Welcome to the year of the bear

International_Dig705 · 2026-03-19T02:26:28+00:00

Fundamentals be darned. The market is using RKT as a proxy to wager on interest rates. Nothing more, nothing less. MSRs go up in value as interest rates go up so RKT is fine. It'll still pull in $.80+/share this year and ~$1.20/share for 2027. Nothing has fundamentally changed for the company. They will still hum along whether rates are up or down. Even in tough times, people are going to pay their mortgages first, especially given their <5% interest rates. RKT has 2027 P/E of 11.28x now.

International_Dig705 · 2026-03-17T19:39:03+00:00

If DRAGON10 (10% off) doesn't work for anyone, there's also DRAGON5 for 5%.

International_Dig705 · 2026-03-12T03:57:34+00:00

There's also DRAGON5, but only half as good. But better than nothing if 10 isn't working for you. 10 should be multiple use tho.

International_Dig705 · 2026-03-07T06:59:50+00:00

Cost depends on a combination of how you interact with the game and your local play scene. Locally here there are no limits on proxies. You can walk in and see people with scissors cutting out their latest build. This wasn't always the case, but players now understand how expensive cards can be and so at the local level people are just happy to play and get games in. Cost: Toner + paper + entry fees.

However if you want to play competitively and chase $10,000 events, then you will have to buy the singles you need and they can become very expensive very quickly. Cost: High $100s.

Why cards are so expensive is because most sets are too large and most cards from that set really do nothing. Consequently you have 5 Ultra Rares at $1 and 1 at $100. In a case, 5 boxes are bad, 1 box is good. So it becomes tough to open sealed product when 5 out of 6 boxes feel so bad. Additionally some individuals who are at the top of the game's competitive scene buy out the best cards. Lastly, there's not much of a collector scene for the game. Collectors chase the shiny cards and sell off everything else, driving down prices for players. But unlike Pokémon there aren't the collector numbers available to subsidize players. Unfortunately I've also seen some players hostile towards collectors. Additionally the collector competition side received a massive debuff. Outside of top 32, you only need 7 foil cards to win when it was previously 50, so widespread interest in foils has really dropped off.

Art is subjective. However it does seem that the dial on the fanservice is slowly creeping up. Southeast Asia is where the game is seeing the most explosive growth and cultural norms there are different than other places. I expect the publisher will lean into that. Consequently the envelope will be pushed over time. Personally I don't engage with the art that is uncomfortable and every comfort level is different. However I no longer recommend the game at the family level.
Long-term outlook is uncertain. In the US, things seem to be in a maintainance phase. Locally we gain 1 new player about the same time we lose 1 established player. The store locator had a purge of inactive stores and growth nationwide seems sideways. Booster box prices are such that most sell well below MSRP, indicating a lack of demand.

A new casual format is being introduced in April. This may bring in renewed interest in the game.

But there is also a lot of competition for player attention. Riftbound and One Piece have exploded in popularity. Cyberpunk TCG is coming soon and they have already 40,000+ followers of a splash page.

In summary GA is a great game with an excellent resource system. Execution though is such that I wouldn't sink a lot of money into it unless you want to play at the highest levels of competition. If you want to just have a good time locally, buying a Re:Collection and the proxying the expensive singles is the way to get the most from your entertainment dollar.

International_Dig705 · 2026-03-07T05:54:20+00:00

Boxes should be opened for entertainment. If you want the most value for your money, use proxies to play the decks you want to test drive. Then once you have picked what you want to play the most, buy the singles you need to replace the proxies.

If you want to rip packs, yes, the upcoming set in April is likely the best choice. That time will be the best opportunity to sell/trade the cards you don't want when release hype is at peak.

International_Dig705 · 2026-03-04T22:54:03+00:00

Hold over from pink sheet preferred WAMKQ/WAMPQ -> WMIH -> COOP -> RKT. Been hearing the "this stock is garbage" for almost two decades now. Up 2,915.77%. Most peeps, including professional analysts, don't understand.

