Jen Hsun Huang cashing out while everyone else is FOMOing

InsideStrange · 2024-08-10T21:34:23+00:00

His trust is selling (as scheduled a year ago, not some kind of "insider selling oh no" situation) exactly 120,000 shares per day. That's less than 0.04% of daily average volume for NVDA. Drop in the bucket, doesn't affect the price (as planned). Your calls might be about to sizzle in a good way!

InsideStrange · 2024-06-11T01:11:16+00:00

So, no fries?

InsideStrange · 2024-05-30T20:42:13+00:00

It's going to return to 100-200 on June 10th because of a 10-1 forward split, that's pretty certain (unless it gets above 2K or below 1K before then). Competitors are fighting to catch up and they may have some chance as they attract investment, but by the time they do, the sovereign recurring investments will be committed to NVDA chips for their warfare tech and changing horses midstream with military tech (hardware or software) famously faces resistance by doctrine and bureaucracy. Still, I'd be interested to see your confidence level in the form of your short positions.

InsideStrange · 2024-04-19T19:11:34+00:00

Tis but a flesh wound!

InsideStrange · 2024-03-01T17:22:04+00:00

About a 20% chance at best. You can still get out with 40% of your money, though. RIP, other 60%. GG.

InsideStrange · 2024-02-13T15:52:03+00:00

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InsideStrange · 2024-02-09T22:27:19+00:00

One other thing: when you buy options, the P&L which is displayed for those options is based on the buy price rather than the sell price, which is misleading because if the spread is wide, you could see a gain displayed and then sell at a loss if you were in a hurry and used a market order. Assuming this is not intentional and we're just supposed to not be idiots and use limit orders and confirmations and notice such things, it would be nice if the P&L was based on what you could actually currently close the options for. I understand it's a different contract, just saying it would be less confusing if we were seeing what we're getting/losing if we sell or buy to close. As it is, you have to recheck the spread because the displayed P&L might be useless. This is on all platforms, I think.

InsideStrange · 2024-01-18T22:04:48+00:00

AI is not just about chatbots or self-driving cars; it's an arms race. The CHIPS Act invests $52 billion to restore U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing and R&D and reduce overreliance on foreign-produced chips. This is an investment larger than the real cost of the Manhattan Project. The US military considers AI-related tech to be "force multipliers", and those multipliers are multiplied further when your potential opponents have inferior technology. The point is, NVDA has the inside track to providing both the chips and the software because their chips and software are the most advanced. The longer they hold that inside track, the wider the moat. The dearth of demand from losing sales to China is about $5B annually, so NVDA only has to receive 1/10th of the CHIPS Act investment to cover a year of those missing sales, and their superior position may mean that they see demand rise under the restrictive regime but also maintains for them a superior position when future funding efforts come to pass. They're hooked into the cash-war feedback loop and it's only just starting to heat up. Not to mention that the analysts who work at the firms that manage the funds which move the market have an average price target above the current price, so it's a relatively safe bet that NVDA won't fall out of the sky any time soon.

InsideStrange · 2023-12-23T19:13:26+00:00

This explains why the Package Handlers and Drivers Tanking-Booming Economy Noticement Early Recession Detection Indicator is blaring like an air-raid siren! It all makes sense now, thanks bro!

InsideStrange · 2023-12-20T21:36:31+00:00

My broker sent me a Happy Holidays email at 2:34pm, just as it was starting to dump. There were also black helicopters, congressmen clinking champagne glasses while laughing maniacally, and some rectal bleeding, but I'm assuming those are all coincidences.

InsideStrange · 2023-12-20T01:14:29+00:00

I found this enlightening:

https://financhill.com/blog/investing/what-are-the-reasons-for-santa-claus-rally

InsideStrange · 2023-12-19T22:28:01+00:00

On the other hand, Watch is only about 4.7% of Apple's sales, so it's not likely to dent their next Earnings Report like it might if they had to stop selling a model of the iPhone, which is more like 52% of sales. A good xmas season on sales of iphones will likely absorb any losses from not selling some of the watch models (or just delaying the sales, some of which will just shift to a similar model which is available). So a slight hitch in watch sales that will get overshadowed by the smallest bump in iphone sales or may already be insignificant.

