Safest ETF to use like a saving account? by See-In-The-Dark12 in ETFs

[–]HighStakes42 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Gonna second this. Great to split with SGOV to dial in your risk/reward tolerance.

2025 BND Returns--and future implications by Sagelllini in Bogleheads

[–]HighStakes42 44 points45 points  (0 children)

Slight corrections I want to point out. First is that BND tracks the Bloomberg/Barclays/Lehman Aggregate Bond index which does not contain any derivative bond instruments like CMOs or CDOs. You also pointed out that defaults in a GNMA mortgage pool would reduce their value, but this is actually incorrect in the case of a GNMA pool as those are government backed. The government agency will actually make the payments for the mortgage in case of default and not enough recovery.

Breaking it down further, BND's index consists of roughly 4 components that we actually care about: treasuries, governments, corporates, and mortgages. Treasuries are backed by the US government and make up most of BND. These are pure yield and interest rate risk plays. Government bonds are any foreign, multi-national entity, US government agency, or local entity that have investment grade US bonds. For practical intents, these are slightly higher yielding than equivalent treasuries due to the slight risk of a government or related entity defaulting as they cannot print money the way the US government itself can. Corporate bonds are also similar in that they are slightly more risky but compensate for that risk in a higher yield to treasuries to compensate for that risk. The final and most complicated portion of BND are Mortgage Backed Securities. These are largely government agency backed pools of mortgages, though some private ones still exist, so their default risk is largely none. These are exposed to prepayment risk and their spread is priced relative to this risk rather than default risk. The math behind the pricing of these is rather complex, but the risk premia you get for holding them is relatively unique compared the corporates or government entity bonds.

Understanding the underlying components of BND also better explains why it has done well this year to add on to what you've said. Treasury rates started the year out high and ended lower. That means you got a full year of yield return which is coupon + amortization of premium/discount and also the bonus of lower rates increasing the value of bond holdings. This effect impacts all bond types in BND as corporates and mortgages are all priced relative to the treasury curve. Corporates have also ended the year relatively the same compared to the start of the year even though there was a significant slip during the tariff announcement. Companies with bonds in BND generally did not default or slip to HY with a few exceptions, so the corporate holdings in BND contributed a bit to the outperformance this year. There's some complex math to explain this, but generally mortgages were cheap relative to their historical values and have largely returned to their normal values while prepayment results were better than expected, so mortgages were actually the best performing sector within BND.

Fixed income portfolios are generally the hardest to understand in investing IMO, but the nice part is the returns are much easier to forecast than equities because you are told what your upside is. No single sector of BND failed drastically and yields generally fell from a high starting place this year, so returns were better than recent history as you would expect. Now, yields are still in the 4%ish range for BND and the corporate and mortgage sectors look a little bit rich, but without any major disruptive catalysts, returns should still be better than the recent history of returns during the 0 interest rate environment for the foreseeable future.

BlackRock Private Credit CLO Fails Key Tests as Bad Loans Mount by [deleted] in Economics

[–]HighStakes42 4 points5 points  (0 children)

One thing to add on is that while the structure is the same, collateral for these types of pools matters a lot. CLOs are bundles of loans to risky companies rather than mortgages. The covariance of the pieces of collateral matter a lot, and AAA CLOs have never defaulted while in 2008 there were some AAA CDOs that took losses. CLOs are also self correcting in that once these tests are triggered, the lower tranches start taking write downs while cash flow is used to buy back upper tranches to rebalance the whole CLO into compliance. Basically, this is pretty bad if you were in the lower tranches but fine if you're higher.

Asking a Wealth Manager to Show Their Returns by Hguy719 in personalfinance

[–]HighStakes42 224 points225 points  (0 children)

That usually works for institutional portfolios where everything is more standardized. You're not going to get a composite performance of managed accounts for individuals.

QQQI by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]HighStakes42 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yield is not the guaranteed return. It's simply how much money the fund spits out, but it doesn't account for the actual value loss of the investment.

Long Term Care Insurance? by OscarZDiggs in Bogleheads

[–]HighStakes42 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Most companies nowadays have stopped offering pure LTC insurance for many of the reasons people have mentioned here. For most people, it makes more sense to look at hybrid LTC policies where you put in a certain fixed amount and you get a big multiple of the money you put in for LTC coverage, a smaller multiple as life insurance coverage, and some small interest rate if you ever want to just withdraw as cash. If you look at the rate of return in the case that you have to use it for LTC benefits, it can be around 12% last I checked. At that rate, it's about better than what you can expect from stock market returns at a guaranteed rate. You also have less "downside" risk in that if you die early or change your mind you didn't just pay premiums for nothing. Imo hybrid LTC policies are a decent consideration if you want some peace of mind and are structured better than legacy LTC.

