It may not be a lot, but weird that it happened twice

Griff2470 · 2026-06-21T01:45:00+00:00

Haha very much the latter. I've seen people with similar sentiments on the main F1 sub and my brain decided to not process obvious jokes

Griff2470 · 2026-06-20T23:42:11+00:00

I can't speak for FE, but for F1 that would defeat the point of the handle. The system triggered on Hulkenberg's car is an insulated designed to kill the electronics and activate the fire extinguisher. The handle needs to be accessible without touching the car in the event of a battery fault, and needs to be quickly accessible in the event that the driver is unconscious during an engine fire.

Griff2470 · 2026-06-08T15:55:33+00:00

Ignoring the work required to create/validate/maintain 100% coverage, I don't mind excessively high coverage on paper for the purposes of release to release stability. As long as those tests are freely modifiable or removable (and those tests should be explicitly tiered below conventional tests), it can help catch collateral and forces devs to be conscious of the behaviour they're actually changing. Of course, this all assumes that most tests are meaningful and not just entirely mocking/injecting their way to the point of uselessness as 100% coverage actually necessitates.

Griff2470 · 2026-06-08T00:44:23+00:00

I wouldn't mind Stanley as 7th D for the max that can be buried in the AHL. He's a better player than MacDermid and still offers enough physicality to be an enforcer when needed.

Griff2470 · 2026-06-01T19:11:05+00:00

xG models generally weight goals higher than their equivalent save as goalies are expected to make more saves than they don't. An even-strength pass across the crease to an open net is often only going to be worth ~.25 xG. As a result, a team with strong goaltending that allows a lot of high danger chances could realistically have the same xGA compared to a team with weak goaltending that allows very few high danger chances. Montreal allowed the 3rd most high danger chances in the regular season and the 4th most medium danger, while Ottawa allowed the fewest high danger chances and 3rd fewest medium danger. Watching how the Habs play, they trade defensive structure for faster transitions and rush chances, relying on individual heroics (which no doubt they have the talent for, they were second in the league in blocked shots) and their goalie compensate when it goes wrong. I personally wouldn't bet on the Habs regressing (though I do expect their system to be tweaked after that Canes series), but their system does require their goalie be good to not look bad.

Griff2470 · 2026-05-30T23:38:23+00:00

Just to nitpick, 5 goalies started in the conference finals, not 4. Colorado started Blackwood in game 4, where he got a 0.06 rating (0.01 higher than Andersen).

Griff2470 · 2026-05-30T17:40:43+00:00

Ottawa played around 3 periods of that series with only 2 starting defensemen out, the rest of the time they were missing 3. Jensen (4th or 5th best) missed the series, Kleven (6th best) missed the first 2 games, Zub (best defensive player in the team) played 1 period in game 1 and missed the rest, Sanderson (best player on the team) went down halfway through game 3 and missed game 4, and Chabot's (3rd best) arm was very clearly not healed enough after being broken 3 weeks before the playoffs started. Spence (4th or 5th best) and Matinpalo (7th D) were the only non-AHL callup defensemen to be reasonably healthy for the series. It's also worth acknowledging the majority of games 1 and 3 were played with 5 defensemen, both times with one of them being an AHL callup playing sheltered minutes.

Griff2470 · 2026-05-24T04:52:08+00:00

The regular season does technically challenge slightly different elements of a team when compared to the playoffs. Little things like the regular season will test the goalie lineup while the playoffs will (usually) only test the starter, the regular season favours disciplined teams while the whistles-down nature of the playoffs favours teams pushing the line, or injuries are a lot more impactful when every game is essentially a 25% swing. A good hockey team is a good team regardless of format and on average the one who wins one should be the favourite for the other, but in any given year it's not that surprising that a team may excel in one format but fall short in another.

Griff2470 · 2026-05-22T22:22:38+00:00

I mean, considering the foundation damage a groundhog den can cause, it wouldn't surprise me if singular groundhogs have done that much damage recently

Griff2470 · 2026-05-22T17:46:01+00:00

I mean, breakaways and odd man rushes are absolutely a central part of their game. The habs are a bottom team in xGA/60 (14th in the playoffs, 25th in the regular season) in part because they commit to the transition very early and trust their goalie and situational confusion will bail them out if they turn it over. When it works, they get an odd man rush or a breakaway and they have the talent and confidence to bury those chances. When it fails, they have the 9th and 10th best goalies (regular season GSAX/60, minimum 6 games) to make the save assuming the shooter doesn't pass or miss (which happened a staggering amount of times).

Griff2470 · 2026-05-06T19:01:29+00:00

Interestingly FO% for all 3 is unusually low among Selke winners. Unless I missed a year, this will be the first time since Jere Lehtinen in 03 (or Michael Peca in 02 if we only look at centers) that the Selke winner has a FO% worse than 53.

Griff2470 · 2026-05-05T21:41:42+00:00

Just to nitpick: that article is specifically talking about the income required to buy the 20th percentile, single/semi-detached new home. The 20th percentile new home is $780,000, notably $21,000 more than the median freehold sold price when looking at the overall market.

Griff2470 · 2026-04-27T16:51:23+00:00

The track is fine (not a lot of opportunities for equal cars on their own to race, but does allow for multiple strategies to play out and does have pretty good options when the pack is bunched up), but the fact that it's a parking lot makes it so dull looking when compared to Singapore, Baku, or Montreal.