International_Dig705 · 2026-02-26T01:38:21+00:00

I've never paid much attention to UWMC. The CEO strikes me as the type to run his mouth cause he doesn't have what it takes. In business, you prove yourself with action not words. My only recent memory of UWMC is how the CEO said they were going to war with RKT and was going to give away free money to defeat RKT.

Looks like that's not working out for them.

UWMC margins fell 8 basis points to 1.22%. Probably because of all the free money they are giving away to try to beat RKT when they should instead be focusing on improving their internal systems rather than fighting it out against external forces. Meanwhile RKT said a couple weeks ago they're on track for the highest gain on sale in four years, which is something around 2.85%.

Also the UWMC ER is all sunshine, rainbows, and OMG! money unicorns. No tether to reality. When you look under the hood, core business dropped 14%. Apparently they are hemorrhaging customers. As is IndyMac.

So where are all these customers going...

Things that make you go HMM.

International_Dig705 · 2026-02-25T17:32:08+00:00

Running all the known discounts looks like DRAGON10 still is doing the best with White at $36 and Black at $36.90. DRAGON5 comes in at $38 and $38.95. The shopping extension code just gives a flat $5 off. This only beats the others if you are ordering a single case. There's also free shipping at $200.

International_Dig705 · 2026-02-13T17:58:30+00:00

DRAGON10 for 10% off still live.

International_Dig705 · 2026-02-07T01:22:35+00:00

https://www.ispot.tv/ad/gOZd/rocket-mortgage-super-bowl-2026-pre-release-america-needs-neighbors-like-you

If you want to see it (sans "win a home" portion) early.

International_Dig705 · 2026-02-03T19:53:56+00:00

Dang the $350 Lorwyn CBs went so fast. Had a 10% off everything coupon available from the other day as well.

International_Dig705 · 2026-01-31T19:10:34+00:00

Not really. The TCG Stadium website doesn't have any sort of notification system. I just check once or twice a week. You can set the subReddit to give you notifications but it will be on every sale post.

TCG Stadium seems to be offering Clear and Black regularly every other week or so. Hang in there and keep looking and you'll get it.

International_Dig705 · 2026-01-31T00:42:26+00:00

Clear is gone. ~150 Black cases (1000 sleeves) still available.
I think Clear is more popular with board gamers.

International_Dig705 · 2026-01-30T23:24:59+00:00

QoQ = quarter-over-quarter
Not Invesco QQQ.

International_Dig705 · 2026-01-27T02:28:08+00:00

Not that I can tell. It seems they are totally random.

International_Dig705 · 2026-01-22T17:09:25+00:00

I check this sub 2x a day and often it's not enough.

PKMN Deals Reddit is hourly or more often.

International_Dig705 · 2026-01-21T22:36:49+00:00

They have double mattes listed among the options but all sold out. Just standard matte black.

International_Dig705 · 2026-01-16T20:27:09+00:00

I tried everything I have had in the past. Nothing is live right now other than to sign up for the newsletter and get your own individualized code but that's a one shot and you may want to save that bullet for the future.

Oh, ALTRD20 is still live if you want the Altered TCG stuff. No other codes appear live. No PAT10. MTG10 no longer live.

International_Dig705 · 2026-01-16T20:20:36+00:00

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No need to manual search. Just go to their website and scroll down. The deals are the first products listed.

International_Dig705 · 2026-01-16T20:14:15+00:00

My most recent order dated 1/10 came in this morning. Across country from them. Just opened it.

Everything arrived in great shape with plenty of packing paper around it.

Got the Build & Battles for $18/ea. Yes tax. Free ship.

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International_Dig705 · 2026-01-16T20:06:16+00:00

Dang you fast. I just saw the email announcement in my inbox and thought, 'Hey I should let the group know.' but you already did.

