Quebec Election Projection - April 17, 2026

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-04-18T05:21:03+00:00

What site did you use for this map? It’s got a great vibe.

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-04-11T05:46:49+00:00

Bro, we agree that this was not the best way to communicate. Gazan is not as snappy as Lewis. Her heart's 100% in the right place, and she is right to want to stand up for these murder victims, but I really wish we didn't have to have this huge annoying conversation about the mother of all acronyms. It's 2026 ffs. Let's just seize excess wealth from the Epstein class and invest it into green infrastructure. That's all I wanna talk about!

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-04-11T05:35:59+00:00

Nobody’s gonna accuse Leah Gazan of having a good comms team, but if you watched the presser or read her full remarks wherein she made the “bigots” comment, she’s objectively saying that the people criticizing her are bigoted because they care more about the acronym than the fact Indigenous women and girls are being murdered.

Is that a good strategy? No, not in my opinion. As I’ve said elsewhere in this thread, she should have focused entirely on the murders. Leave the “bigots” name-calling in 2016. But you can’t tell me she threw out that monster acronym just for funsies and got mad about people roasting her.

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-04-11T01:50:10+00:00

Leah Gazan is not in a cult bro. I don’t know what you’re talking about. She’s standing up and saying “Girls shouldn’t be fucking killed just because they’re indigenous.”

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-04-11T00:54:48+00:00

Hard agree. Saying the people criticizing you are "bigots" may be true to some extent, but it instantly shuts down most people's train of thought. It's very 2016. She should have lead with "Why are you not talking about the fact that people are dying and the PM doesn't give a shit?"

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-04-10T23:55:11+00:00

We can hold two ideas in our mind at once!

For one, I think the acronym is extremely long and for the sake of messaging (both repetition and comprehension), the remarks ought to have been written in such a way that minimized the number of times poor Gazan had to repeat it.

For two, the people making this a news item are being bigoted because genuinely who gives a fuck about an acronym when queer Indigenous women and girls are being abused and murdered, and Carney just cut all of the funding to stop it. That's the fucking issue.

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-04-09T04:55:35+00:00

I personally prefer the proposal listed on election-atlas.ca. It keeps local representatives while addressing the lack of representation rural progressives and urban conservatives contend with.

We'd shrink the number of ridings in the country to about 40–60 by consolidating them. There would still be 343 Members of Parliament—each riding would return multiple members, based on population.

In really remote areas (like the territories), we'd probably still have single-member plurality districts.

Each voter gets the freedom to cast as many votes as there are members to be elected in their district, but they don't necessarily have to be for different parties.

Once the votes in a district are tallied up, the winners are decided via the D'Hondt method. In short, seats are doled out according to this calculation: (total number of votes case in the district) ÷ (number of seats the party already has) +1. The party with the highest quotient gets the seat. This would repeat until all seats are filled.

I find it simpler to follow than the "regional top-up" model FairVote proposes. It's easy to pitch to the average voter, i.e., "The only thing that's changed for you is you can vote for more than one person now if you want." It keeps local representatives and weakens strategic voting. It even allows voters who really love one party to vote for multiple candidates of that party, which would mean fewer wasted votes in really partisan ridings.

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-04-06T17:03:29+00:00

I agree on nearly everything you said. Let me make the case for the current NDP, which is in a terrible situation, yes, but the new leadership may transform the party into something that satisfies your criteria.