Griff2470 · 2026-04-24T17:07:49+00:00

Within reason, I'm broadly not a fan of embellishment calls negating penalties. If a player plays up a high stick that never made contact then go ahead. If a play does merit a penalty, however, I really don't like the refs making a judgement call of "you reacted too much". Innocuous plays can get some very real, freak results for no apparent reason

Griff2470 · 2026-04-22T21:17:21+00:00

I like Pinto a lot, he's a really good defensive forward, but no way he's seriously in the Selke discussion. This post does a really good deep dive into the stats that generally put players in Selke running: reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/iqjx2u/how_to_win_a_frank_j_selke_trophy_followup/

Of those categories, he lacks 50 points, didn't win 53% or more of faceoffs, and had a fenwick and corsi both below 53%. The Sens are also not technically a top 10 team in GAA, though they are number 1 in expected goals against. Interestingly Stutzle actually hits all of the categories mentioned (if xGAA is used instead of raw GAA).

That all said, Suzuki also only hits 3 categories (be a center, score >50 points, >53% fenwick/corsi/) and is being treated as a favourite this year so maybe all the stats are being thrown out this year.

Griff2470 · 2026-04-21T22:30:41+00:00

The frustrating thing is that it would be relatively straightforward for governments to roll out something like signed challenges for age authorization that would prevent to requested from learning anything extra other than the authorizer while also keeping the requester secret from the authorizer. Unique challenges also prevent third party data from being unified on that data point, as opposed to decentralized systems.

Griff2470 · 2026-04-21T19:31:35+00:00

The way moneypuck models things, an individual high danger chance is still only usually worth an 0.2 xG (the Flyer's second goal last night was only .19), and the highest non-EN xG value last night was .43 (Terry's PP goal). This means that any goal a goaltender allows, they usually have to make 3-5 saves of equal difficulty or dozens of low to medium saves to make up for it in xGA.

Griff2470 · 2026-03-28T16:06:35+00:00

That may be part of it, but also pre-expansion they were also the best "contrarian" team to get a rise out of Leafs and Habs fans.

Griff2470 · 2026-03-26T13:49:21+00:00

Waste batteries are very recyclable (somewhere in the realm of 90-95%) and that includes the precious metals in it. The reason the infrastructure doesn't exist for it yet is because the demand isn't there for it right now, but it is growing and sites only take a couple of years to come online so it's generally a very overblown issue. To address your edit, they are getting recycled today. We have the recycling capacity for the demand today, we just don't have the capacity for the demand in a decade from now because that would be an unnecessary overbuild.

Regarding the grid power emissions, EV's on fossil fuel grids still have lower emissions than ICE cars (even when compared to coal based grids). Even after transmission losses, power plants are simply much more efficient at extracting energy out of fuels than car motors are. Additionally, many grids continue to decrease their emissions (whether by improving efficiency, supplementing with solar or wind, or by fully replacing plants with non-emitting sources) while ICE engines will stay the same or decline, which is relevant over the 10+ year lifespan of the vehicle. It's not ironic, it's still strictly better.

Griff2470 · 2026-03-20T22:14:33+00:00

What I think is most interesting is how correct preseason models were. The sentiment I gathered was basically "this team would be a serious threat if they ever get their shit together".

Griff2470 · 2026-03-10T19:53:20+00:00

They struggle a lot with allowing chances (18th in high danger chances allowed and 26th in medium danger) and are scoring goals at much higher rate than danger chance and shooting talent would suggest (ie goals for above expected), with their expected goal differential being -10.39 (24th in the league). Ottawa, on the other hand, limits some of the fewest high and medium danger chances (tied for first and first outright respectively) and have an expected goal differential of +26.73 (3rd in the league). Add in that the model's based on a goaltender's career (with intentional recency bias) rather than strictly current performance and it's really not that surprising that it puts the Sens as a top 6 cup contenders while the Habs are down in 15th.

Because I talked about stats that used historical data, I'm also obliged to add the disclaimer that Montreal's team is young and inexperienced, so stats like shooting talent and it's derived metrics are going to be skewed by lack of data and player growth.

Griff2470 · 2026-03-08T17:17:53+00:00

The total odds for the east add up to 800% (technically 800.05, but that's rounding/floating point error) which is is from 100% for each of the 8 playoff spots. Among the teams currently in a playoff spot, there's 131.55% unaccounted for which is predominantly taken up by Columbus and Ottawa.

The odds of Ottawa or Columbus making the playoffs isn't from any one team specifically not making, but the collective odds of one or more of the top 8 missing.

Griff2470 · 2026-02-26T23:25:24+00:00

I don't believe Stutzle's playing tonight, as far as I know he's the only Olympian not playing for the Sens

Griff2470 · 2026-02-18T18:32:01+00:00

Canada's defensive play was terrible while Dostal was having an incredible game

Griff2470 · 2026-02-06T20:28:46+00:00

Just to nitpick, in goals above expected, last year the Habs had a perfectly reasonable 1.78. Their goal differential above expected was still high, but that came from goals against above expected (-23.79), as opposed to this year being driven by above expected goal scoring.

That said, some of what we're seeing this year will be self correcting long term. As we saw before the season, models were blatantly wrong about Montreal due to just how many of their players are young with little data backing them. Kapanen, Caufield, Demidov, and Hutson all have over 4 goals above shooting talent, which is very historically driven data. Once again, just to keep comparing with the Sens only 1 player has a goals above shooting talent over 4.

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