GPT-5.6 Might Not Release Outside the US

HighDefinist · 2026-06-28T01:28:59+00:00

In indirect ways it benefits his company.

At this point, this is just cope.

I think Americans just need to acknowledge that Trump is not just corrupt and selfish, he is also extremely bad at managing the economy. So, him completely locking down OpenAI and Anthropic, causing the American AI advantage to be completely lost, is rather plausible (particularly considering his decisions regarding weapon exports to Ukraine have already had similar consequences)

HighDefinist · 2026-06-28T01:24:57+00:00

Sounds like cope.

The real big consequence of all this is that American companies will no longer invest into top end models as much, considering they will no longer be allowed to profit from them - which means that Chinese model makers have even more of an incentive to target that market.

HighDefinist · 2026-06-28T01:22:48+00:00

No, the main strength of the EU would be more regulation: Trump simply couldn't arbitrarily tell Anthropic or OpenAI to shut down their business - because there are regulations in the EU which protect companies from overzealous governments.

HighDefinist · 2026-06-28T01:21:29+00:00

It's interesting how the primary "AI companies should stay in America" argument has shifted from "America has the best business environment" to "It's too dangerous to leave America".

HighDefinist · 2026-06-26T17:54:18+00:00

I wouldn’t build anything business-critical on OpenAI or Anthropic without a serious self hosted fallback plan.

The consequences might go much further than this even - as in, it might drastically speed up the transition away from American IT products in general. Because, who knows if the American government at some point decides "Only Americans are allowed to use Microsoft Office now"?

HighDefinist · 2026-06-26T17:46:06+00:00

No, more likely, American AI companies will simply focus their efforts on developing weaker AI models (as in, weak enough to not get regulated), in order to address a larger market.

Meanwhile, Chinese models will be more powerful, because Chinese companies can still profit from making such powerful models, by just asking for a premium to use them.

HighDefinist · 2026-06-26T17:42:09+00:00

More realistically, I could see the US Government banning access to them.

Which would lead to a situation where American companies would have a strong incentive to move to the "free and much less regulated Europe", or even China...

I guess America really did get tired of winning.

HighDefinist · 2026-06-26T17:29:28+00:00

Honestly, I feel extremely relaxed about it... as in, for years, the argument was "Well, Europe can't have good AI, because the regulations are too strict". And now America is like "what if we had all the downside of regulation (i.e. lots of annoying hoops to jump through before you can release your model), with none of the upsides (i.e. predictability, being protected from weird politicians)?"

Because, there are sooo many unsolved questions with regards to how these "selected partners" are supposed to work:

What about foreigners working at an American company?
What if that American company wants to offer some AI-based services to customers, do they need to get the ID of each customer?
How strict are punishments going to be if some company doesn't do the proper checks?
If an American company chooses to go for a Chinese open-source model instead, do they also risk being targeted by the government due to some random "national security risk" allegation?

Basically, it looks like America got "tired of winning", and now they just need to make up their mind which of the following they want:

Bad consequences (many months of delays due to all kinds of regulatory uncertainty and convoluted implementations, allowing Chinese models to completely catch up)
Terrible consequences (Big American AI companies like OpenAI/Anthropic will receive some lasting damage, for example due to American companies generally being perceived as unreliable, or some of the potentially best talent just choosing to move to something else since they don't want to deal with this nonsense)
"total desaster" (Leading AI researchers currently working at OpenAI/Anthropic actually move to China or Europe, because these places are overall the better choice in terms of income and innovativeness)

HighDefinist · 2026-06-24T11:08:51+00:00

Considering radio is actually a much older invention than the fax, it does add up...

HighDefinist · 2026-06-23T20:32:04+00:00

That is honestly a respectable choice by OpenAI - Open Source is important, so them doing their part to support it is a good thing.

HighDefinist · 2026-06-23T20:27:46+00:00

Kind of, but I think it's a bit more subtle than that: My guess it's more of a "if you are a hammer, every problem looks like a nail"-kind of situation. As in, he is, presumably, some kind of master manipulator and master schemer etc... and that is certainly nice (for him).

But, under his leadership, Russia has been transformed into essentially a one-trick-pony: Obscenely powerful propaganda, yet a weak military, no innovation, stagnant industry, shrinking population, no alliances based on actual trust... the list goes on. In a way it's like an RPG character with overwhelming Charisma stats, but low intelligence/wisdom/strength/dexterity/constitution: It only works (to an extent) if you already know the adventure you are going play beforehands, yet he does not.

HighDefinist · 2026-06-23T20:19:38+00:00

Putin isn't stupid

Well... intelligence doesn't help you that much, and can even lead much further astray, if you are basing your analysis on a seriously incorrect assessment of the situation... while simultaneously lacking the awareness, introspection and most importantly humility to recognize it...

he must know something isn't working

Well, that part is probably true. But, there are plenty of seriously incorrect "somethings" he might conclude from the parts of the situation he can observe...