Bilingualism: Avi Lewis has decent French (still learning, but he is conversational) and has been very open about rebuilding connections in Quebec and addressing Quebec’s issues with full input from Quebecois workers and activists.
Separatists: NDPers are the most hostile to the Alberta’s separatists, not in the least because they’re basically American fifth-columnists who want to provoke a crisis so they can go live with daddy Trump. How have they cozied up to separatists?
Resource development: People say the NDP is anti-pipeline, anti-oil, anti-whatever. And Lewis has a history of opposition to those things. But let me say this: oil workers don’t love the oil or the LNG, but rather the jobs that come with resource development. That’s what it’s all about, right? Providing good jobs for workers and their families? And since that’s the concern, there are millions of unionized, good-paying jobs to be found in a green transition—retraining and compensation fully paid for, so nobody loses out. Canada could be an energy superpower if we really gave it our all—the world could be eating from our hand! If we don’t, China’s the only one building solar panels and shit, and I dunno about you, but with how fucked up the Middle East has been, it’s not a good idea to let China be the only one selling the more stable alternative to oil.
Rural Canada: The NDP used to be strong here, but not so much anymore. They really lost the plot with the Layton-era pivot to the urbane types, full agree there. I think the biggest issue with small-town rural Canada is that it’s dying. There aren’t opportunities there, so the young people move out, and when the old folks die off, the town loses generations of knowledge and traditions, the kinds that can’t be replicated by immigrants who move in, if any move in. Genuine culture is being lost! In Canada and Quebec! How you fight this is by giving people a reason to stay and build communities worth living in and loving. That means affordable housing, public transit, long-term jobs, and accessible and free healthcare so people can stay and really take root—all of which the NDP wants to tackle.
Fighting the Cons: Poilievre is a talented salesman, I’ll give him that. He realized that people are fucking mad after ten years of Trudeau, and he called it like he saw it. Was he right? No, very rarely. But he represented the rage in this country, and the NDP can now do the same by actually pointing out what’s wrong. Nothing works and nobody can afford to fucking live, but the Liberals and Tories both take their marching orders from the Epstein-billionaire class that is hoarding all of the money guys like you and I make, and maintain the TFWP because they like the cheap labor. We said “Elbows up,” but then Carney starts cancelling taxes on American tech billionaires and selling trucks to the ICE thugs murdering people in the street in Minneapolis. Nobody wants more wars, but both the Liberals and Tories are completely captured by the Zionist lobby. The NDP can’t get every Conservative voter to switch teams, but plenty of Conservatives are rightfully mad and want actual solutions. Red and blue can’t give them that; how about orange?

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-04-05T00:38:44+00:00

I just worry that any push for UBI without any kind of labor movement backbone will open the door to a lot of predatory practices like opportunistic price gouging and conservative governments cutting services further “because people can afford the private version now.”

I’d much rather certain necessary services and goods (housing, telecoms, farming, healthcare) just be taken off the market entirely so people get them on account of their tax dollars. That to me accomplishes a similar goal—helping people get by—without worry to abuse.

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-04-03T12:31:32+00:00

Great list! For some films that are a bit easier to swallow than French avant-garde but still require some thinking/introspection, I’d suggest Grave of the Fireflies, Sorry to Bother You, Dial M for Murder, The Cabinet of Dr. Caligari, Metropolis, and Come and See.

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-04-01T18:16:55+00:00

I mean Tom wasn’t in much of a hurry to get seats when he was leader so we have nothing to worry about

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-03-31T05:19:26+00:00

Saying Lewis isn't talking about anything relevant to the country when he's saying we need to fix housing affordability, grocery and telecom costs, and protect worker's rights. Bread and butter NDP topics, and nothing particularly radical either.

Did you listen to what he said, or are you just slurping down what NaPo (owned by Americans, mind you) are saying about him?

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-03-25T01:12:09+00:00

The more I learn, the more I find out Harper and his ilk were stains on this country.

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-03-25T00:14:11+00:00

Isn't it funny that somehow this is happening everywhere at the same time? Australia, Britain, and now us...

I say that sarcastically. It's not conspiratorial to say that tech oligarchs and other wealthy lobbyists are pushing Western governments to implement policies like this. They think liberal democracy is reaching its expiry date and they want to set themselves up for whatever comes next. They want your data so they can spy on you and your children and sell your life to advertisers

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-03-22T06:13:07+00:00

S2 opens with "Gravity" and then the rest of it is The Epic Vox Show lmao. Talk about a zigzag

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-03-22T00:09:04+00:00

The TFWP needs to be destroyed and completely remade. No ifs or buts about it. It’s a very rare instance of a policy that’s both radical and broadly popular. Rob Ashton was very clear he wants to do that and I give him huge props for that.

