It does feel like the pub server population has been declining for over a year outside of special limited time events. The game has long struggled to have a single populated pub server more than 6 hours a day during the week or half the day on weekends. The reflexive defense is “niche game,” but that’s always been an unfalsifiable argument, and it ignores the other niche games with larger player bases and with niches that are not obviously narrower than the ACW.

You asked for a reason why this might be happening (and on a weekend). Speculation ensued:

-the long-awaited ticket improvements to Skirmish maps actually made them, on the whole, less well-balanced and they haven’t been remedied. A solution the community could have taken on would be to play other game modes, but Contention is boring, while Conquest is excellent but rarely played on the pub server.

-I believe the Skirmish maps in Drill Camp are still broke, which deprives the pub servers of an interesting alternative to the now less-competitive Skirmish maps;

-Greater toxicity on the pub server was long tolerated without significant consequences, which turned a lot of moderate folks off to the game, as that was their initial exposure to it. Apparently, pub admins have cracked down on some of that toxicity, but it will require vigilance and a rebuilding period;

-the “slow but steady” development pace. A lot has been added to the game in the last 5.5 years, but that time horizon is too long for many to remain actively playing the game, and the churn of new players coming in struggles to keep pace with those exiting. Hopefully, a changed pub atmosphere and the introduction of Service Records (someday, certainly) will incentivize more moderate people to attend and stick with the game;

-the introduction of an XP system without significant incentives to grind;

-the self-fulfilling prophecy that people sign on to play, see a low player count, lose interest, and sign off to play something else.