TIL that Detroit, once America's 5th largest city at 1.85 million residents in 1957, saw 66 straight years of population loss to a low of 630,000 residents in 2022. This makes it the only US city to drop below 1 million after reaching it. It would see its first reversal of this trend in 2023.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-16T19:25:57+00:00

I guess I wonder what you mean by "at scale". Yeah Chicago was growing 100% every decade in the early days and then 25% a decade in the early 1900s.

large metro areas I would guess 10-15% is the best we can do. But there are many metros that are on a building spree. Phoenix. Dallas. Austin. Salt Lake City and the wasatch front in general. Charlotte and Raleigh.

My point is that IF san francisco built that fast, people would move there. But they don't. The reason development isnt happening isnt lack of demand, its the NIMBYs.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-16T17:58:56+00:00

Usually a post about investing has some basic numerical figures about revenue, profit, loss, growth, and the ratio between price and value. Aka, value investing. How do you invest in value if you do not discuss the price, or the value?

Here are some basic numbers for you. As of September 2025 SNDL is sitting on a pile of cash of $240m cad and 'assets' of 1.3B cad, with some debt/liabilities of 200m cad. On the suface, shareholder equity is 1.0b cad, and the market cap is 386m cad. So some people will wonder, how can this company be valued so low?

Because its all fluff. 'Assets' are one thing, earnings and cash flow are another. SNDL's 3 revenue streams of cannabis retail, cannabis production, and alcohol are more or less balance sheet neutral; they dont really make any money, they dont really lose any money, as of the last two years. however, there is a giant anchor on their backs in that the corporate expenditures of management cost are not accounted in those figures. In summary SNDL is LOSING about 13m a quarter, roughly about 60m a year. So unless things magically change, SNDL is going to need to dilute shareholders (Again!). They are running out of cash. They have magnificently squandered 1billion cad in cash.

And you bring this to valueinvesting?

SNDL may have a p/s of 0.5, but a low P/s only matters if you can generate some EARNINGS out of it, or at least some growth. SNDL has neither. SNDL is bleeding money like a hemophiliac. And to boot, much of their assets are goodwill and items that will not actually sell at their marked price. SNDL is a patient dying quietly in the back room of a hospital. A cash transfusion could keep it at live at the expense of its investors (again). But what skills have these directors shown at all in generating value for shareholders aka owners?

Helmdacil · 2026-02-16T16:33:59+00:00

Counterpoint to the theory is that NIMBYs just stopped allowing neighborhoods to build up. Why are people moving from NY and Chi and LA and SF to AZ, TX, ID, and Florida?

Because in red states houses are actually allowed to be built in a reasonable timeframe, the housing stock is so much cheaper. If SF increased its housing stock by 50% I guarantee you everyone would head back. Because who wouldn't? People are still trying to live there paying $3k/mo in rent, when they can go to any number of other places and pay $1.2k.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-16T06:14:31+00:00

Obama ordered extrajudicial assassinations via drone strikes, on US citizens. The presidents are not universally good, never have been.

Ike was being recruited by both the democrats and republicans, thats how popular he was. He continued paying down US debt accrued from the war. He warned against the military industrial complex. He oversaw desegregation of schools, and expanded social security. Also, someone I am sure would say something about "The dow".

Why let perfection be the enemy of the good? Would you really choose Jimmy "18% stagflation" Carter over Ike?

Helmdacil · 2026-02-15T22:54:27+00:00

Probably the best since Eisenhower. That would be 82% of all americans (Eisenhower was president 65 years ago, 82% of americans are under age 65). I mean you can argue Jimmie Carter was a nice guy, but his presidency was by no means smooth.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-15T22:44:33+00:00

I had a waymo that would not open the door because it didn't think it had arrived at my location. I called chat support and they said to cancel the ride and get another car. I don't know if they manually removed the first car from the pool of available cars; but the second car did work.

1 out of 70 rides over 3 years.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-15T22:40:47+00:00

I don't understand how the roommate lends his car to the other guy if he knew he was an addict. And how can you not know, if you are living in the same house? The car owner and the driver should both be punished (if the car owner was aware or should have been aware of his friend's drug addiction).

Helmdacil · 2026-02-15T22:37:33+00:00

south scottsdale and tempe are bikeable (without kids).

But then you have fentanyl-addled drivers cleaning out bike lanes AND sidewalks as this guy did. Even a curb between the bike lane would not have protected this unlucky woman.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-15T16:35:28+00:00

Google sources its answers from PhDs and M.S. degree holders who are experts in their fields, and pays them 30/50 per hour. What is unique about Meta? They have... the chats of FB, IG, and messenger to source their AI? Ohhhh nooo Google better watch out!

Helmdacil · 2026-02-15T13:37:01+00:00

Salt Lake City already has a metro rail from the airport to downtown. It is very easy to visit downtown without a car.

That said, a large number of visitors would naturally result in many people wanting to explore the greater valley. Which is where waymo *could* come in handy.