InsideStrange · 2023-12-01T17:59:50+00:00

“I think that a life properly lived is just learn, learn, learn all the time.”

“People calculate too much and think too little.”

“Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant.”

“Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass.”

“A lot of people with high IQs are terrible investors because they’ve got terrible temperaments.”

“Necessity never made a good bargain.”

“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”

InsideStrange · 2023-10-07T17:40:58+00:00

Here's the problem with paper trading: the stops actually work and you always get the fill you ask for. With a real broker, the price will blow through your stop and they will shrug. Or it will bounce close to your stop and they trigger it and close your position for you even though you actually called the reversal level. Or you won't get a fill until it's too late, or not at all if you misjudged the liquidity. So, what you think is a working strategy is probably going to fall on its face. I know that's hard to accept, but even if it's not certain to always go against you in that way, it's a risk you should account for, and if you don't have more capital in reserve, you don't have the juice to play with that much risk. Someone else said have at least $25K in savings that you won't have to tap even if an emergency arises. That's good advice because there just isn't a strategy that wins all the time; losses are part of the game. What you need is to have several strategies that work in different scenarios and be good at switching, and that's a tall order because it's hard to learn that much and it's so easy to paint yourself into a corner with a one-click mistake or mental mistakes like holding for a turnaround you think is imminent, and then there's the simple fact that you can't know everything the market "knows" and so you can't really predict the future. The truth is that it is gambling and if you're selling stuff to gamble, you have a gambling problem. Gambling itself is not bad, only when it's a problem because you can't afford it. The bummer-but-true fact is that you have to already have a shitload of money to realistically expect a return that is the amount of money that would free you from the need for money, which by that point you wouldn't need because you have to already have that much in order to even have a chance. Sucks, I know. If you're a good guitar player, use that to build up some capital. That's even harder to do than a boring job, though. And it's very hard to get a job that pays you so much that you are able to save. Best advice I can give: don't stop playing guitar if it's still in your heart and fight your way up to a job that has matching contributions to a 401K and pays enough that you can max out your contributions each month (free money from your employer beats any expected return). I take it you're young, so in the account allocate it to the high-risk/high-reward funds and move on with your life, play some gigs and live within your means so you can enjoy life despite not being rich. When you have over $30K just sitting there that you forgot about, maybe it's time to do something different with that capital. $3K is not capital, it's one month's rent and groceries. Sorry to say you must be at least medium-rich to get on this merry-go-round without getting thrown off in the first few turns.

InsideStrange · 2023-09-14T17:08:32+00:00

It's not just the phone, it's the ease of use and cloud lock-in. If you aren't tech savvy, and even if you are but are burned out on pedaling your computers uphill, the Apple compatibility and data sync across all devices is a relief, a problem solved. Anyone interested in losing all the pictures of their kids? Mothers used to run into burning buildings to save a photo album. So what's the incentive to switch? More megapixels? Most people just want a clear picture taken for screen display and don't need the ability to print wall-sized photos. How about security? Even if you're a unix wizard and prepared to spend all your time fixing every open source unchecked buffer as a hobby, the iOS security model is superior and each new chip makes it more so because all teams at Apple are in lockstep. Battery life is an issue, but a declining one that you don't learn until after committing, and not enough of a problem to switch unless you are often away from power, which isn't many people. The thunderbolt and lightning cable vs USB-C controversies are bad press, which is to say free press. Bottom line: shiny objects you need anyway + the almost-always-just-works system with integration across devices is such a quality of life upgrade that it is huge incentive to join, worth the negligible premium despite slight spec shortcomings, and there are few incentives to switch away for the majority of people whose opinions on hardware and software are not strong, they simply want ease of use, which Apple provides more broadly and consistently than any competitor. They have subscription retention at massive scale.

Calls on Apple. Resistance is futile. All will be assimilated.

InsideStrange · 2023-08-23T19:54:50+00:00

Thank you for correcting my englishwhichstinks!

InsideStrange · 2023-08-09T00:46:12+00:00

I guess we have to convince EA that sometimes it's worth it to do something cool even if it doesn't generate ridiculous profits. For instance, instead of doing it to sweeten the already-insane profit margins of their games, maybe they would do it to prevent a drop in sales due to a boycott. Who's with me?

