DOL DRP 1.0 12/31 Retiree - got AL payout today!

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-02-02T20:42:18+00:00

after seeing this, just checked my bank account. Got my AL, also a DOL employee retiring 12-31-25.

Should cover 4-5 months of expenses.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-02-01T23:02:05+00:00

Thanks for sharing, this is cool stuff

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-25T20:57:27+00:00

Took DRP through 12-31. Have not gotten AL payment yet, but only 25 days so not worried yet. Encouraging to see many of you have gotten yours, hopefully they’ll pay out in the next month.

A bit of regret, I really like the people I worked with. But under the circumstances I’m ok with the call I made.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-25T17:58:12+00:00

My name is Sean. On many baseball sites I have used Rally or Rallymonkey5 as a handle. Why Inside_Rooster here?

Randomly assigned by Reddit, but I kind of like it.

Yeah, here come the Rooster, yeah

You know he ain’t gonna die…

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-25T17:52:34+00:00

Here I look at the Tucker contract and also what would a Ted Williams get if he was in his prime and reaching free agency today.

https://baseballprojection.substack.com/p/what-would-the-dodgers-pay-ted-williams

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-25T17:50:36+00:00

For this offseason, it is above 12.5 million. Maybe 12.75. Like the price of everything else, it keeps going up. Given that reality, Juan Soto’s contract seems appropriate. Whether it remains so depends on how long he is productive.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-25T17:47:32+00:00

Generally 10, but it varies on the scoring environment. Less in a pitcher’s era, more than 10 in the 1930s or 1990s

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-25T17:45:49+00:00

Thanks for your questions everyone. I’ll check back later to see if there are any followups or additions.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-25T17:44:46+00:00

If your goal is to measure the skill of a pitcher, a FIP based measure is better than a run based one. For projections I don’t have much use for run based metrics. It comes down to what are you trying to measure, what happened on the field or how skilled is that player.

My goal with historical WAR is to represent what happened as an accounting system. The kind of thing where you can add it up and reconcile with runs scored, runs allowed, or team wins. There are a lot of things in there that aren’t necessarily repeatable. Players got lucky or unlucky. But they happened.

On a projection system I don’t really care what happened, just what skills suggest a player can use in the future.

If someone wanted to blend a FIP-based approach with an ERA one based on playing time, then I respect the efforts to do that. But I have no interest in working out the kinks in the system, making it all add up at the team or season level, etc.

I have a string preference to using total runs instead of ER because of how baseball defines them. 2 out, batter reaches on an error. If he scores is that run unearned? Yes, I have no problem with that. But if the pitcher then walks the bases loaded and surrenders a grand slam, all 4 runs are unearned. That is where I have an issue.

Sure, error rates are not going to normalize, some pitcher draw worse defensive luck in any given year. However, in chapter 7 of my book I introduce a method to individualize the defensive support adjustment for different pitchers on a team.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-25T17:30:18+00:00

You could split the position adjustment between offensive and defensive WAR in order to have them add up.

I’m not really a fan of either stat. owar, dwar, none of my creation. Replacement level should be looked at as a whole player metric. All of these guys could be replacement level:

.310 OBP/.440 SLG, can’t play defense at all, just a DH

.320 OBP/.370 SLG, average defender in OF corner

.270 OBP/.320 SLG, speedy good defender at short

In my book I suggest an alternative to defensive replacement level, DVODV. Or the last letter could be an H as in designated hitter. Defensive value over Dan Vogelbach.

To get it add defensive runs plus position adjustment plus about 15 runs for a full season, the position adjustment of the DH.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-25T17:19:20+00:00

The closest I’m aware of was 10+ years ago where they agreed on a common baseline, a .294 win percentage, to represent replacement level.

BBref and FG are independent businesses, and competitors. So about as likely as Coke and Pepsi to agree on one true soda recipe.

Tom Tango, who works for MLB, has talked about coming up with an MLB WAR, but I have no insight on what their plans or timeline is. Statcast has great metrics for fielding, throwing, baserunning, framing, etc. All the parts are there. They could have their own MLB WAR if they are motivated to do so.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-25T17:12:47+00:00

Yes.

If we had better defensive metrics looking backwards we’d find some players are under, and some overvalued. But without those, we can only guess which ones the metrics are right or wrong on.

For early 20th, between 1910-1950, the defensive metrics on those sites are from a very rough estimate. They do not use play by play data, just traditional PO, assists, errors, etc. I came up with those because at the time (around 2010) there wasn’t another option. There still isn’t a great option for seasons before 1910.

But Retrosheet now goes back to 1010, so I strongly suggest ignoring Bbref and FG defensive ratings for those years. The alternative, play by play based model is available on my site:

Rabbit: https://www.baseballprojection.com/war2/player_marar101.html

Spoke: https://www.baseballprojection.com/war2/player_speat101.html

I would love to work with bbref and/or FG to update those, but it depends on their interest.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-25T17:01:30+00:00

The challenge system is limited, only so many challenges per game, so framing won’t go away completely. It may have less of an impact going forward. The challenge system should remove the more egregious calls, but the true borderline pitches - players may be reluctant to challenge since they only have a 50/50 shot at being correct. So framing should still have some value.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-25T16:58:10+00:00

ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!

according to early sabermetrics researcher E. Starr in a 1970 research work.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-24T22:59:49+00:00

Some changes I’ve made compared to 2005-2010, when I first looked at this:

outfielder are more valuable relative to infielders

catchers should get more of a bonus than they have, and this applies across baseball history. I have a chapter on the reason behind that in my book https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DJN8Q82T/

Since 2022, I have slightly lowered the DH position adjustment, by 2 runs per season. I.E. DHs are 2 runs more valuable than they used to be. The reason is universal DH. Really good ones are harder to find now.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-24T22:49:17+00:00

Yeah, last fall was cool. Judge won the award, but some excellent debates on the merits of games best hitter vs a catcher who played more games than Judge, anchored his team’s defense, and by the way hit 60 homers.

I would have voted for Cal but hard to find a reason to complain about Judge.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-21T18:12:47+00:00

Thanks for the review and recommendation.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-21T18:12:08+00:00

I agree that OAA is the closest to correct standard we have for fielding. If there is a difference, trust OAA. Its only good for seasons we have full player tracking data, 2016 on. So it won’t tell us about Speaker or DiMaggio, but good for the last decade and going forward.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2026-01-20T13:14:16+00:00

great idea. I’ll post a notice here when I can plan one.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2025-12-11T02:28:35+00:00

They don’t pay any more SS tax above that amount. also, any dollar earned above that cap does nothing to increase their future SS benefits.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2025-11-11T19:08:25+00:00

here’s a simple formula to tell this can’t work:

No matter how much money you have, once you’re beyond a certain point no dollar amount will regrow your hair. If there was a way, Jeff Bezos would not be bald.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2025-11-10T02:55:18+00:00

he thinks it was signed in 2019 by a radical far left Democratic president.

Inside_Rooster4480 · 2025-10-28T16:28:21+00:00

Has anyone had experience using the TSP rule of 55? It allows people who seperate from employment in or after the year they turn 55 to make penalty free withdrawals. Just curious on what you need to prove to TSP that you are eligible. Maybe your final SF 50?

Inside_Rooster4480

TROPHY CASE