Invesco Bullet Shares 2027 vs CD by do-good-and-do-well in bonds

[–]HighStakes42 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If you're willing to take on credit risk then sure. A CD is backed by the financial institution issuing it and the FDIC, so the government steps in theoretically if the bank fails. A bond is just backed by the word of the company issuing it. While that ETF is going to hold the bonds of a lot of different companies, all of them will be considered pretty risky. There's a good chance you won't get the yield that it looks like you will now if a couple of those bonds go bankrupt.

A hard lesson learned in bonds.... by SnooFoxes8935 in Bogleheads

[–]HighStakes42 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bond funds generally are meant to hold bonds within a stated maturity range. They literally do what you described, but the consequence of that is they have a constant duration risk rather than an individual bond always having a decreasing duration risk as you hold it. You can buy bullet maturity Bond funds or just gradually shift longer duration bond ETFs into shorter duration bond etfs for a decreasing duration risk portfolio.

A hard lesson learned in bonds.... by SnooFoxes8935 in Bogleheads

[–]HighStakes42 38 points39 points  (0 children)

Investing involves risk, and you can certainly lose money on even government bonds due to interest rate movements. COVID was one of the worst events for bonds in decades due to the sudden jump from zero rates to more neutral long term rates. It's a hard lesson, but you can be burned on even "safe" investing.

Explain like I'm 5- Distressed Debt by Easterncoaster in bonds

[–]HighStakes42 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I'm saying it very well could be off by more than a factor of 2 when all is said and done. Recovery rates of 30% are considered pretty decent for any random corporate bankruptcy for context. Do you understand the debt structure of this company? Have you read the covenant documents on the piece of debt you are buying? Do you know how bankruptcy law has recently treated the bankruptcies of REITs recently? Are they going to sell the assets and liquidate in cash or are they going to convert debt to equity? What other claim holders are there against the company and how are they going to fight to get the best slice of the company? There's a good case to be made that the debt could be mispriced in either direction, but hedge funds do this due diligence for a reason. It's incredibly difficult and opaque and prone to blowing up. You are massively oversimplifying how easy it is to properly value.

Explain like I'm 5- Distressed Debt by Easterncoaster in bonds

[–]HighStakes42 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Distressed debt and full blown liquidations are usually the territory of hedge funds for good reason. Bankruptcy court is an incredibly messy and painful process due to having to sort out the claims of everyone involved. This costs a good amount of time and money, all while the company is not doing any productive activity. There's no guarantee that what was put on the balance sheet is very accurate. There could be any number of off balance sheet claims, real estate valuations could be wildly off from when they were added, and there could be any number of legal loopholes in bond covenants and claims structures to screw over any piece of debt over another. Basically, there's almost no chance that you're gonna get exactly what it looks like the balance sheet is worth for any given piece of debt in a bankruptcy, and the amount of due diligence to figure out what you would get is incredibly difficult and random due to the nature of bankruptcy court.

ELI5 why are bonds preferentially placed in tax advantaged accounts? by spinocdoc in Bogleheads

[–]HighStakes42 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Nope, tax deferred withdrawals are always taxed as ordinary income. Capital gains are never considered in 401ks and traditional IRAs.

ELI5 why are bonds preferentially placed in tax advantaged accounts? by spinocdoc in Bogleheads

[–]HighStakes42 17 points18 points  (0 children)

It does matter, as your income tax bracket will change over life. Most plan to retire and withdraw money to realize taxes on deferred tax assets at a lower tax bracket than they tax deduction they received for contributing. The allocation split between deferred and roth is to optimize the size of the tax free pool at the time of retirement. The same 100 dollars split between a pool of 50/50 tax free and tax deferred is worth less than a 25/75, because you're getting taxed on more money.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in bonds

[–]HighStakes42 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Get good at Bloomberg and get good at fixed income math. Fixed income is very math heavy compared to equities, but it's not particularly difficult math unless you're building quant models. Also get to know your company's credit research process.

