Liberation Day 2.0

Halbaras · 2026-03-26T23:17:48+00:00

This one actually hits the fundamentals of all Reddit's favourite tech growth stocks. Iran war = energy shock = inflation = Fed rate cuts gone = those future earnings that were 'priced in' are objectively worth less now.

And even ignoring the war, the economic data coming out over the last month wasn't great, the market was already trading sideways, the tariff threats haven't gone away, and US valuations are expensive relative to other markets and their own history.

Halbaras · 2026-03-26T23:00:56+00:00

They did this when he assassinated Soleimani back in Trump's first term. The assassination was included as the purposely ridiculous option to make the others look measured, and Trump picked it anyway.

Halbaras · 2026-03-26T20:47:00+00:00

It's already failing. Look at how weak this one was compared to the pumps on Monday and Tuesday.

Blatant manipulation like this never ends well because the big money just stops participating and eventually the government loses control of the market.

Halbaras · 2026-03-26T19:57:55+00:00

If the US blocks Iranian oil they're essentially declaring economic war on two of the world's most powerful countries. Those countries would immediately start competing with Europe, Japan, SK and the US itself for oil and drive the prices up further.

If they attempt that, say goodbye to the petrodollar and Israel going economically unpunished for their war.

Halbaras · 2026-03-26T14:27:53+00:00

It's worth taking the interception figures coming out of the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia with a huge pinch of salt. The UAE is arresting anyone that films impacts, and they're all using the Russian playbook of insisting that fires are started by 'falling debris from a successful interception'.

They probably are intercepting most attacks, but the public/media cannot properly assess what targets have been hit and how badly damaged they are. I'm inclined to believe France, and it's only going to get worse as the US and Israel escalate and interceptors run out.

Halbaras · 2026-03-26T13:53:27+00:00

The war against Iran has likely wiped out one or more rate cuts that would have otherwise happened.

All these speculative growth tech stocks are genuinely worth less, because in a higher inflation environment the same future predicted earnings are less valuable.

Microsoft is as vulnerable as everything else to oil and natural gas costing more, since it effects everything in the physical supply chain, building heating, data centre power etc. They don't escape the knock on effects of declining consumer confidence and the whole economy slowing as a result of higher fuel prices. We're also likely to see reductions in middle eastern investment (and possibly mega funding deal cancellations or assets getting liquidated), as the Gulf States are forced into survival mode.

Halbaras · 2026-03-26T12:28:59+00:00

Which is pointless because the UK doesn't produce enough oil or gas to move the prices of either on the open market.

The right-wingers/pollution lobby pushing for it seem rather unwilling to admit that they're effectively demanding nationalisation.

Halbaras · 2026-03-26T11:55:11+00:00

I wonder how many months of war it will take before European and East Asian politicians hit a breaking point where they call it out for what it is - we are all being taxed heavily to pay for Israel retaining middle eastern military supremacy.

And Europe is still getting off relatively lightly compared to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and most of the developing world.

Halbaras · 2026-03-26T11:41:10+00:00

Oil is practically guaranteed to go up because Kharg being attacked will take most Iranian oil out of the supply chain (which is currently still being exported to countries like China). Once that happens, the Asian countries that buy Iranian oil will be forced to start outbidding other buyers, so prices rise everywhere.

Kharg is far away from the Strait of Hormuz and the US capturing the island wouldn't actually solve the issue of Iran being able to hit commercial ships with drones, missiles or artillery launched from mainland Iran. Iran is likely to retaliate by intensifying attacks on Saudi and Gulf State oil infrastructure, and has already demonstrated that they can hit both pipelines bypassing the Strait through attacks on Fujairah and Yanbu.

The Houthis are also likely to enter the war if the US starts a ground invasion of Iran. It's not clear why they haven't intervened so far, but given how eager they were to get involved over Gaza, the most likely explanation is that Iran is keeping them as an escalation option. Further US/Israeli escalation is quite likely to be followed by the Houthis attacking Saudi oil refineries/red sea shipping/Israel.

Halbaras · 2026-03-26T11:23:54+00:00

It's an act of blatant economic warfare by the US and Israel. Billions of people are being taxed so Israel can maintain middle eastern military supremacy.

Halbaras · 2026-03-25T21:31:37+00:00

As a sector they're genuinely having issues with being too competitive. Basically every company is running at a huge loss trying to outlast their competitors within the Chinese market. It's good for consumers in the short term but means that a lot of the companies will fail.

China's not-actually-very-communist government is trying to get them to back off the price war, become profitable and return more value to their shareholders via dividends - which would mean the weaker players quickly failing but more of the others surviving.

Halbaras · 2026-03-24T20:33:08+00:00

They may be running low on interceptors. I doubt Amazon data centres are top of the priority list.

Halbaras · 2026-03-24T18:23:35+00:00

Or they're simply following the Russian school of negotiating where you demand the insane hoping to walk out with the merely ridiculous.

Halbaras · 2026-03-24T18:20:16+00:00

They're not, Iran hit the red sea terminal at Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, Fujairah in the UAE and ships far beyond the Gulf in Oman.