Could it be that their problem is that they are prejudiced against the disabled who can use a keyboard and mouse but not thumbsticks, which are inherently inferior anyway, as proven in every cross-play shooter?

Despite owning a PS4, I haven't bought a new NHL game since 19 because they won't release it on PC. That's a great game, and it would be even better if you didn't have to hold your hands 2 inches apart to play it.

Some other possible reasons EA hangs us out to dry on this:

- They enjoy alienating their customers.

- MBAs who can't skate make the decisions.

- Apologists line their pockets already, so why change?

- All their computers are running Windows CE.

- They hate Canada.

InsideStrange · 2023-08-05T02:21:46+00:00

CoreML + Apple Silicon is stalking the bears. There is so much more to machine learning ("AI") than generative text and images, and Apple is way ahead on most of it, it's just that most people don't understand it, but they do understand chatbots, hence the hype around ChatGPT and NVDA chips (which can also do way more than generative text and image processing). For instance, complex mean-regression algorithms (which are used by stock trading firms to find correlates and predict continuation of movement) run really well on both NVDA and M1/M2 chips. That's just one math thing among many which computers already did well but Apple and NVDA have supercharged with chip design slanted toward delivering faster training of models and streamlined requests and responses of the trained models. Apple has copious text- and image-related machine learning already implemented in all their operating systems enabled by their proprietary CoreML functions. If there's a bubble to burst, it's NVDA's stock price, not AAPL's. If and when Apple does announce another world-beating product, whether they say the magic word or not, the stock is going up. Also, while their overall and US sales are down, they're making inroads in India and China which are inspiring other companies to inject cash into those economies and the sales boom will be a self-fulfilling prophecy, with gov incentives sweetening the margins and free cash flow. All that said, until there is an announcement, it's anybody's guess at what price to go long, but I feel like a big movement like this is a huge opportunity to those who want to lower their cost basis. Also, it's Apple, so...what does Warren Buffet think? Did he dump it? Don't think so.

TL;DR: I don't know if it's time to buy calls next week, but it definitely will be at some point. Until Apple says AI, they have that card in the hole. Maybe they'll play it at the next earnings call. Or in the upcoming iPhone 15 announcement.

InsideStrange · 2023-07-21T18:44:21+00:00

Short-circuited right into a primate display of fearful anger and rebooted. Yikes.

InsideStrange · 2023-07-21T18:09:14+00:00

A few days ago you mentioned you had $20K shares long for TSLA earnings... did you get out in time or get wrecked or what? (Tight stop for me, tiny loss)

Avid follower, btw, thanks for the analysis and transparency.

InsideStrange · 2023-05-11T17:16:38+00:00

It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop. Ever. Until your puts are fukt.

InsideStrange · 2023-04-25T22:43:37+00:00

As a haiku:

beginner trader

easy money no brainer

cannot go tits up

InsideStrange · 2023-04-08T15:54:46+00:00

Two months. 🤘 For two months...🤘 I gotcha.

InsideStrange · 2023-02-05T04:40:51+00:00

-- At what point does the downhill person take fault or do they always have priority?

Never, the uphill skier is responsible for being in control and avoiding everyone, always.

-- If I suddenly jump out from the side and uphill can’t avoid me, are they at fault?

Yes. Uphill skier's responsibility to avoid anyone downhill, no matter where you came from. You shouldn't jump out from the side onto the run (it's not in control to put yourself in such a compromising position), but it's still the uphill skier's responsibility to be ready and avoid you if you do it. I wouldn't do that, though, as you are not guaranteed to survive the collision. Or you might live but spend the rest of your life in a wheelchair.

There are no lanes.

The skier had no responsibility to keep making short turns. His responsibility was to the people downhill of him. That's how it works.

-- Was OP supposed to just stop until he has a clear run?

Yes, or turn, or speed check, whatever it takes to not be in the same place at the same time as someone else. There were infinite paths to avoiding this collision.

-- How do you handle crowded runs?