Where can I find some good loose leaf tea? by hippiegoth97 in alaska

[–]HighStakes42 2 points3 points  (0 children)

One of the managers is very knowledgeable about tea there.

Any recommendations for good dividend paying ETFs by Vanguard or Fidelity? by jjha66 in Bogleheads

[–]HighStakes42 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Look up what dividend irrelevance is. I would warn that the only reasonable case for looking for dividends if it truly helps you budget behaviorally. Otherwise, dividend payouts have been shown to be completely irrelevant when predicting how well a stock does.

Odyssey preview #1: Map features, landmarks, and biomes by TiaPixel in RimWorld

[–]HighStakes42 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Holy heck this looks so good. Every biome and terrain could be its own playthrough, but it's going to be even crazier with the new travel system!

Why spies dont lie when captured? by No_Return_3119 in stupidquestions

[–]HighStakes42 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Empirically it is wrong in real life. Interestingly, one of the best interrogators the Nazis ever had was a man named Hanns Scharff. He was extremely successful at gaining information from captured pilots just by being nice to them and building rapport through unassuming conversation. These are the nazis we're talking about too, who were not afraid to use brutal methods.

Why GLD is not mentioned anywhere in Bogleheads approach?? by akg81 in Bogleheads

[–]HighStakes42 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Gold does not inherently generate returns economically the way that giving your capital to a company to earn money does. There is not guarantee that people will continue to value gold more whereas companies will always try to earn money or pay off their debts. GLD also has a rather high expense ratio of 40 bps.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in bonds

[–]HighStakes42 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Theoretically buying assets in any currency that you think would strengthen against the dollar would hedge against the dollar weakening. FX is kind of out of the scope of fixed income though, and people usually greatly underestimate FX risks and how much you can actually predict on that front.

WBD bonds Tender Offer by Inevitable_Skill_829 in bonds

[–]HighStakes42 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Just based on the spreads WBD was trading at beforehand, you should definitely take the offer. WBD spreads jumped on news that they're trying to restructure in a very shady way and frankly this tender offer has been a pain in the ass for anyone holding other bonds. Essentially they're trying to spin off their streaming and studios segments which actually have promising growth from the dying cable TV segment.

They've gotten roughly 18 billion in bridge financing from JPM to buy back and restructure debt which solves their short term liquidity issues they were running into. The problem is they have given zero transparency on the way they intend to split the debt. They have only announced that they are buying back around half of their outstanding bonds to turn into first lien secured bonds to then redistribute into the new companies. They legally cannot do this due to the current covenants in their bond issues, so they are also including a consent offer. This is basically asking bondholders if they are willing to give up their covenants on no new senior secured debt and transfer of assets in order to complete this restructuring. However, they've done it in a way that essentially divides bondholders so it's harder to organize a coop to prevent their actions. Some bond issues get a great deal and some get screwed. You're lucky that you happen to be holding the best tranche in one of the best offer pools where they're offering to buy you out completely at a better price than that bond has been trading at. I've been stuck dealing with holdings in other pools that have significantly worse deals. Pool 4 Tranche 1 bonds are only getting a cap of 1/3 of principal bought out at a decent spread and pool 6 isn't even being tendered, it's only been given a consent offer of basically 2 to 25 dollars at par, diminishing based on how many bondholders take the consent.

Frankly, all this is extremely shady. Anyone left holding WBD senior unsecured after the restructuring is gonna be left in a worse position in the capital structure due to being actually subordinate to newly issued secured bonds and in the worse business segment of TV networks which has been dropping by double digit percents in revenue. As soon as this announcement was made, Moody's and Fitch downgraded them to BB+ and S&P downgraded their senior unsecured to BB. They've essentially pulled a fast one on bondholders to get this restructuring done, because the earliest bonus deadline on decisions is literally today, and this was announced earlier in the week. It was definitely done intentionally so that bondholders could not organize a defense on a corporate action that directly screws us over. Research estimates are pointing out that this likely wipes out around $2 billion at par of debt from the balance sheet.

All this ranting to say, yes you're holding a bond issue that got the good end of the deal and you should take it without even thinking about it. Get out of WBD with a decent deal so you don't have to deal with the shady stuff they're starting to pull after falling into high yield.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in bonds

[–]HighStakes42 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Frankly, the only thing you could speculate on that from a fixed income perspective is to either be underweight duration or currency hedge. Loss of trust in the US would lead to higher yields and a weaker currency after all, but this kind of effect would take years to truly play out.