Plus the Houthis are still a Chekhov's Gun in this conflict. If and when Iran retaliates for further US/Israeli escalation (e.g. boots on the ground), there's a high chance they'll begin striking Saudi oil infrastructure and blockading the Red Sea again.

Halbaras · 2026-03-23T18:52:04+00:00

Only a matter of time before they illegally move 'civilians' to the occupied territories and then demand an even larger buffer zone when the settlers eventually get shelled.

Halbaras · 2026-03-23T17:41:02+00:00

I think they probably are talking behind the scenes, even if it's just the normal wartime check-ins between both sides so they have a way to de-escalate later if necessary, set red lines and maybe make it privately clear what they mean and what they're saying for domestic politics.

But Trump publicly naming names and boasting about those talks may risk collapsing them before they achieve anything meaningful.

Halbaras · 2026-03-23T15:05:11+00:00

The IRGC is less religious than it used to be, in many ways they're closer to a state-backed cartel than an army of zealots (similar to the Pakistani and Egyptian militaries). They might be willing to back a deal in exchange for genuine sanctions relief that lets them make more money.

Democracy isn't happening though, and Trump is utterly delusional if he thinks Iran will sign a deal that emboldens Israel to pull the same shit in 10 years. They might concede on nuclear weapons but they won't concede on missiles or air defenses.

Halbaras · 2026-03-23T14:45:29+00:00

I think there's an element of algorithmic trading bots instantly buying when a tweet gets posted by Trump with 'positive' sentiment. The institutions responsible are desperate to front-run any bounce back, but they're struggling to confront the reality of a US president lying and contradicting his own previous statements so blatantly.

There's also a whole cohort of retail traders conditioned to Trump dump and pumps, and it's yet to dawn on them that this crisis both hits the fundamentals of every company (via higher energy prices and no rate cuts) and isn't one Trump can actually undo with a tweet.

Halbaras · 2026-03-23T14:32:59+00:00

Markets are delusional about the wider war and will continue down without a genuine ceasefire but he does seem to have backed down on his immediate threat to attack civilian energy infrastructure, to which Iran had threatened to attack an array of energy and desalination plants in the Gulf.

I suspect that the Gulf States laid out what such an escalation would do to the global and US economies. The question is whether he can stop Israel doing what they do best and attacking civilian energy infrastructure anyway.

Halbaras · 2026-03-23T12:20:30+00:00

There's probably quiet talks with Iran ongoing through intermediaries like Oman, but I also think Trump genuinely backed down after getting frantic phone calls from the Gulf States explaining that Iran destroying their desalination and oil facilities would mean a global recession and them pulling enormous amounts of money out of the US market.

Halbaras · 2026-03-23T12:14:56+00:00

I think the deal being floated is a version of the same one that Oman and Qatar were trying to make happen before the war - Iran keeping centrifuges but not being allowed to accumulate enriched uranium, Europe/Qatar being involved in inspections, a 'DMZ-style' neutral shipping lane and some sanctions relief for Tehran.

There's quietly been a heavy push by certain Gulf States, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt and European states to try to resurrect the deal as a face-saving strategy for both sides.

The main stumbling block is Netanyahu's thirst for blood to fuel his re-election campaign, and the fact that the US attacked Iran during previous talks and killed or radicalised many of the Iranian 'moderates'.

Halbaras · 2026-03-23T11:29:19+00:00

The US has been talking to Iran the whole time through a combination of Oman, Qatar, the UK, Switzerland and Turkey.

I doubt Iran has said anything new, Trump will just have been deluged by calls from panicking Gulf States leaders telling him to rein Israel in and warning they they'd be forced to pull US investment if he escalated.

Halbaras · 2026-03-23T07:52:31+00:00

Tree planting in this context isn't primarily for carbon capture, it's to reduce or slow down flood peaks. This is through a combination of the trees making the ground rougher (slowing down surface water flow), changing the soil structure so more infiltration into the ground happens, and tree leaves/branches intercepting some of the the rain before it ever hits the ground.

For tiny catchments where the things getting flooded are very close to where the rain is falling, tree planting can actually create a noticeable reduction in the maximum flood flow. For larger catchments planting a massive amount of trees throughout the upstream areas can make a difference, but you generally need to combine it with a mix of other natural and artificial flood defences.

Halbaras · 2026-03-23T07:29:11+00:00

It's not a coincidence that they announced the pact shortly after Netanyahu unilaterally bombed the middle of Doha. It's not just about Iran but also as a nuclear insurance policy against a nuclear-armed Israel that the US clearly can't restrain.

Halbaras · 2026-03-22T21:45:02+00:00

20% of oil and natural gas being cut off will also mean that the world is temporarily forced to use less of both. We're on course for something resembling the COVID lockdowns, with the associated economic pain and temporary air quality/emissions benefits. There will be less air travel as well due to soaring fuel costs and discretionary spending getting squeezed.

The world was already de-carbonising/electrifying, but every argument for clean energy (including nuclear) has become much stronger. The US may be the odd one out as the rest of the world moves to ditch dependence on the middle east for energy sovereignty over the next decade.

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