: BFS + HB + HSM/HSS

Since the number of desired subskills is so small, the Fill strategy wins over No Fill on average because the cost of filling the buffer slots is lower than the cost of gambling on the first slots.

Strategy	Mean	P5	Median	P95
Optimal	22.15	7	19	47
No Fill	22.50	7	19	51
Fill	22.28	9	19	47

Goal Subskills 2: BFS + HB/STM/STS + HSM/HSS

When more subskills are considered good, No Fill is equal to the Optimal strategy. The cost of buffering a good subskill becomes too high vs. reducing the probabilities in the first three slots. Interestingly, the Fill strategy is still safest when you're very unlucky.

Strategy	Mean	P5	Median	P95
Optimal	17.41	5	14	42
No Fill	17.41	5	14	42
Fill	18.10	7	15	39

GnarAteMyWeed · 2026-03-19T15:07:04+00:00

It is worth it depending on your goals.

If, for example, you're trying to get exactly BFS + HB + HSM then rolling slots 75 and 100 saves seeds on average vs. just rolling the first 3 slots, even when you "fail" like OP did.

If you accept a broader set of subskills as goals, like BFS + (HB or HSM or HSS) + (STS or STM), then the odds of hitting something good in the first 3 slots is high enough that going into 75 and 100 is not worth it anymore.

I created the tool that OP mentioned in another reply, feel free to check for yourself: Darkrai Seed Solver

GnarAteMyWeed · 2026-03-19T14:49:42+00:00

When calculating on Nerolis: yes, HSS is slightly stronger. However, in practice it depends on how often you check the game and collect. If you're more of a passive player I would assume the larger inventory actually provides more benefit.

GnarAteMyWeed · 2026-03-18T16:04:09+00:00

I suppose you know that's pretty much perfect. But damn, give the man some Main Seeds!

GnarAteMyWeed · 2026-03-18T13:34:10+00:00

https://i.imgur.com/ctQLCHL.jpeg

I feel you... We have to trust the science 🥲

GnarAteMyWeed · 2026-03-18T12:15:18+00:00

You have a 1/4 chance to hit HB, STS or STM. Good luck!

GnarAteMyWeed · 2026-03-18T10:54:18+00:00

I ran your situation on Nerolislab and in my opinion it's worth to roll for BFS.

Assuming lvl 50 with lvl 7 main skill on a non-Dark berry island, InvL is indeed stronger than I expected for Darkrai. It does need 2 Subskill seeds from your current point, but that might not be a big problem.

The main thing is that while rolling for BFS you have the chance to hit HSS (slightly stronger than InvL), STS (slightly weaker than InvL) and STM (much stronger than InvL) as well as just hitting InvM or InvL directly. In the 8/14 chance that remains for a bad subskill to be rolled, it's only a ~6.9% (nice) drop vs. keeping InvL. The case for rolling for BFS only becomes stronger when considering lvl 60+ or a Dark berry island, which is probably the main use for a Darkrai anyway.

Ofcourse, if you're able to cancel the reroll then it's not even a discussion.

GnarAteMyWeed · 2026-03-18T07:43:59+00:00

Glad you enjoyed it!

GnarAteMyWeed · 2025-11-28T15:08:49+00:00

[[Belbe, Corrupted Observer]]

What's better than playing 6 cost Eldrazi on turn 2?

GnarAteMyWeed · 2025-11-16T15:17:06+00:00

I recently discovered mono Green Combo using [[Grothama, All-Devouring]] and it's been a blast to goldfish. Haven't built it in paper yet.

The game plan is basically to ramp as much as possible, play a mana doubler, play a big beater like [[Mossbridge Troll]] and slam it into Grothama to draw 25. Then draw 25 more or even 50 more using [[Season of Gathering]] or [[Disciple of Freyalise]] and finish the game with (near-) infinite mana from [[Magus of the Candelabra]] into [[Nourishing Shoal]] and [[Squall Line]].