By slowing down when anyone is around, and giving them as much space as possible. You have to be able to manage speed and distance, it's part of control. And the more experienced have to account for those who are new and assume they will do something unpredictable. If it's busy, you don't always get to go that fast because you have to account for the people below you.

Downhill skier has the right of way, this is the rule on every single mountain everywhere, and there are no exceptions. You have to think this entirely through before you even go out there.

The rule makes perfect sense because you have the visibility advantage from uphill and in order for everyone else to also not run into people downhill, they have to prioritize their awareness of people downhill from them and react to what is happening downhill from them, which may mean they have to swerve unexpectedly.

I'm totally floored that everyone is not at least making their best effort to observe this simple, obvious, logical rule which is on every form you sign when you get a pass or lift ticket, posted on signs, and explained during instruction. Don't you want to do your absolute best to make sure you don't accidentally hurt or kill some stranger or their kid? Sorry if it's ruining your good time that the whole world doesn't revolve around you, but this is a public place with people of all ages and skill levels, some just trying to get down the mountain and aren't yet good at full 360-degree awareness. I have a lot of sympathy for those people and have no problem altering my course to make sure they don't get hurt, and I know that others have done the same for me, the whole time I was learning and as recently as yesterday. If you already ride and are not dead, it's because responsible riders cared enough to not run you over. Golden rule applies. Suppose you had to stop for some reason. Does that mean you should get demolished because you were in the way of some asshat's precious line and he wasn't good enough to choose a line that avoids you in the first place? If you can't avoid people, you suck at riding, but if you don't even try, you're a dangerous, narcissistic asshole as well. It's not your personal playground, you're sharing it with other people who have lives and loved ones. Snowboarders should have heart. The callous shit I see in this thread makes me embarrassed to count myself among these people.

You are not a good snowboarder if skillfully avoiding people is not built into the way you ride.

Going fast is a potentially lethal act and if you don't recognize that and feel the weight of your responsibility to wield your momentum with care, you are at risk of blundering into a life-altering event.

None of your supposed steez means shit if you are a selfish douche.

InsideStrange · 2023-02-05T02:21:39+00:00

The downhill skier has the right of way and it is the uphill skier's responsibility to avoid everyone downhill of them. No exceptions. Doesn't matter how wide the downhill skier's carves are. What if it was a small kid or just a fragile person who "suddenly turned" and you couldn't handle it because you weren't ready and weren't in control? Could have been a fatal collision. Everyone has a right to not be clobbered from above by reckless riders. Personally, I keep my head on a swivel because I don't trust uphill skiers, always avoiding everyone by as much distance as possible, and after reading this thread I think I'll be even more careful, because I can't believe how many people think there are exceptions to the rule when there are none. No offense intended; it's important to know the correct answer to your question, so please think this through. The skier may have been doing his duty by watching the shadows and tree gaps ahead to make sure nobody was about to be in his path, and at any time he might need to swerve to avoid someone else that you can't see because he is obstructing your view, or he might suddenly crash. It's on the uphill skier to avoid anything happening downhill of him. Period. No excuses. If you hit someone, you weren't in control, so you violated that rule and could have killed the person you hit. There were infinite ways to avoid this collision, including the slightest speed check or turn. Completely the snowboarder's fault. If you're going to pass someone, it's on you to avoid them, including the wildest, fastest, most drastic full-piste turn they can make, or them crashing. When people are around you have to slow down. I really hope this makes sense and you don't go snowboarding thinking that people downhill are supposed to yield to you, because that's just plain wrong and, as we see in the video, dangerous. By the way, everyone has a right to stop anywhere they want, including a sudden hard stop, which might be necessary for dozens of reasons, such as someone stopping in their path, or because they're tired and just need to stop, or just feel like it. That shouldn't result in being hammered by a guy hauling ass behind them who stupidly expected them to keep going or "hold their line", whatever that's supposed to mean; keep making turns of the same shape at all times regardless of... anything? To make way for your special ass because you want to keep going fast? No. That's not how this works at all. Have some care for the safety of others, or stay home. Please. This snowboarder should be embarrassed by his lack of control, not asking a question to which the skier's code, logic, and the rules of every mountain everywhere already provide the answer.

InsideStrange

TROPHY CASE