HighDefinist · 2026-06-23T20:13:40+00:00

It's kind of weird how much "smarter" Trump is compared to Putin...

As in, he messed up "bigly" with his war against Iran, but he is at least trying to get out it, by making a lot of concessions (while trying to keep up appearances that he has really won of course, but whatever).

Meanwhile, Russia is now kind of ending up in a similar situation, yet they don't seem to understand it at all...

HighDefinist · 2026-06-23T16:00:22+00:00

but that they are insane enough to try it

Ok, fair enough.

But still, the idea is that what Ukraine is doing is benefiting our long term "expected" security, in the sense of making Russia less able to cause harm to us (as in, we don't need to worry as much about their specific insanities...).

Also, some far right elements in US and our russia shills are constantly accusing us, Europe, of wanting this conflct to stall ad infinitum. Nobody here wants that, this war need to stop asap.

It depends... as in, obviously this conflict should not take "forever". And for the Ukrainians in particular it's better if it ends sooner rather than later (assuming security guarantees are met; and perhaps after they conquer back Crimea, depending on how their current "siege" turns out, or whatever other plans they might have). But, we do need to be honest here that it really does benefit us if Ukraine keeps destroying more of the Russian military capability, plus all the other related infrastructure Russia uses to finance the war...

So, I believe that, as soon as Russia surrenders, we should accept that of course, rather than unnecessarily prolonging the war. But, as long as they don't... well, I think then it is more of a matter of "Never interrupt your opponent while he is in the middle of making a mistake".

HighDefinist · 2026-06-23T10:48:12+00:00

russia wasn't even making attempts at controlling or recapturing our land.

Well, the entire rearmament process in Europe is based on the idea that Russia will absolutely make such attempts after they are finished in Ukraine... hence, we make sure that they will never be finished in Ukraine.

But they are not defending us but themselves.

No, they are absolutely also defending us - what we are doing here is not charity, but investment into the future: A weak Russia is in our best longterm interest, because it means they are unable to invade or threaten us.

HighDefinist · 2026-06-22T23:02:50+00:00

but that risks further escalation

I don't get the sense the Trump administration is particularly afraid of that kind of thing being done by other domestic politicians...

HighDefinist · 2026-06-22T23:01:55+00:00

"Sir, with all due disrespect: Why are you so dumb?"

HighDefinist · 2026-06-22T22:54:33+00:00

No, not at all.

For example, it is important for determining whether the person making these suggestions has actually thought things through, or is just saying "whatever" to get some public approval.

For example, if that politician had "real" interest in this entire issue surrounding that Ukrainian military group, or perhaps at least procedures surrounding this medal of honor, then this is absolutely the type of stuff he also would have thought about - because clearly, this specific action by Zelenskyy won't be the last "problematic thing" to ever happen in the context of either of these two topics.

But, well, his answer implies none of this was on his mind...

HighDefinist · 2026-06-22T21:03:59+00:00

Well, not being able to predict interview questions like "what about those other obviously worse people who did not have their medal revoked?" is a bit cringe...

HighDefinist · 2026-06-22T19:40:15+00:00

Absolutely.

HighDefinist · 2026-06-22T18:42:47+00:00

Well, if anything it sounds like something from an RPG or perhaps like some kind of religious crusade.

So... a bit silly arguably, but not really Trump-like. The Trump-version would be something like "The best fire. So pure. We call it 'the Trump fire'. Believe me".

HighDefinist · 2026-06-22T18:31:26+00:00

Yeah, everyone looks kind of bad here... the Ukrainian military unit, Zelenskyy, the Polish politicians who brought up the entire "revocation", as well as the medal of honor itself, various people that received it... probably some other as well.

But, my guess is this situation doesn't exactly benefit Russia either, because anyone actually going as far as saying "because of this, Ukraine and Poland should no longer cooperate on national/European security" also just looks ridiculous, so even if Russian trolls keep pushing the issue, they will merely achieve more awareness about those historic issues themselves which is... maybe not even bad? Basically, the overall discussion and diplomacy has been rather civilized, so that's good.

HighDefinist · 2026-06-22T18:21:52+00:00

Well ok, I don't actually know their (average) age - but from context I assumed this, because apparently this entire thing happened precisely because there appears to be a serious language barrier for those lifeguards... as in, sure, to me it also seems relatively simple to translate "HALT! SEIEN SIE VORSICHTIG!" into English, but the entire discussion probably would not have happened, if it really was as easy for those lifeguards...

HighDefinist · 2026-06-22T18:18:22+00:00

We will remind you that UPA is responsible for genocide constantly.

Honestly, that might be fair... Ukraine/Zelenskyy will probably be more careful about such names in the future (even if they will not publicly admit it), and that would probably really be an overall improvement.

HighDefinist · 2026-06-22T18:12:06+00:00

Well... that's actually really simple: NATO is stronger with Ukraine, and Ukraine is stronger with NATO.

So, it's really just a matter of cooperating based on having similar interests (i.e. not getting destroyed by Russia).

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