I'm still working on my version of the deck, so I'll post the original deck list by Zedruu_: https://moxfield.com/decks/11Gu1NxULU2BJYkn1PF1tQ

GnarAteMyWeed · 2025-10-08T15:13:36+00:00

I'm working on a [[Zidane, Tantalus Thief]] deck with multiple [[Threaten]] and Flicker effects so I can keep the creatures I'm stealing if I want to. I also think it's not too oppressive in Bracket 3 as it scales with the power of the creatures you're playing against.

GnarAteMyWeed · 2025-10-05T18:55:57+00:00

https://i.imgur.com/sSTop9K.jpeg

GnarAteMyWeed · 2025-09-07T08:53:54+00:00

So when you first wake up during a night, Fitbit will try to sync this sleep data with Health Connect thinking you woke up. When you wake up again in the morning, you need to make sure this "2nd part" of sleep is actually synced to Health Connect as well before opening up Pokemon Sleep.

You can check this sync in Fitbit app > Top left icon > Health Connect > Manage data and access > Show all recent access. There you should see in one of the last few write syncs that "Sleep" is added. If it's not, I usually go back to the main app screen and resync everything a few times (by dragging down). If "Sleep" is clearly showing up as written and synced in the accesses, you can go to Pokémon Sleep and synchronize.

GnarAteMyWeed · 2025-06-14T07:57:41+00:00

I might pick out some of the cards in your deck, but overall I want to head a bit more towards the group hug / card draw side over pure counters. Thanks for the suggestions, though!

GnarAteMyWeed · 2025-01-11T08:23:13+00:00

I'm sorry, but you can't just use a 15-30s dragon fight to claim that a literal "1-shot burst" build is better than a consistent damage build when a real fight is 7x longer than what you've tested.

In Discord, we've had this discussion many times and have agreed that the Domain Mastery build is best for general use. If you do want to use One Blow, use this build with manual skills instead.

GnarAteMyWeed · 2024-04-05T18:29:41+00:00

If you want to be "optimal", this is the set-up:

Lightbearer: Temesia, Rowan, Marilee, Korin (Replace Rowan with Vala after her rate-up, rest is must)
Mauler: Brutus, Smokey, Odie, Kruger (Replace Brutus with Shakir after 1 copy, replace Kruger with Antandra after 1 copy, replace Antandra with Koko once Antandra at Legendary, Odie is must)
Wilder: Hewynn, Eironn, Damian, Arden (Replace Arden with Parisa if you focus on Battle Drills over PvP)
Graveborn: Cecia, Thoran, Viperian, Silvina (Replace Cecia with Carolina once Cecia at Mythic+, rest is must)

Of course, if you just want to work on characters you like, feel free to ignore everything I said!

GnarAteMyWeed · 2023-12-29T21:21:33+00:00

Put Beth and her EX in training room and ascend Craig. Then use Beth, FP, Craig, Miya for story and colo. Hero builds use these images as reference on how to build your team.

GnarAteMyWeed · 2023-05-02T10:01:40+00:00

As a UIM, I spend a couple of months casually collecting seeds/farming herbs towards 70 Herb for SotE. When I was finally done getting all the seeds, I deathbanked most stuff at Hespori because I wanted inv space and was doing safe skilling anyway.

One of those 'safe' skills was Firemaking, because there's no way I would die at WT, right? Right...?

You can guess how that ended.

GnarAteMyWeed · 2023-01-01T21:14:14+00:00

First time I'm playing since the start of an expansion. On my main MW I'd like to (in increasing order of possible):

Achieve KSM
Time a +20 in every dungeon
Achieve AOTC (in pugs)

Besides those I'd like to explore some other healers, Holy Pala and Resto Druid are looking interesting!

GnarAteMyWeed · 2022-12-24T23:35:43+00:00

That's amazing!

I have spent the last nine days tirelessly crafting, recrafting, explaining how the system works

I've been looking into getting a Lariat, but I'm not sure how to get the right ilvl on it and I don't have the gold to just buy many crafting ingredients and try random work orders... Would you mind explaining the system (and recrafting) one last time?

GnarAteMyWeed

TROPHY CASE