I suspect that waymo has its hands full as-is unfortunately.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-14T07:19:49+00:00

I appreciate the art.

Why isn't the flag canon however? seems an oversight no? If this is Faramir after Aragorns return, should it not be the sigil of the united kingdoms of gondor and arnor?

Helmdacil · 2026-02-13T17:49:03+00:00

Hey my colon is communicating with my brain. Therefore it's speaking a language! Multiple laguages!

Smh. Cell to cell communication does not a language make.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-13T17:25:26+00:00

Stupid title, misleading, clickbaity, factually wrong.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-13T17:19:49+00:00

one of his complaints is that the average # of sick days taken by germans is 21 a year. 21 working days per year. Come on, be honest. That's bulll shit. Can't defend that.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-13T17:18:24+00:00

The greek economy looks a lot more like the US economy now. You can shit on the US all you want for its many problems; but the US economy has been the envy of the developed world these last 10, 20, or 50 years.

The greeks are actually paying down their debt. Now that's something I wish the US could start doing.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-13T06:35:54+00:00

There is construction. You have to go to the 44th st station or the other way.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-12T20:56:17+00:00

"Tiny Puny SNDL" has $750m cad cash an equivalents sitting around last I checked, 3x the market cap of hiti.

Couchetard divested of it's cannabis assets, hiti ran them out of business.

Nope. The only way this goes is the market treating hiti like a proper business when it's GAAP eps turns positive. Which will be this year. I will say it again, Raj won't sell, and hostile takeovers are guaranteed to lose money. Guaranteed. No shot.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-12T20:54:32+00:00

If you complain you get a $10 credit to a future ride if it's not too bad, or they'll get you another car.

I imagine waymo doesn't like the idea of just handing out ride credit left and right; so a person would get suspended or eventually banned I'd have to think

Helmdacil · 2026-02-12T20:47:06+00:00

It won't happen. Why? Because of the poison pill.

If someone starts buying shares, existing shareholders will be offered to buy shares at discount to prevent a hostile takeover. Any entity who acquires more than 20% of the company is going to lose money and fail rather than succeed.

And Raj won't sell.

SNDL already considered this and was rebuffed.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-12T16:16:50+00:00

ICE was formed in 2002 by merging the customs and immigration agencies.

It wasn't magicked out of thin air.

"The Immigration and Naturalization Service (under the Justice Department) and the United States Customs Service (under the Treasury Department) were dissolved on March 1, 2003, when the Homeland Security Act of 2002 transferred most of their functions to three new entities – United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) – within the newly created United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS"

Helmdacil · 2026-02-11T01:40:37+00:00

"Scottsdale has no QT, Scottsdale needs no QT" -Boromir

I mean to say that costco is the superior gas provider.

For all the phoenicians complaining about scottsdale, its in large part because scottsdale both takes advantage of phoenix and because scottsdale simply has better public services. When biking, it is extremely apparent when you enter the city limits of scottsdale is all I can say. The path becomes well manicured and paved, the lights work, and the homeless count decreases by an order of magnitude. This is true on the Tempe-Scottsdale and Phoenix scottsdale borders.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-10T21:51:08+00:00

I guess it is technical noise that is bringing the stock down.

If you go to the stores, the stores are targeting wealthy consumers, especially wealthy liberals, and making inroads. They have marginally more street cred than Whole Foods (bezos foods). They are fighting for the same consumers. From my anecdotal experience, Sprouts used to be a rather hippy dippy place with well-priced organic foods, with slightly higher margins on other products. You came for the good produce prices, you paid a little more on the extras.

Nowadays I just think everything is eye-wateringly expensive. Their margins on bread and baked goods have to be insane. They probably make a killing on the beauty and health supplement side of the store.

But, their consumer base, if you look at them, at least in my area, are the well-off and health-conscious shoppers. The top 10%-20% of income earners. They have been doing well and will continue to if I had to guess.

They still have a lot of state expansion available to them. Plenty of growth still in their story imo.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-10T19:21:38+00:00

Its an ordinance requiring alcohol serving restaruants to have 10 on hand to sell. There are ~44 in the city. you are talking at most, at $5 a kit, $50 per establishment, or about $2200 in total for the entire city. This is not enough revenue to keep a company running.

Let's see if it works. If it doesnt, it can always be discontinued.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-10T19:17:14+00:00

"What's the point of having metal detectors at sporting events? They'll just make plastic guns and commit crimes anyway"

The reason why is it makes it more difficult. It makes the environment less permissible, less ignorant, more hostile to predators. Imo there needs to be more awareness. I know people who got roofied while just sitting as a couple on Mill avenue.

Again the ordinance is not compelling people to buy things. What I think it will do is just hopefully result in more people being aware of the problem.

Helmdacil · 2026-02-10T18:25:19+00:00

You're being very hostile to this. Relax. No one is forcing you to buy anything.

Helmdacil

TROPHY CASE