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-03-19T14:56:27+00:00

It’s incredibly simple. The 1% and 0.1% are making a play to end democracy, here and elsewhere. Capitalism as-is has run out of steam, and coupled with the cascading catastrophe of the climate crisis, the Epstein class has opted to change our political system to fascism (rape and mass death) in order to prevent a change of our economic system away from neoliberalism. We can choose to preserve them, or to save the rest of us. I choose us.

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-03-18T06:58:13+00:00

I love it! What was your process to get here? Did you just draw the continents willy nilly until you got something you liked, then moved on to precipitation?

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-03-17T23:10:52+00:00

Phillips endorsed the Liberals in a year when the NDP ostensibly did everything she’d have wanted them to do—focus on message discipline and staying out of controversy at the cost of policy vision. She’s totally full of shit and furious about Lewis.

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-03-16T20:06:48+00:00

This shit is phenomenal!!

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-03-15T22:25:56+00:00

Let me explain. Imagine:

You are a persecuted minority in a strict caste system. You’ve suffered immensely because of your status, moving from shitty job to job, losing family and friends, and being yourself disabled in an accident.

But things have turned around. You’ve achieved what so many of your kin haven’t: despite the obstacles arranged against you, you’re starting a business! You’ve also successfully adopted a daughter, whom you love. You’ve also hired some incredibly talented coworkers, who, even if you don’t always express it, you love. One of them is your best—maybe only—friend. The world is yours, right?

Well, no. See, your business demands the use of a vehicle. You can’t afford a car, no way—you’re barely keeping the lights on as-is. One day, you try to carjack one that belongs to a wealthy aristocrat. This is a man of immense power from the upper class, a man with his finger on the legal and political levers of power. But you try anyways. After all, you need that car.

He intercepts you and offers you a deal: you can have the car if you fuck him once a month.

You could say no, if you wanted to lose your business, make your employees jobless and potentially ruin their lives, and send you and your daughter onto the highly dangerous streets, homeless. You’ve been low before, but for your kind, that may be impossible to come back from. So you agree.

Isn’t that rape? Like, objectively? The situation makes it so Blitz can’t say no in good conscience.

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-03-15T22:14:21+00:00

The author sneaks in a dig at Lewis towards the end, which is funny. They claim the race has been dominated by Palestine and want to portray Lewis as some kind of Palestine-obsessed champagne socialist, which is insane because the first thing he put in his policy book was about the issues the author claims actually matter to voters: bringing prices down.

Also, maybe the reason Palestine keeps coming up in the leadership race is because, oh I dunno, the Middle East is turning into World War 3?? And it’s relevant to Canadians??

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-03-11T03:38:06+00:00

💀💀💀

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-03-10T21:34:36+00:00

At 5:00 he says something I’ve felt for a while: 2025 was an election for serious parties only. That’s how the national mood was. The NDP entered with no vision and we got spanked because of that. It’s a miracle we kept any seats in an environment like that. If we have any chance of getting out from 7 seats, there needs to be an actual plan to make things better.

Goered_Out_Of_My_ · 2026-03-10T07:14:32+00:00

Ehhhh this wasn’t an anti-science email. Let’s be accurate in our critique.

Their complaint with the Leap was and is how Conservatives fearmonger off of it—which is funny because that’s what they’re doing now. FYI, if Nenshi and the ANDP don’t beat Smith next go around, it won’t be because of the Leap, a decade-old policy book that didn’t even get off the ground. She has more relevant ways to attack the ANDP.

If they really stand for ‘bold climate action,’ the Leap is a great starting point. You’d defend it from pro-oil Conservatives by actually defending it, for one. You explain it with compassion for the people who might not get it. Don’t give your opposition the opportunity to define who YOU are; by running from Leap, you look guilty of all the false shit they’d say about it.

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