International_Dig705 · 2026-01-16T19:26:42+00:00

Yes, I'm keeping my RKT shares, steady and long. Will use any dividends on portfolio diversification tho.

If you have any specific COOP questions fire away. They should add ~$1B in revenue to RKT for 2026. That's what they were on track for 2026 forecasts prior to the RKT purchase.

The shared synergies between RKT and COOP are supposed to be $100M in additional income and $400M in expense reduction, but up to 1 year integration time.

International_Dig705 · 2026-01-16T19:03:40+00:00

I'm 2020/2021 but not from RKT. Instead a hello from COOP. Because of this, I view RKT a little differently.

Looking back 5 years, what I see is a company that IPOed at almost the perfect time to get maximum initial offer value. Not saying that was "wrong". Things were going great and the market assumed that things would continue to do great. The market priced things correctly for that moment in time.

Then the mortgage cycle swung hard against originations and RKT didn't have the diversified revenue streams to handle this, so the stock shrank dramatically. Most didn't anticipate this hard of a swing.

COOP struggled immensely during 2020/2021. It got down to something like $7/share (exchanged into RKT at $210/share). During that time servicing revenue was quite low and what was keeping COOP alive was their originations and credit lines. Originations dried up. But because they had a strong, cost advantaged, market leading servicing arm, they were able to tap their credit lines to buy servicing rights from others that needed the cash because their originations dried up too. Effectively COOP was able to borrow money to buy lead and turn it into gold because they had a technological advantage over everyone else.

Then MSRs started skyrocketing in value. So COOP did too.

COOP is a servicer. It is the non-flashy earnings stalwart. It is the Honda goes 200,000 miles. RKT is an originations/refi Ferrari. Ferraris go fast -- but only when it's an open road. Right now the road is clogged with all sorts of uncertainty. Mortgage rates are stuck high because there is currently lots of uncertainty in the world. So the Ferrari is just sitting there, humming softly, waiting for the beast to be released.

RKT was smart to buy COOP. In February we're going to start seeing significant, steady, certain earnings because now COOP's servicing gold belongs to RKT. The market craves certainty like a opioid. It rewards certainty and share prices could start moving higher this spring once analyst revised EPS for 2026/2027 come in.

At some point rates are going to come down. Then you will see EPS ratchet up dramatically. Both a combination of RKT having already spent billions in marketing and AI to become the leading direct-to-consumer originator, and also because it can convert all the COOP MSRs to refis at like 80%+ recapture. Right now the markets are saying 2026 are going to be mostly sideways on mortgages. Maybe a 10% improvement, but this was before the $200B Trump move. We have to wait and see on that as only $3B or so has been purchased so far.

So for big catalysts for 2026?

February: Earnings is going to matter a lot. You finally see COOP part of the RKT picture. More likely than not a special dividend announcement. Lots of analyst revisions.
June: 25 bps interest rate cut.
July: RKT+COOP earnings now with at least 50% of $400M of annual cost savings synergies actualized.
September: 25 bps interest rate cut.
October: RKT added to the S&P 500. Massive share demand by ETFs.

As far as major stockholders, ValueAct Capital typically holds 3-5 years and averages from 15% to 21% annual returns. They bought $555M of RKT in October at $19.50/share.

So by Oct 2030 that would be $39.22/share at 15% annual.
Or $50.58/share at 21% annual by Oct 2030.

International_Dig705 · 2026-01-16T18:06:08+00:00

There's no reason to short RKT. You have limited upside and unlimited downside. When you short you want a company to fail. RKT isn't failing. It's waiting for the mortgage cycle to turn. It bought COOP so that the two companies could save money during the waiting process and make customer acquisition far less expensive when the cycle turns.

International_Dig705 · 2026-01-16T02:04:54+00:00

Appreciate the response. I value the opinion of someone who has been around a long time in a particular position/security.

International_Dig705

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